⚾ MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Tuesday, Aug. 11
Mashing lefties play a prominent role in my home run predictions today, and they both get pristine matchups.
That includes Chicago White Sox rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami, who leads us off and is well-positioned to pounce on a curveball. Then there's Matt Olson, who's been scorching hot during the second half of the season.
My MLB home run picks also include Mike Trout, who continues to thrive against southpaws.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 11
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (+345 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.69u | Nick Lodolo leans on curveballs, a pitch Murakami has been destroying. |
| Mike Trout home run (+340 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.68u | Has produced a .923 OPS against lefties. |
| Matt Olson home run (+357 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.71u | Demolishes cutters, a pitch he should see plenty of tonight. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.08 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+345)
The lefty vs. lefty matchup doesn't need to be overly concerning here, especially when the southpaw in question is the Cincinnati Reds' Nick Lodolo. His ticket for regression island has been printed up, as the hurler's expected ERA of 6.15 is significantly higher than Lodolo's actual mark of 4.60.
His sinker is getting regularly pulverized too while tagged with a .690 expected slugging. It's a pitch he throws 38% of the time to lefties like Murakami, who boasts a 61.9% hard-hit rate against that offering.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Crushing curveballs
Lodolo also leans heavily on his curveball against lefties while throwing it 40% of the time. Murakami is producing an absurd 93.8% hard-hit rate against that pitch, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Mike Trout (+340)
Mike Trout has been scuffling to begin the second half of the season, and especially during August. But there are still plenty of glowing underlying metrics that indicate an ability to snap back into form fast. Most notably, that includes a barrel rate of 17.2% that sits in the 97th percentile leaguewide.
Trout's nearly unmatched discipline hasn't changed either, and that shows up in his 16.3% walk rate. So the eye and power haven't gone anywhere, and neither has an ability to crush lefties. Trout is posting a .923 OPS against southpaws, and he'll face one tonight in the Rangers' Cody Bradford, who's making just his second post-injury start this season.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
🤑 More MLB props for Tuesday
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Home run pick: Matt Olson (+357)
It didn't seem possible for Matt Olson to sizzle even more, but here we are with the slugger posting a sky-high 1.163 OPS in August while clubbing five homers. His expected slugging of .516 sits eighth leaguewide, too.
He'll take all that today against Mets youngster Zac Thornton, who relies on his cutter heavily against lefties, throwing it 31% of the time. Olson will gladly invite that approach, as he's been belting cutters to the tune of a .800 slugging percentage and 51.4% hard-hit rate.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Munetaka Murakami home run (+345)
- Mike Trout home run (+305)
- Matt Olson home run (+357)
Best odds: +8245 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.5u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 67-186-2 | -0.99 units β | -1.0% β |
| Home run picks | 36-125-0 | -1.29 units β | -0.04% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-47 | +0.50 units β | +0.52% β |
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