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Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees celebrates a two-run homer as we look at our 2024 MLB home run leader odds.
Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees celebrates a two-run home run. Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images/AFP.

Matt Olson will be trying to defend his home run crown, but there are lots of worthy challengers as we look at our latest 2024 home run leader MLB odds.

All rise! New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is the favorite to lead MLB in home runs in 2024 as spring training games begin.

Behind Judge are a few familiar names from the 2023 oddsboard, including reigning king Matt Olson, 2019 leader Pete Alonso, and the man everyone is talking about, Shohei Ohtani.

Here's a look at the best odds to be the 2024 MLB home run leader (odds via our best MLB betting sites).

Home run leader odds 2024

(MLB home run leader odds as of Feb. 22)

Aaron Judge+350 ❄️+420 🔥+400+375+400
Matt Olson+600 ❄️+850 🔥+700+650+700
Pete Alonso+700 ❄️+850+1000 🔥+750+800 
Kyle Schwarber+750+1200 🔥+1100+750+1000
Juan Soto+900 ❄️+1400 +1400+1100+1600 🔥
Shohei Ohtani+900+900+900+1100 🔥+900
Yordan Alvarez+1200+1300+1400+1400+1100 ❄️
Fernando Tatis Jr.+1900 +2300 🔥+2200+2000+1600 ❄️
Ronald Acuna Jr.+1900+1900+1900+2000 🔥+1600 ❄️
Austin Riley+1900 🔥+2300+3000+3000+5000 🔥

Home run leader 2024 favorite

Aaron Judge (+420 via FanDuel)

The issue for Judge is his ability to stay healthy. Judge played only 106 games in 2023, but he still hit nearly 40 homers. Despite the narrative being that Judge is always injured, he played in 157 games in 2022 and 148 in 2021.

Additionally, Judge missed time last year with a bit of a freak injury after crashing into an outfield wall while trying to make a catch.

If he can avoid missing significant time in 2024, Judge will surely justify this relatively short price. He's not far removed from smacking an AL record 62 homers in 2022.

Home run leader odds 2024: Contender

Matt Olson (+850 via FanDuel)

How can we not include the reigning leader as a contender? Olson was the only player in 2023 to hit at least 50 homers, leading second-place Kyle Schwarber by seven.

Olson's 2023 campaign represented exactly what many believed he was capable of after leaving Oakland for hitter-friendly Truist Park in Atlanta. The big lefty should serve as a constant threat to pace the majors in home runs throughout the season.

Home run leader odds 2024: Long shot

Bryce Harper (+5000 via bet365)

The Philadelphia Phillies' newly anointed first baseman struggled to hit for power immediately upon returning from Tommy John surgery last year. Bryce Harper managed just three home runs in 56 games, but he clobbered 18 across 70 contests in the latter half of the campaign before adding five more in the postseason.

Harper has never led the league in home runs, but he consistently serves as a power threat, and his permanent move to first base could further help his cause, as he'll no longer need to put as much energy into the defensive side of his game.

As a bonus, bet365 is offering a rogue price for Harper compared to our other best sportsbooks. The +5000 at bet365 is much longer than the +3000 through DraftKings.

Home run leader odds movement

Most of the top names in this market haven't changed since December at our best sports betting sites. But there's been some odds shuffling.

The most significant shift is tied to Juan Soto, no doubt due to his move to the Yankees and a more hitter-friendly ballpark. Soto has gone from being as long as +3000 to now down to around +1100.

FanDuel is posting the best odds, especially for the favorites. That book is featuring the best standalone price for three of the top four sluggers, while Draftkings is featuring the worst odds on four of the top five batters.

Recent MLB home run leaders

YearPlayerTeamClosing odds
2023Matt OlsonAtlanta Braves+2500
2022Aaron JudgeNew York Yankees+1300
2021Salvador Perez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Kansas City Royals/Toronto Blue JaysPerez: N/A, Guerrero: +5000
2020Luke VoitNew York YankeesN/A
2019Pete AlonsoNew York MetsN/A
2018Khris DavisOakland Athletics+4000
2017Giancarlo StantonMiami Marlins+750
2016Mark TrumboBaltimore Orioles+5000
2015Chris DavisBaltimore Orioles+1800
2014Nelson CruzBaltimore Orioles+3500

Home run leader FAQs

Who's the favorite to lead MLB in home runs during 2024?

Aaron Judge of the Yankees is the current favorite at odds as short as +350.

Who led MLB in home runs during 2023?

Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson led MLB in home runs during 2023 while hitting 54, far ahead of Kyle Schwarber, who finished second with 47.

When will the 2024 MLB home run leader be decided?

Whoever leads MLB in home runs at the conclusion of the regular season will win this market. The 2024 season ends on Sept. 29.

MLB betting odds pages

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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