Mariners vs. Yankees Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Aug. 11)
RHP Bryan Woo and LHP Ryan Weathers square off today in the first game of a three-game set as we break down the Mariners vs. Yankees win probability.
The Yankees have a 54% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be higher given how well New York has played through a tough post-All-Star-break schedule. First pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., is set for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB.TV, TBS).
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🏆 Who will win Mariners vs. Yankees? Live MLB win probability
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The Yankees have a 54% win probability, and more than $300,000 has already been traded in this market. New York originally opened with a 57% win probability on Saturday night, but money has come in on the Mariners as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Yankees are available at 55¢, with more than $38,000 in liquidity at that price.
The Mariners extended their losing skid to four games with a 4-1 setback against the Rays in Seattle on Sunday. Second baseman Cole Young got the Mariners on the board first with an RBI single in the first inning, but RHP Emerson Hancock allowed two earned runs on nine hits and one walk with three strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings.
The Yankees are still without outfielder Aaron Judge (rib), but they're coming off a 2-1 series win over the Braves in the Bronx. They lost the finale 2-1 in 10 innings on Sunday, despite having a 66% win probability, per ESPN Analytics, while tied 1-1 in the middle of the ninth. Outfielder Trent Grisham hit a solo shot in the eighth for New York's lone run.
My prediction: Yankees win (55¢). Since the All-Star break, the Yankees have faced several dangerous offenses, including the Dodgers, Phillies, White Sox, Cubs, Cardinals, and Braves, and they've still gone 12-10 in that span without Judge. I'm not looking to fade New York right now, especially against Woo, who has a career-high 4.31 ERA this season.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Mariners vs. Yankees?
| Player | Chance | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | 21% | 21¢ |
| Julio Rodriguez | 17% | 17¢ |
| Randy Arozarena | 15% | 15¢ |
Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh had 60 home runs to lead MLB last season, so it's not a huge surprise that he has the highest chance (21%) to homer today. However, Raleigh has hit just five home runs in his last 55 games.
Outfielder Julio Rodriguez has the second-highest chance at 17%, followed by outfielder Randy Arozarena at 15%. While there are no Yankees available at the time of publishing, more markets usually open closer to first pitch.
My prediction: Spencer Jones to hit a home run (<21¢). I'm not interested in any Mariners to homer against Weathers today. Yankees outfielder Spencer Jones ranks fifth in MLB with a 77.7 mph average bat speed (min. 200 swings) and has homered in three of his last 11 games. I wouldn't pay more than 20¢ for a Yes contract on him once his market opens, though. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Sean Tomlinson.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Mariners vs. Yankees?
More than $26,000 in volume has been traded in this market, with traders projecting a 47% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 48¢, you can instantly get more than $46,000 filled.
The Mariners have had a first-inning run scored in 51% of their games, while the Yankees have seen a first-inning run in 52% of theirs. Woo has allowed a first-inning run in two of his last three starts, while Weathers hasn't allowed one in either of his last two.
My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (48¢). Woo has struggled early in his recent starts, and he's having arguably the worst season of his career, so I can't trust him at current market prices to keep this game scoreless in the first inning. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
📊 Mariners vs. Yankees win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | 46% | 43% | ↑ 3% |
| Yankees | 54% | 57% | ↓ 3% |
📺 How to watch Mariners vs. Yankees
- Date: Tuesday, Aug. 11
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Mariners starter: Bryan Woo (8-8, 4.31 ERA)
- Yankees starter: Ryan Weathers (5-7, 3.79 ERA)
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