Brentford vs. Liverpool Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Premier League Match
Fresh off a midweek victory in Austria, Liverpool hits the road for the west London to face undefeated Brentford side as my Brentford vs. Liverpool prediction breaks down the clash.
Brentford is lined as a +135 moneyline betting favorite on the three-way line, with Liverpool priced at +180 and the draw at +275. Action from Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford gets underway at 10 a.m. ET, airing on Peacock.
Brentford vs. Liverpool predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 cards | +100 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.5 units |
| Under 3.5 goals | -175 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.29 units |
| Liverpool Over 13.5 shots | -125 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.4 units |
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Brentford vs. Liverpool best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Over 4.5 cards (+100)
The midfield battle should offer numerous outlets to bookings in this game. Reds attacking midfielder Florian Writz will for Vitaly Janelt and Yehor Yarmoliuk to decide whether to try to follow him or protect the space behind them, but either option could open them to late challenges when Wirtz turns toward goal. In the other direction, with Ryan Gravenberch suspended, Liverpool's midfield lacks its established defensive protection and that inexperience could lead to harsh fouls as Igor Thiago looks to work through their lines.
These two teams are no stranger to the referee's book, with 30 fouls per game between them, and 30 yellows across the season between them. That should play well into the hands of whistle-happy John Brooks, who has produced five, six, and eight yellows in three of his four Prem games this season.
🆚 Who will win Brentford vs. Liverpool?
Brentford should threaten through transitions, while Liverpool generate pressure but not always great goal-scoring chances. I'm expecting a hard-fought 1-1 draw, with neither side showing a meaningful edge.
Score prediction: Brentford 1, Liverpool 1
More Brentford vs. Liverpool expert picks
Under 3.5 goals (-175)
Liverpool might be off a six-goal outburst in midweek Champions League play, but Brentford will not have the same "we're just happy to be here" attitude that LASK seemed to have on Wednesday. Premier League competition has caused all sorts of issues for the Reds this season, with just nine big chances created across six domestic games (and only seven goals coming in that span). Plenty of attempts, but not much finishing.
Brentford's midfield will have its hands full as Wirtz unlocks their defensive structure, but the absence of Aleksander Isak and Cody Gakpo limits finishing options. Lewis Koumas has shown flashes, but he's mostly offered movement and little else. Liverpool's 1.24 xGA suggests that, while Thiago carries a transitional threat, chances will be hard to come by.
Several scorelines keep this in the cards, but the steep price has unwilling to commit more than half of a unit - and any steeper than -175, and it becomes a pass for me.
Liverpool Over 13.5 shots (-125)
This is a little lower than Liverpool's season average, and I think this game should come right around the average based on my projections (I have them at about 15 here, but prefer the cushion over 14.5). Liverpool's modest seven-goal return this season doesn't stop them from shooting plenty. Wirtz will repeatedly connect with Barcola out wide, and that threat down the left will force Brentford's defenders deep, and a compact center might make it hard to find quality chances, but not necessarily volume.
A tight, hard-fought game with goals hard to come by will likely not allow Liverpool the relaxation of sitting back with a narrow lead. A home goal that puts Brentford in the lead will just increase the likelihood of this hitting through a Liverpool chase.
Brentford vs. Liverpool key stats
All stats below are for the Premier League season unless otherwise noted.
| Brentford | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4-0 | 2-3-1 |
| Home/Away Record | 2-1-0 home | 2-1-0 away |
| Recent form (all comps) | DDDWWD | WDWWLW |
| Goals for | 12 | 7 |
| xG | 10.96 | 9.28 |
| Goals against | 6 | 7 |
| xGA | 8.59 | 7.41 |
| Average possession | 45.7% | 55.0% |
Brentford vs. Liverpool odds
Brentford vs. Liverpool projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Brentford vs. Liverpool; subject to change:
| Brentford (4-2-3-1) | Liverpool (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Kelleher (GK) | Alisson (GK) |
| Kayode (D) | Araujo (D) |
| Ajer (D) | Jacquet (D) |
| van den Berg (D) | van Dijk (D) |
| Diouf (D) | Kerkez (D) |
| Yarmoliuk (M) | Nyoni (M) |
| Janelt (M) | Mac Allister (M) |
| Anthony (M) | Munoz (M) |
| Lewis-Potter (M) | Wirtz (M) |
| Ouattara (M) | Barcola (M) |
| Thiago (M) | Koumas (F) |
How to watch Brentford vs. Liverpool
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 17
- Kickoff: 10 a.m. ET
- Location: Gtech Community Stadium (Brentford, England)
- TV/Streaming: Peacock
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