Pirates vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, Aug. 25
OurPittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres predictions highlights our Tuesday night slate in a matchup featuring Paul Skenes against Michael King. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego, with the game available on SportsNet Pittsburgh and Padres.TV.
The Padres enter as the betting favorite, with San Diego at -118 on the moneyline and Pittsburgh at +110. Skenes brings a 3.95 ERA into the matchup, while King owns a 3.38 ERA, setting up an intriguing pitching battle as both teams look to gain an edge.
⚾ Pirates vs. Padres picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates moneyline (+110 via FanDuel) | 1u → 1.1u | The pirates pitching staff has done enough to keep winning, we should see Skenes carry us into the later innings. |
| Paul Skenes Over 5.5 strikeouts (-150 via FanDuel) | 1.5u → 1u | Skenes has looked better recently, and I expect that trend to continue tonight in San Diego. |
| Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+450 via DraftKings) | .5u → 2.25u | Lowe has had a hot bat recently, and should be able to have good at bats against Michael King. |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 4.35 units
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🏆 Who will win Pirates vs. Padres?
The Pirates have a strong path to an upset Tuesday night, starting with Paul Skenes taking the mound against the Padres. Skenes has the elite stuff to neutralize San Diego’s dangerous lineup, while Pittsburgh’s offense has several hitters with the platoon advantage against Michael King. Brandon Lowe, in particular, owns significant power upside and could make an impact against King.
Pittsburgh also enters with a favorable price as an underdog, creating added betting value. If Skenes delivers a quality start and the Pirates capitalize on their offensive opportunities, Pittsburgh can pull off the road victory.
Score prediction: Pirates 4, Padres 3
💰 Pirates vs. Padres prediction & best bet
Pirates moneyline (+110)
Pittsburgh has the starting pitching advantage with Paul Skenes taking the ball, giving the Pirates a legitimate ace capable of controlling this matchup from the opening inning. Skenes also has the handedness advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr., one of San Diego’s most dangerous hitters.
Offensively, Pittsburgh should have opportunities against Michael King, as six projected Pirates hitters have the platoon advantage in this matchup. Oneil Cruz is especially appealing, ranking in the 94th percentile for overall offensive skill and 13th among MLB hitters in home run ability, according to THE BAT X projections. With the Padres favored around -118 and Pittsburgh available near +110, the Pirates offer appealing underdog value. If Skenes limits San Diego’s lineup and Cruz provides the power, Pittsburgh can pull off the road upset.
📡 SBR Edge: Skenes recent success
Paul Skenes has not allowed more than three earned runs over his last three starts, finally getting back on track. The team believes they have figured out why he was tipping his pitches earlier in the season and have corrected that.
🔥 Best Pirates vs. Padres player prop bet
Paul Skenes Over 5.5 strikeouts (-150)
Paul Skenes has a favorable opportunity to clear the 5.5-strikeout line Tuesday night against the Padres. The right-hander has recorded 171 strikeouts across 139 innings this season, averaging nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings. While Skenes has dealt with some recent inconsistency, his swing-and-miss stuff remains elite, giving him a high ceiling whenever he can work efficiently.
He also struck out six Padres hitters in 6⅓ innings during his previous meeting with San Diego this season. If Skenes can avoid the walks that have shortened some of his recent outings, he should have enough opportunities to attack the Padres lineup. Six strikeouts is a modest number for a pitcher with Skenes’ strikeout ability, making the Over 5.5 an appealing player-prop target.
💣 Pirates vs. Padres home run prediction
Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+450)
Brandon Lowe is an appealing home run pick Tuesday night after already reaching 27 homers and 80 RBIs this season. The left-handed slugger has been swinging a hot bat recently, recording a hit in 19 of his last 25 games while providing consistent power in Pittsburgh’s lineup.
Lowe also comes into this matchup with plenty of confidence after launching a dramatic walk-off home run against Detroit last week, his 27th homer of the season. With Paul Skenes giving Pittsburgh opportunities to stay competitive and Lowe possessing legitimate power, he has a strong chance to deliver another long ball against San Diego.
🚀 Pirates vs. Padres same-game parlay
If Skenes can stay composed, and can keep the Padres offense in check, the Pirates will have no issue winning this game, and cashing our SGP here.
💵 Pirates vs. Padres SGP picks
- Pirates moneyline (+110)
- Paul Skenes Over 5.5 strikeouts (-150)
- Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+450)
Best odds: +950 via FanDuel (.1u -> .95u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 7, 2026.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-21-1 | +5.2 units ✅ | 79.76% ✅ |
| Game picks | 18-8-0 | +7.9 units ✅ | 56.99% ✅ |
| Player props | 7-11-1 | -6.3 units ❌ | 48.91% ❌ |
| Parlays | 3-2-0 | +3.6 units ✅ | +88.88% ✅ |
📊 Live Pirates vs. Padres odds
📈 Pirates vs. Padres betting trends
| Pirates | Statistic | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| 64-69 | W-L record | 71-61 |
| 65-68 | Run line record | 75-57 |
| 72-57-4 | O/U record | 58-71-3 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 4.26 | Team ERA | 3.99 |
| .253 | Team batting avg. | .238 |
| .736 | OPS | .706 |
🚑 Pirates vs. Padres injuries
📺 How to watch Pirates vs. Padres
- Date: Tuesday, Aug. 25
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Pirates starter: Paul Skenes (9-11, 3.95 ERA)
- Padres starter: Michael King (8-9, 3.38 ERA)
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