Inter Miami vs. Leon Prediction: Wednesday's Leagues Cup Best Bets & Picks (Aug. 12)
Inter Miami, led by Messi, are the darlings of MLS. But for a second straight game, their superstar will be back in Argentina dealing with a personal matter, and that makes all the difference to my Inter Miami vs. Leon prediction for Wednesday's Leagues Cup action. Inter dropped their second game of the tournament, making this one a game that they absolutely must win to have a chance to advance (even with a win they'll need some help).
Sportsbooks back the hosts to get the job done, as Inter Miami is a -110 moneyline betting favorite on the 3-way line. Leon has likely done enough to make it to the knockout stage with as little as a draw (+333) and their ticket is punched with an outright win (+190). Action from Nu Stadium in Miami is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, airing on Apple TV.
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⚽ Inter Miami vs. Leon predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Leon +0.5 asian handicap | -125 via bet365 | 0.25u -> 0.2u |
| De Paul to record 2+ shots | +137 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.69u |
| Miami Over 5.5 corners | -138 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.36u |
⚽ Who will win Inter Miami vs. Leon?
Honestly? Maybe neither side. Despite the best soccer betting sites listing Miami as the favorites, the absence of Messi (away for personal reasons due to the passing of his father) and Luis Suarez (serving a suspension for a spitting incident in last year's Leagues Cup) is enormous. Those two players also have accounted for 50% of all of Inter's MLS goals this season.
It's not that Inter can't still give this a go; there remains plenty of star power. Leon doesn't need to chase this game; their shot suppression so far in the Leagues Cup (five total shots allowed across two games) has been excellent, and their Liga MX defensive numbers in a small sample size have been good enough.
This isn't a bet against Miami being good, this is a bet that the depleted offense will fail against a team that will be looking to continue a strong defensive run.
Score prediction: Miami 1, Leon 1
💵 My best bet: De Paul to record 2+ shots (+137)
Someone has to shoot for Miami in the absence of Messi and Suarez, and the price on De Paul getting to two is appealing.
The Argentine won't be just playing his normal midfield connector role behind the stars, he's going to have to pick up the slack as one of the remaining primary outlets. We've already seen this setup in Matchday 2, when De Paul recorded a shot against Monterrey (scoring Miami's only goal in the loss). The price for him to get a second implies a 42.2%, I put this actually happening in the 50-52% range.
I don't love a lot in this game, but this one market I'll get behind.
🦶 Who will score in Inter Miami vs. Leon?
Daniel Arcila, F, Leon (+210)
Can Arcila make it four in a row for the Liga MX side? In a game I'm projecting to be incredibly low-scoring, I don't see why not back him to do just that.
Arcila scored in the final domestic game before the Leagues Cup break, and has found the back of the net in each of Leons two games. Miami doesn't profile particularly strong defensively, and they can't sit back and accept a draw. While Arcila probably won't produce five shots like he did last time out, he should be good for two or three, and that leaves him with as good of a chance as anyone in this wonky-looking game.
Inter Miami vs. Leon goal-scorer pick: Daniel Arcila (+210)
🥅 Will both teams score in Inter Miami vs. Leon?
The odds strongly favor both teams scoring on Wednesday (-225), but I don't actually have a lot of confidence that it plays out that way. I also don't have a lot of confidence they don't.
Leon is far from an offensive powerhouse, and Inter Miami is missing half of their offensive production. Miami can't afford to accept anything other than a victory, and there are still plenty of stars on the team (Casemiro, De Paul), Leon has been strong defensively throughout limited action this year.
Push come to shove, yeah, I'd guess both teams find the back of the net once given the state of the game. But I'm not actually playing it.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (-225 via bet365)
📊 Inter Miami vs. Leon odds
📺 How to watch Inter Miami vs. Leon
- Date: Wednesday, Aug. 12
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Nu Stadium (Miami)
- TV: Apple TV
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