The final series of the regular season begin on a loaded 15-game Monday slate. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our MLB best bets for Monday.
Thanks to the early season lockout, the MLB playoff schedule was pushed back so all previously postponed games could be made up. All six American League playoff spots have been sewn up entering the day, while the NL East race and the two National League wild-card spots have yet to be determined.
Monday’s MLB Schedule and Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Kansas City Royals (+155) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-180)
- St. Louis Cardinals (OFF) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Atlanta Braves (-150) vs. Miami Marlins (+130)
- Chicago Cubs (+110) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-130)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-135) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+115)
- New York Yankees (-150) vs. Texas Rangers (+130)
- Washington Nationals (+260) vs. New York Mets (-315)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-140) vs. Boston Red Sox (+120)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+205) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-245)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+105) vs. Houston Astros (-125)
- Minnesota Twins (+105) vs. Chicago White Sox (-125)
- Los Angeles Angels (-175) vs. Oakland Athletics (+150)
- Detroit Tigers (+205) vs. Seattle Mariners (-245)
- San Francisco Giants (+215) vs. San Diego Padres (-255)
- Colorado Rockies (+290) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-350)
Monday’s MLB Best Bets
- Moneyline: Angels (-175 via DraftKings) vs. Athletics ★★★★★
- Spread: Braves -1.5 (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Marlins ★★★
- Total: Tigers-Mariners Under 7 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★
- Upset: Rockies (+290 via FanDuel) vs. Dodgers ★
- Pitcher prop: Jose Berrios Under 16.5 outs recorded (-105 via DraftKings) ★★★
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Monday’s MLB Top Picks
Moneyline: Angels (-175)
One of these teams is playing its best baseball down the stretch, while the other seemingly cannot wait for the season to end. The Angels have outscored opponents by 22 runs during a seven-game winning streak, which is tied with the Cubs' same run for the longest active winning streak in the majors.
Meanwhile, Oakland is 1-6 in its last seven games and scored 12 runs total in the six losses. That streak includes being swept by the Angels in three games on the road last week, during which Oakland totaled just six runs.
The A's are batting just .161 and slugging .242 over the last seven days, with a .209 BABIP and microscopic .081 ISO. Thus, we expect Los Angeles's Patrick Sandoval (6-9, 3.03 ERA) to improve his 2.11 ERA over his previous seven starts. In addition, his ERA, WHIP, OBA, and HR/9 ratio are all better on the road, and all trends point to him limiting this porous Oakland offense again.
Spread: Braves -1.5 (+120)
Miami has been a bettor's delight when Jesus Luzardo (3-7, 3.53 ERA) has toed the rubber, as the team is 3-14 in his 17 starts this season. That includes nine straight losses and 12 of 13. Yet, miraculously, bettors have not profited off the opposition's run lines in those games, and six of Miami's last eight losses when Luzardo toed the rubber have been by one run.
But in a game they do not project to win, we have to opt for the better value with Atlanta's -1.5 run line and expect some regression to the mean instead of Miami continuing to lose by just a single run.
Atlanta's Bryce Elder (2-3, 2.76 ERA) faced the Marlins in consecutive starts in mid-August and early September and limited them to one run on five hits to go with 16 strikeouts in 13 combined innings. Miami is 30 games under .500 against teams with a winning record (third-worst in the NL), and we like the Braves to win big Monday as they draw closer to a division title.
Total: Tigers-Mariners Under 7 (-110)
Mariners rookie George Kirby (8-4, 3.21 ERA) has lost only once in his previous 14 starts and has pitched to a 2.55 ERA in his last seven. In his only career start against Detroit, he held the Tigers scoreless over five innings and allowed just two hits while striking out five. Kirby is backed up by a bullpen that has pitched to a 3.31 ERA in the last 30 days and has allowed hard contact on just 26.9% of batted balls, well below the league average.
In that same span, the Mariners have batted just .217 as a team and face Bryan Garcia (1-0, 3.29 ERA), who has looked comfortable in his first three outings despite facing all playoff teams. He is coming off his first quality start, and we expect him to match zeroes with Kirby.
Upset: Rockies (+290)
According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Dodgers became the first NL team to win at least 110 games since the 1909 Pirates. In addition, 94 of those wins are by two or more runs, passing the 1998 Yankees for most such wins of all time. They have not only beaten teams this year, they have destroyed them, but these odds are way too high with a starting pitcher on the mound who has not pitched since Aug. 23.
Colorado's Jose Urena (3-8, 5.24 ERA) compiled a 3.95 ERA in September, his best of any month since April. Urena has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four consecutive starts, and we expect him to keep this game closer than the egregious Moneyline odds suggest.
Pitcher prop: Berrios Under 16.5 outs (-105)
Jose Berrios (11-7, 5.37 ERA) has pitched to a 6.75 ERA and .313 OBA in 15 road starts, so Baltimore will likely find offensive success Monday. Also, Toronto has been cautious with its starting pitchers down the stretch to ensure they are rested for the playoffs - Kevin Gausman was just removed from Sunday's start after three innings and 53 pitches.
Berrios has averaged just over five innings per start (37 1/3 IP in his last seven), and we project another five innings to be his max on Monday.
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MLB odds and best bets from 10/3/2022 at 6:05 a.m. ET