Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Tuesday, Aug. 25
📡 SBR Edge: Back Holmes, Pfaadt Early
My best NRFI bets today include Cubs vs. Diamondbacks NRFI (-115) and Phillies vs. Mariners YRFI (-102). Neither Cubs starter Clay Holmes nor Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a first-inning run in four of his last five starts, while Mariners starter George Kirby has given up one or more in each of his last two.
βΎ Best NRFI bets today: Aug. 25
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ NRFI pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cubs vs. Diamondbacks NRFI (-115 via FanDuel) | 2.3u β 1.5u | Neither Holmes nor Pfaadt has allowed a first-inning run in 4 of his last 5 starts. |
| Phillies vs. Mariners YRFI (-102 via BetMGM) | 1.53u β 1u | Kirby has allowed one or more first-inning runs in back-to-back starts. |
Total wagered: 3.83 units | Max profit: 3.5 units
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π° Best NRFI bet today
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks NRFI (9:40 p.m. ET)
- Clay Holmes (2.49 ERA) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (3.39 ERA)
- NRFI records: Cubs (71-61) vs. Diamondbacks (58-74)
There's a lot to like with this NRFI at -115. Neither Holmes nor Pfaadt has allowed a first-inning run in four of his last five starts.
While Holmes is the main driver behind this bet - he ranks in the 87th percentile in barrel rate, so the Diamondbacks will struggle to make meaningful contact - Pfaadt has been above average lately. He has a 1.71 ERA through four starts in August and has recorded zero earned runs in four of his last five.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks NRFI (-115) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
💵 Clay Should Feel at Home in Phoenix
Current Diamondbacks hitters are slashing a combined .216/.293/.243 against Holmes in their careers.
π₯ More NRFI picks today
Phillies vs. Mariners YRFI (9:40 p.m. ET)
- Aaron Nola (5.12 ERA) vs. George Kirby (4.18 ERA)
- NRFI records: Phillies (62-70) vs. Mariners (60-72)
We have two pitchers I want to fade facing each other tonight in Seattle: Kirby and Phillies starter Aaron Nola. Kirby has allowed one or more first-inning runs in each of his last two starts, and Nola has been trending downward the past two seasons, posting ERAs over 5.00 in each.
Nola ranks in the first percentile in pitching run value and in the 18th percentile in barrel rate, so Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez have a strong chance of helping this YRFI cash tonight. Phillies vs. Mariners YRFI (-102) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
⚾️ More MLB props today
Looking for more? Dive into my home run predictions today.
ποΈ Most-bet NRFIs today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
1. Pirates vs. Padres (-150)
2. Guardians vs. Angels (-155)
3. Red Sox vs. Marlins (-150)
4. Brewers vs. Mets (-135)
5. Cubs vs. Diamondbacks (-120)
π Best NRFI parlay today
Parlaying these two bets at BetMGM pays +263.
💵 Best NRFI parlay today
- Cubs vs. Diamondbacks NRFI
- Phillies vs. Mariners YRFI
Best odds: +263 via BetMGM
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-54-4 | -12.13 units β | -18.4% β |
| Player props | 8-42-3 | -9.53 units β | -27.8% β |
| Game props | 7-5 | -0.55 units β | -2.5% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units β | -100% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
β NRFI betting FAQ
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of a NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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