Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction & Picks: Tonight's MLB Odds & Best Bets (Aug. 10)
The Cardinals look to close the gap on the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot as a three-game series kicks off at Busch Stadium tonight. My Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction sides with the home underdog in the opener, while also taking Kyle Schwarber to kick off a home run tear in my top player prop.
The starting pitching matchup features Andrew Painter and Hunter Dobbins, with first pitch slated for 7:45 p.m. ET (FS1). The Phillies are a -115 betting favorite.
⚾ Phillies vs. Cardinals picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cardinals ML (-102 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.98u | The Phillies are three games under .500 against NL Central teams this year |
| Andrew Painter Under 3.5 strikeouts (-140 via bet365) | 1u → 0.71u | St. Louis strikes out at the second-lowest rate against southpaws |
| Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+265 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.66u | Schwarber should start a home run barrage after belting two yesterday |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.35 units
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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Cardinals?
Philadelphia being three games under .500 against NL Central teams and having an even run differential despite being seven games over .500 for the season are reasons I’m skeptical about its chances to win this series opener.
Score prediction: Cardinals 5, Phillies 4
💰 Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction & best bet
Cardinals ML (-102)
Anytime the Phillies have trotted out a starting pitcher not named Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, or Jesus Luzardo, it has been in trouble. Andrew Painter doesn’t inspire confidence after not recording a win since March 31st. In addition, Philadelphia is just 3-11 in his starts, while not winning when he has toed the rubber since May 18.
St. Louis is coming off its first home series win since the All-Star Break. While it came against the lowly Rockies, the fact that it averaged more than five runs per game should be a catalyst for this series opener.
🔬 SBR Edge: No help outside the “Big Three”
Philadelphia had a stretch from June 24 to Aug. 4 without winning a game not started by Sanchez, Wheeler, or Luzardo.
🔥 Best Phillies vs. Cardinals player prop bet
Andrew Painter Under 3.5 strikeouts (-140)
Andrew Painter recorded four strikeouts over four innings before being removed from his last start with a hamstring injury. The concern over that injury lingering, plus how good St. Louis is at making contact against southpaws is why this Under is my favorite player prop from this game.
The Cardinals have an 18.1% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this year, which is only worse than the Diamondbacks among all MLB teams. Even as things have started to worsen for St. Louis since the start of July, its strikeout rate in that split has only risen to 20.9%, which is still the eighth-best in the league.
Painter has only recorded 18-plus outs on three occasions this year. If his pitch count is capped at 82 pitches like it has been in eight of his last nine starts, that lowers his ceiling for strikeouts considerably.
💣 Phillies vs. Cardinals home run prediction
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+265)
Kyle Schwarber ended a 17-game home run drought yesterday and is still tied for the MLB lead in that category.
With his multi-home run game yesterday, he now has 29 such games since joining the Phillies in 2022. To put that into perspective, Ralph Kiner of the Pirates from 1946 to 1950 is the only player in MLB history with more multi-home run games in their first five seasons with a team (30).
Schwarber has homered on consecutive days eight times this year and followed up two of his four multi-home run games with a long ball the next day. He should go deep off Hunter Dobbins, who has allowed three homers in his last two starts.
🎟️ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Astros | 1+ home runs | +325 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | A's | Over 1.5 hits, runs & RBIs | -115 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | 1+ home runs | +240 |
| Pete Alonso | Orioles | 1+ home runs | +333 |
| Freddy Peralta | Rays | Over 15.5 outs | -110 |
🚀 Phillies vs. Cardinals same-game parlay
The first two legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely in increasing the chances of St. Louis winning outright. Including Schwarber to homer in this SGP contradicts the Cardinals moneyline play, so I am backing him just to record a hit, which he has done in four straight games following a six-game hitless streak.
💵 Phillies vs. Cardinals SGP picks
- Cardinals ML
- Andrew Painter Under 3.5 strikeouts
- Kyle Schwarber to record 1+ hits
Best odds: +376 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.38u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 222-348-1 | +51.47 units ✅ | +14.3% ✅ |
| Game picks | 87-65-1 | +15.13 units ✅ | +8.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 135-283 | +36.34 units ✅ | +17.6% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Phillies vs. Cardinals: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Anytime the Phillies start a pitcher outside of their “big three” of Sanchez, Wheeler, and Luzardo, I will look to fade them, especially if they are favorites.
St. Louis has done a great job of clawing back to .500 after falling a season-worst three games below last weekend, and its 19-16 record against left-handed starting pitchers makes it an attractive home underdog against the inconsistent Phillies.
📊 Live Phillies vs. Cardinals odds
🎟️ Phillies vs. Cardinals betting splits
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Team / bet type | Odds | Bet % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | |||
| ⚪ Moneyline | -120 | 48% | 38% |
| ⚪ Run line | -1.5 (+135) | 67% | 57% |
| ⚪ Total | o9 | 52% | 74% |
| Cardinals | |||
| 🔴 Moneyline | +100 | 52% | 62% |
| 🔴 Run line | +1.5 (-165) | 33% | 43% |
| 🔴 Total | u9 | 48% | 26% |
📈 Phillies vs. Cardinals betting trends
| Phillies | Statistic | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 63-56 | W-L record | 59-59 |
| 46-73 | Run line record | 65-53 |
| 53-62-4 | O/U record | 47-66-5 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 4.19 | Team ERA | 4.14 |
| .238 | Team batting avg. | .241 |
| .709 | OPS | .696 |
🔢 Phillies vs. Cardinals confirmed lineups
Updated as of 5:30 p.m. ET.
| Phillies | Cardinals | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Kyle Schwarber | 2B | JJ Wetherholt |
| 3B | Bryson Stott | DH | Ivan Herrera |
| DH | Bryce Harper | 1B | Alec Burleson |
| 2B | Luis Arraez | RF | Jordan Walker |
| LF | Brandon Marsh | CF | Nathan Church |
| RF | Derek Hill | SS | Masyn Winn |
| CF | Justin Crawford | LF | Jose Fermin |
| SS | Edmundo Sosa | C | Jimmy Crooks |
| C | Garrett Stubbs | 3B | Cesar Prieto |
🚑 Phillies vs. Cardinals injuries
📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Cardinals
- Date: Monday, Aug. 10
- First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Busch Stadium (St. Louis)
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Phillies starter: Andrew Painter (1-8, 6.48 ERA)
- Cardinals starter: Hunter Dobbins (2-2, 3.60 ERA)
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