Rangers vs. Angels Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, Aug. 11
Texas is still clinging to the final AL wild-card spot, and my Rangers vs. Angels prediction shows why a fine opportunity to further advance that position lies ahead.
The Angels field one of the league's worst offenses, a unit that's sunk even lower following a trade deadline selloff. That's led to a whole lot of losing recently, as have pitching mismatches like the Cody Bradford vs. Ryan Johnson one we see tonight.
The Rangers enter as the -145 favorite, with the first pitch set to fly from Angel Stadium at 9:38 p.m. ET (ESPN).
⚾ Rangers vs. Angels picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers ML (-145 via DraftKings) | 1.5u → 1.03u | The Angels have been getting repeatedly thumped. |
| Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 total bases (-106 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.94u | He's on fire while slugging .739 over the past week. |
| Joc Pederson home run (+285 via FanDuel) | 0.20u → 0.57u | Has made a career out of mashing against weak righties. |
Total wagered: 1.70 units | Max profit: 2.54 units
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🏆 Who will win Rangers vs. Angels?
Texas should prevail easily against an Angels team that's been a woeful 7-15 since the All-Star break. Los Angeles will remain a frequent target for pummelings after selling off some core pieces just prior to the trade deadline, most notably Jose Soriano, Logan O'Hoppe, and Jo Adell.
Score prediction: Rangers 7, Angels 3
💰 Rangers vs. Angels prediction & best bet
Rangers ML (-137)
The Angels have dropped three straight games by a combined score of 23-4. That's contributed to their dreadful minus-94 run differential, the league's fourth-worst mark.
There simply isn't a whole lot going on for a 27th-ranked Angels offense beyond Mike Trout, which has sadly been true for too much of his career. Zach Neto boasts some power, but a whopping 31.9% strikeout rate comes with it. And although the underlying metrics still shine, Trout himself has been dragging since the All-Star break, especially as mid-August approaches and he's slashing .194/.342/.387 during the month.
📡 SBR Edge: Packing power
The Rangers' batting order is filled with power threats, as four of their sluggers boast a hard-hit rate sitting at 46.5% or above, with Brandon Nimmo leading the way at 51.8%.
🔥 Best Rangers vs. Angels player prop bet
Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 total bases (-103)
Angels starter Ryan Johnson is getting repeatedly throttled in every way imaginable. His HR/9 sits at a ghastly 2.3, which is the product of allowing at least one dinger in seven straight starts, totaling 13 over only 50 2/3 innings.
His command is often wayward too, leading to an also gross 4.4 BB/9. And a sinker he throws 26.8% of the time is getting absolutely flamed for a .750 slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant.
Which all means it's a fine time to tab Brandon Nimmo, who's scorching in August while putting up a 1.214 OPS. He also boasts a .615 slugging percentage against split-fingers, a pitch Johnson throws 37% of the time to lefties like Nimmo.
🤑 More MLB props for Tuesday
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today and my best home run predictions today.
💣 Rangers vs. Angels home run prediction
Joc Pederson to hit a home run (+285)
All of Johnson's shortcomings apply here too, and perhaps even more so since he's the exact kind of righty the veteran specialist Pederson thrives against.
Pederson has slid even further into a platoon role as he ages. He seldom hits against a lefty, and is putting up an .850 OPS when facing a righty. The 34-year-old also enjoys being away from Globe Life Field, as he's registered an .891 OPS on the road and a .788 at home.
And most promisingly and much like Nimmo, Pederson thumps Johnson's top offerings to lefties while posting a .720 slugging percentage against cutters and a .627 against sinkers.
🚀 Rangers vs. Angels same-game parlay
There's a clear correlation throughout here between Johnson struggling while continuing to give up hard contact repeatedly, and the Rangers capitalizing early.
💵 Rangers vs. Angels SGP picks
- Rangers ML (-145)
- Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 total bases (-106)
- Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-118)
Best odds: +258 via DraftKings (0.50u -> 1.29u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 67-186-2 | -0.99 units ❌ | 1.0% ❌ |
| Game picks | 10-10-2 | +0.81 units ✅ | +17.01% ✅ |
| Player props | 42-156-2 | -6.13 units ❌ | -10.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-18-0 | +1.53 units ✅ | +47.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Rangers vs. Angels: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
The strategy here isn't an overly complicated one. The Angels spiraled then sold, and Johnson has very much been a part of those immense struggles with his 7.11 ERA across 10 starts and 13 appearances. Fade him as much as possible, especially given the hard contact he gives up.
📊 Live Rangers vs. Angels odds
We're already seen the moneyline shift toward the Rangers at the best MLB betting sites, moving from -137 at DraftKings to -145 now.
There's little doubt that movement will continue. The action is slanted heavily toward the Rangers, who are receiving 82% of the moneyline bets and 59% of the attention to cover -1.5 on the run line.
📈 Rangers vs. Angels betting trends
| Rangers | Statistic | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| 60-59 | W-L record | 45-74 |
| 56-63 | Run line record | 57-62 |
| 63-52 | O/U record | 51-67 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 3-7 |
| 4.25 | Team ERA | 4.51 |
| .244 | Team batting avg. | .235 |
| .716 | OPS | .688 |
🚑 Rangers vs. Angels injuries
📺 How to watch Rangers vs. Angels
- Date: Tuesday, Aug. 11
- First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Angel Stadium (Anaheim)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Rangers starter: Cody Bradford (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
- Angels starter: Ryan Johnson (2-6, 7.11 ERA)
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