MLB Projected Win Totals & Over/Under Wins Odds 2023: Acuna, Braves Take Care of Business Again

Spring training is wrapping up and Opening Day is right around the corner. It’s the perfect time to dive into the MLB wins total markets and pluck out some value. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker assesses the MLB win total odds and projected records, and recommends his top MLB picks based on the odds from our best MLB betting sites.

2023 MLB win total odds

There aren’t many surprises at the top of the projected MLB wins total oddsboards. The familiar powerhouses are all there. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, and New York Yankees are all expected to flirt with triple-digit wins.

The next tier in the National League consists of the San Diego Padres, New York Mets, and St. Louis Cardinals. It’s a touch more interesting in the American League. The Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, and Seattle Mariners comprise a competitive second wave of contenders.

Way down the list are the basement-dwelling Oakland Athletics, Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, and Detroit Tigers. All four clubs are pegged to win fewer than 70 games by bookmakers.

National League win total odds

NL win total projections

Braves (94.5)

Projected Braves wins total: 98

Atlanta put 101 tallies in the wins column last season, and the Braves are rightfully trading among the betting favorites by the World Series odds. The lineup, starting rotation, and bullpen are all stocked with talent and depth. In fact, there’s a strong case Atlanta enters 2023 with a better and more complete team than the 2022 version. 

The offense will receive a boost with outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and second baseman Ozzie Albies starting the season fully healthy. Expecting an uptick in production from first baseman Matt Olson during his second tour through the NL isn’t out of the question, either.

Pick: Braves Over 94.5 wins (-110 via Caesars)

Brewers (85.5)

Projected Brewers wins total: 82

For all the question marks surrounding the new-look Milwaukee lineup, the pitching rotation projects to be among the best in the NL again this season. Starters Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta can go head-to-head with any front-end staff in baseball, and it positions the Brew Crew to endure some growing pains if their promising youngsters don’t hit the ground running.

The bullpen also has a new look heading into 2023. Without doubt, closer Devin Williams has the hit-and-miss repertoire to pile up saves, but he and the rest of the hurlers in the arm barn don’t have a long track record of success.

Lean: Brewers Under 85.5 wins (-115 via DraftKings)

Padres (93.5)

Projected Padres wins total: 95

The Friars are filled to the brim with star power. San Diego won 89 games last season, and the lineup and starting rotation are better – at least on paper – heading into the 2023 campaign. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts headlines the offseason acquisitions, and he bolsters a lineup that already featured MVP candidates in third baseman Manny Machado, outfielder Juan Soto, and infielder Fernando Tatis Jr.

There’s depth and experience in the rotation, too. Righties Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Michael Wacha all have proven track records, and southpaw Blake Snell is ripe for a return to stardom after a bounce-back 2022 showing.

Pick: Padres Over 93.5 wins (+100 via PointsBet)

American League win total odds

AL win total projections

Orioles (77.5)

Projected Orioles wins total: 77

Baltimore surprised in 2022. Rookie catcher Adley Rutschman arrived on the scene May 21, and the O’s went 67-54 following his promotion. It was an uneventful offseason, though, and the AL East remains one of the toughest tests in baseball. 

Third baseman Gunnar Henderson projects to make an immediate impact, and he’ll join Rutschman, first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, and outfielder Anthony Santander to form a formidable heart of the order.

The starting rotation is the biggest question mark. If top-prospect Garyson Rodriguez makes a seamless transition, and first-year Oriole Cole Irvin brings stability to the staff, there’s potential for Baltimore to improve for a second consecutive season.

Lean: Orioles Under 77.5 wins (+100 via PointsBet)

White Sox (82.5)

Projected White Sox wins total: 85

There’s a strong case that the Pale Hose were the most disappointing team in 2022, and Chicago also lost a franchise cornerstone in first baseman Jose Abreu during the offseason. Still, the AL Central is far from a who’s who of World Series contenders, and there aren’t many weaknesses on the Chicago roster. 

Ace Dylan Cease is a Cy Young candidate, and the rest of the rotation is eyeing statistical correction after collectively under performing last season. Additionally, if first-year White Sox righty Mike Clevinger can find his pre-Tommy John form, this staff could do the heavy lifting on the South Side.

Pick: White Sox Over 82.5 wins (-105 via DraftKings)

Yankees (94.5)

The Bronx Bombers are World Series contenders again, and welcoming back reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge headlined an offseason that also included bringing in high-upside southpaw Carlos Rodon to bolster an already nasty starting rotation.

However, New York faltered to a 35-35 second-half record last season, and second-year Yankee Frankie Montas is set to miss significant time following arthroscopic shoulder surgery. It will also almost certainly prove difficult for Judge to repeat his historic 2022 tour de force.

Lean: Yankees Under 94.5 wins (-105 via BetMGM)

How to bet MLB season Over/Under win totals

There’s nothing complicated about MLB team win totals markets. You’re betting on whether or not a team will win more (Over) or fewer (Under) games than a projected total. 

Bookmakers set the total based on each team’s individual roster, offseason transactions, past results, and the strength of their particular division also factors in. It’s also important to note there’s a vig attached to each team total, which can change based on the betting action and other factors.

When looking at the American League win total odds chart, you’ll notice the win total for the Los Angeles Angels is 82.5 through FanDuel. The Over is trading at -115, while the Under is -105. Prospective Over bettors would need to wager $115 to win $100, and Under bettors would need to bet $105 to win $100.

MLB team win totals are futures bets. They can be placed up to each team's first game of the season and are graded at the conclusion of the regular season.

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• FanDuel: $2,500 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)