MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2023: Will Ohtani Contend in 2023?
Cheering for baseballs to be launched repeatedly into outer space is an entertaining way to spend your summer. So why not pad the bankroll while you're at it? Let's look ahead toward the long-ball liftoffs with our 2023 MLB home run leader odds from our best sportsbooks.
You'll notice something immediately when looking back over the home run leaders since 2009: A whole lot of long opening odds, and names that weren't even on the board during spring training in several cases.
The opening odds for the home run leaders over the past 14 years are available through SportsOddsHistory.com (see the table below). Sure, some familiar ball-mashers are on there at the expected shorter odds, like Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Cabrera in his prime. But of the 15 batters listed (including the 2021 tie between Salvador Perez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), five started with +3500 odds or longer. Even better, four began off the board at all MLB betting sites.
Will a long-ball legend like Aaron Judge dominate once more? Or is this market primed to offer highly appealing value again?
Here's a look at the best odds for the 2023 MLB home run leader, and our top picks.
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MLB 2023 Home Run Leader odds
|Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||+1200🔥||+1100||+1000❄️||+1200🔥||+1000|
|Fernando Tatis Jr.||+1400❄️||+1700||+2500||+4000🔥||+1600|
|Ronald Acuna Jr.||+1800||+2700🔥||+2500||+1600❄️||+2200|
|Eloy Jimenez||+3000 ❄️||+4500||+3500||+6000||+3000|
|Rafael Devers||+3500||+4200 🔥||+4000||+4000||+3300❄️|
|Manny Machado||+4500❄️||+6500||+6000||+10000 🔥||+4500|
MLB 2023 home run leader odds as of Wednesday, March 29 at 2:32 p.m. ET.
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MLB 2023 home run leader odds analysis
The home run leader category is often rooted in long shots, and even deep dark horses. With that in mind, run as far as you can from DraftKings. Instead, head to BetMGM to make your flier picks, as that book offers easily the best prices further down the oddsboard.
For example, Paul Goldschmidt (who hit 35 home runs in 2022) is being offered at +5000 through DraftKings and +10000 at BetMGM. Similarly, Salvador Perez is only one season removed from clubbing 48 long balls to tie for the MLB lead, and he's at +5500 through DraftKings and +20000 at BetMGM.
MLB 2023 home run leader odds movement
There's moderate movement atop the board as teams get set to open the season, and the most significant jump comes from Matt Olson. The Atlanta Braves first baseman hit 39 and 34 home runs in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and he moved from +2800 to +1800 through FanDuel Sportsbook.
Elsewhere, Julio Rodriguez went from +4500 to +3000 at PointsBet, a price that's now in line with DraftKings Sportsbook, but well ahead of Caesars and BetMGM. The 2022 AL rookie of the year finished with an .830 OPS last season.
Check out our 2023 MLB Cy Young Odds.
MLB 2023 home run leader odds: Favorite
Pete Alonso (+1200 via Caesars)
If we exclude the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the MLB leader has averaged 54 homers over the past 10 full campaigns. Alonso was one of those leaders not long ago in 2019, and he finished just a tick below that number with 53.
He's produced two 40-plus homer seasons over just four MLB campaigns. Alonso has also posted hard-hit percentages of 47.4 and 44.8 over the past two seasons.
MLB 2023 home run leader odds: Contender
Shohei Ohtani (+2000 via Caesars)
Ohtani deservedly edged Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out for the MVP Award in 2021. And similar to Guerrero, he experienced an offensive dip in 2022. And yet he remained a pitching and baseball throttling lab creation.
For Ohtani, being knocked down a peg still resulted in a season with 34 homers and an impressive .273/.356/.519 slash line, all while ranking sixth in the AL with an .875 OPS. Injuries are always a concern because of his pitching workload. But the 46 homers he hit in 2021 made it clear what he can do when healthy and locked in for a full season.
Check out our 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year Odds.
MLB 2023 home run leader odds: Long shot
Matt Chapman (+20000 via BetMGM)
The fun police will be speeding toward your door if you don't take at least one moonshot in this market, especially given the recent history of home run leaders rising unexpectedly. This is arguably beyond a moonshot, and you'd be taking aim at Saturn.
But Chapman can be yours at a mouth-watering price through BetMGM, one that's many nautical miles longer than what our other top-rated sportsbooks are offering. You'd be getting a power-first hitter who's clubbed 27 homers in two straight years, and a 36-dinger season in 2019 isn't far in the rearview. He also ranked in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity in 2022 and the 97th in hard-hit rate.
Oh, and there's the added incentive of 2023 being a contract season for Chapman.
MLB 2023 home run leader odds: Fade
Kyle Schwarber (+1200 via PointsBet)
Schwarber is due to regress after hitting 46 home runs in 2022, eight above his previous career high.
There are indeed indications his fall might not be too steep. He ranked in the top 10% of the league in average exit velocity in 2021, and in the top 5% in 2020 and 2019, according to Baseball Savant. He's a three-true outcome hitter, and the ball very often sails fast and far when Schwarber connects.
Schwarber will still send plenty of balls into the clouds, and do it while showing impressive plate discipline. But this is simply too high of a price to pay for a hitter who just soared past his previous career peak.
Recent MLB home run leaders
|2022||Aaron Judge||New York Yankees||+1300|
|2021||Salvador Perez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||Kansas City Royals/Toronto Blue Jays||Perez: N/AGuerrero: +5000|
|2020||Luke Voit||New York Yankees||N/A|
|2019||Pete Alonso||New York Mets||N/A|
|2018||Khris Davis||Oakland Athletics||+4000|
|2017||Giancarlo Stanton||Miami Marlins||+750|
|2016||Mark Trumbo||Baltimore Orioles||+5000|
|2015||Chris Davis||Baltimore Orioles||+1800|
|2014||Nelson Cruz||Baltimore Orioles||+3500|
|2013||Chris Davis||Baltimore Orioles||+4000|
|2012||Miguel Cabrera||Detroit Tigers||+1000|
|2011||Jose Bautista||Toronto Blue Jays||+1800|
|2010||Jose Bautista||Toronto Blue Jays||N/A|
|2009||Albert Pujols||St. Louis Cardinals||+1500|
Opening odds from SportsOddsHistory.com
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