Florida State vs. Miami Prediction: Week 7 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
My best Florida State vs. Miami prediction centers on Miami's high-powered offense facing a defense that has been gashed by strong offenses this season. Below, I explain why Darian Mensah should throw all over Florida State's weak secondary, as No. 3 Miami wins convincingly in a high-scoring affair.
Miami is favored by 21.5 ahead of tonight's 7 p.m. ET game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The game will air on ESPN and stream on Disney+.
Florida State vs. Miami picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 7 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Miami -21.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.95 units |
| O/U: Over 56.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 2 units to win 1.82 units |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: +2.77 units
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Florida State vs. Miami prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Over 56.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Miami leads the nation in points and yards per game, averaging 49.6 and 554.8, respectively. Led by Mensah, who has thrown 15 touchdowns and just 21 incompletions this season, Miami has scored at least 33 points in all five games this season, reaching at least 41 four times.
Miami ranks fifth in passing yards per game and is tied for third in passing yards per attempt. That's terrible news for a Florida State defense that ranks 114th in passing yards allowed per game and 109th in passing yards allowed per attempt.
Florida State has faced two top-16 scoring offenses, allowing at least 44 points in each of those games. Explosive plays have been a huge issue for Florida State, as the defense has allowed 90 plays of 10 yards or more, 27 plays of 20 yards or more, 14 plays of 30 yards or more, and nine plays of 40 yards or more. The Seminoles rank 100th or worse in each of those categories.
📡 SBR Edge: Miami's offense is balanced
While the Miami passing attack has gotten the majority of headlines, the rushing attack ranks 20th in yards per game and fourth in yards per carry. Florida State ranks 102nd in rushing yards allowed per game and 110th in rushing yards allowed per carry.
Florida State's offense is good enough to test Miami's defense
Florida State is averaging 31 points per game and has scored at least 20 points in every game this year. This unit has been battle-tested in two games against ranked teams, scoring 24 against SMU and 36 against Alabama.
Though Miami leads the nation in scoring defense, the unit has faced just one top-100 scoring offense. That team, Wake Forest, scored 20. In that game, Miami struggled to contain Gio Lopez and the rest of the passing attack, as Lopez ended with 312 passing yards. I expect Florida State's passing attack, which is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, to see similar success, especially if Miami goes up big early and starts playing prevent defense.
Score prediction: Miami 45, Florida State 21
Live Florida State vs. Miami odds
Florida State vs. Miami opening odds
- Moneyline: Florida State +1000 | Miami -1800
- Spread: Florida State +16.5 (-110) | Miami -16.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)
How to watch Florida State vs. Miami: Week 7
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 17
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: Disney+
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