Dodgers vs. Braves Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Aug. 25)
RHP Tyler Glasnow and RHP Bryce Elder square off today in the first game of a three-game set as we break down the Dodgers vs. Braves win probability.
The Dodgers have a 59% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be higher given how well Los Angeles has played recently. First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (TBS, MLB.TV).
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🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Braves? Live MLB win probability
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The Dodgers have a 59% win probability, and more than $600,000 has already been traded in this market. Los Angeles' win probability was as low as 53% Sunday evening, but money has come in on the Dodgers as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Dodgers are available at 60¢, with more than $440,000 in liquidity at that price.
Los Angeles extended its winning streak to six games on Sunday with a 4-0 victory over the Pirates at Dodger Stadium. L.A. swept the Pirates in three games - after a three-game road sweep of the Rockies - and has scored four or more runs in all six victories. Alek Thomas and Hunter Feduccia each singled in a run during the fourth inning Sunday.
The Braves have struggled lately, losing seven of their last 10 games. They're coming off a 4-2 victory over the Brewers in the Little League Classic, though, avoiding a three-game sweep. Michael Harris II hit a solo shot in the ninth inning, while Mauricio Dubon opened the scoring with an RBI ground-rule double in the second.
My prediction: Dodgers win (60¢). It's hard to fade the Dodgers while they're riding a six-game win streak. Elder has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last 10 games and may struggle to get outs against power hitters like Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy, who both rank in the 89th percentile or higher in barrel rate.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Dodgers vs. Braves?
| Player | Chance | Player | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 27% | Kyle Tucker | 12% |
| Max Muncy | 22% | Mike Yastrzemski | 11% |
| Matt Olson | 19% | Ozzy Albies | 10% |
| Michael Harris II | 17% | Tommy Edman | 10% |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 16% | Sean Murphy | 9% |
| Drake Baldwin | 16% | Alek Thomas | 9% |
| Freddie Freeman | 15% | Mauricio Dubon | 7% |
| Mookie Betts | 14% | Hunter Feduccia | 7% |
| Austin Riley | 14% | Alex Call | 5% |
It's no surprise that Ohtani has the highest probability to homer at 27% - he's usually priced between 25% and 31%, depending on the starting pitcher and the ballpark.
Muncy has the second-highest probability to homer at 22%, followed by Braves slugger Matt Olson at 19% and Harris at 17%. More than $87,000 has been traded in this market.
My prediction: Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (27¢). Not only has Ohtani homered three times across his last six games, but he has a favorable matchup against Elder. The Braves right-hander throws 63.3% fastballs to left-handed hitters, and Ohtani has a .670 expected slugging percentage against fastballs. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Dodgers vs. Braves?
More than $47,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 51% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 51¢, you can instantly get more than $16,000 filled.
The Dodgers have had a first-inning run scored in 50% of their games, while the Braves have seen a first-inning run in 49% of theirs. Glasnow hasn't allowed a first-inning run in five of his last six starts, while Elder hasn't allowed one in eight of his last nine.
My prediction: No run in the first inning (50¢). While Ohtani and Muncy have a good shot at driving in runs against Elder, he has been solid early in starts - it's his second and third time through the order when he gives up home runs. Glasnow has also been strong enough this season for there to be value at this price. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of my NRFIs today.
📊 Dodgers vs. Braves win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 59% | 59% | ↑ 0% |
| Braves | 41% | 41% | ↓ 0% |
📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Braves
- Date: Tuesday, Aug. 25
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Dodgers starter: Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 2.72 ERA)
- Braves starter: Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.92 ERA)
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