MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Tuesday, Aug. 25)
We beat the closing line on all three of our MLB home run picks Monday night, but none of them ended up hitting. Luckily for us, we have a 15-game slate to bounce back. My home run predictions today include Bryce Harper, Randy Arozarena and Michael Conforto, who all have favorable pitching matchups Tuesday.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 25
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper to homer (+481 via DraftKings) | 0.42u β 2u | Kirby throws primarily fastballs and breaking balls to LHH, and Harper is slugging .578 and .476 against them, respectively. |
| Randy Arozarena to homer (+557 via DraftKings) | 0.36u β 2u | Arozarena is slugging .469 and .513 against fastballs and breaking balls, respectively, which are Nola's go-to pitches vs. RHH. |
| Michael Conforto to homer (+650 via DraftKings) | 0.31u β 2u | Pfaadt throws 51.2% fastballs to LHH, and Conforto is slugging .579 against fastballs. |
Total wagered: 1.09 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+481)
I took Harper yesterday at +460, and I'm going back to the well with him at greater odds with Mariners starter George Kirby on the mound.
Kirby throws 48% fastballs and 41.1% breaking balls to left-handed hitters. That's great for Harper, as he is slugging .578 and .476 against those pitches, respectively. Harper has struggled against offspeed pitches this season, but Kirby only throws them 10.9% of the time to lefties.
DraftKings' +481 odds for Harper to homer are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
💵 SBR Edge: Back Harper in Seattle
Harper has homered four times across his 10 career games at T-Mobile Park.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Randy Arozarena (+557)
Not only has Arozarena homered three times across his last three games, but he's in a good spot to go yard again today with the Phillies starting Aaron Nola.
The 33-year-old veteran throws fastballs 55.8% of the time to right-handed hitters. Breaking balls are his second-most used pitch (37.2%) in that split. Meanwhile, Arozarena is slugging .469 and .513 against fastballs and breaking balls, respectively, so he has a strong chance of hitting a home run today.
Arozarena to homer (+557) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
Home run pick: Michael Conforto (+650)
While Conforto hasn't been hitting for average lately - he's batting just .229 in August - his power hasn't gone anywhere. He's slugging .543 this month and has homered in back-to-back games.
Today, he faces Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt, who throws 51.2% fastballs to left-handed hitters. Conforto has been crushing fastballs, slugging .579 against them and .500 against breaking balls, which Pfaadt throws 23.5% of the time.
Conforto to homer (+650) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Bryce Harper to homer
- Randy Arozarena to homer
- Michael Conforto to homer
Best odds: +25640 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-54-4 | -12.13 units β | -18.4% β |
| Player props | 8-42-3 | -9.53 units β | -27.8% β |
| Game props | 7-5 | -0.55 units β | -2.5% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units β | -100% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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