Rays vs. Tigers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, Aug. 24

The Detroit Tigers look to stop the bleeding and remain in contention for a playoff spot against the AL-best Tampa Bay Rays when they start a three-game series at Comerica Park in Detroit. My Rays vs. Tigers prediction expects the road favorites to jump out to an early lead, with Chandler Simpson continuing to be a terror at the plate. We’re also getting great odds for the best home run hitter on either side, Junior Caminero, to go yard with the last of my MLB picks.

The starting pitching matchup is between Drew Rasmussen and Framber Valdez, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1). The Rays are -140 betting favorites.

⚾ Rays vs. Tigers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.28 units

🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Tigers?

Tampa Bay has feasted on teams that are under .500 all season long, and I expect it to win this series opener against the struggling Tigers.

Score prediction: Rays 4, Tigers 3

💰 Rays vs. Tigers prediction & best bet

Rays first five innings ML (-148)

Tampa Bay improved to 52-29 against teams with a losing record when it salvaged the final game of the series against Baltimore. But Detroit has been even less consistent, having lost five straight and eight of nine, with three or fewer runs scored in four of the five losses during the losing streak.

The Rays used three relievers yesterday who combined for one earned run over three innings. But I’m limiting this moneyline wager to the first five innings since their bullpen had pitched to a 5.80 ERA with eight home runs allowed over the previous 2-7 stretch.

🔥 Best Rays vs. Tigers player prop bet

Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 runs (+160)

Chandler Simpson has been the Rays’ hottest hitter of late. He enters amid a 14-game hit streak during which he has batted .407, while logging a .419 on-base percentage and .860 OPS.

Simpson is a menace when he gets on base because of speed that is unmatched by any player in the game. He has stolen eight bases this month, and he has to be due for positive regression from a run scoring standpoint after following up a three-game streak with a run by crossing the plate just once in his last 11 games. 

Framber Valdez hasn’t looked like his vintage self of late, coming off a July where he pitched to a 7.13 ERA, and allowing nine combined runs in his last two starts.

💣 Rays vs. Tigers home run prediction

Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+400)

Valdez is on pace for his second-worst HR/9 rate over the last five seasons, and the normally elite ground ball inducer is pitching to a career-worst rate (53.6%). For context, he had a ground ball rate worse than 58.3% just one other time in his nine-year career.

Junior Caminero hasn’t homered in 11 straight games (his longest drought of the season is 12 games), but is still a threat to go yard with every swing as he leads the Majors in bat speed. He also has an extra-base hit or multi-hit game in three of the last five, so it isn’t like he is completely lost at the plate.

🚀 Rays vs. Tigers same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely together in helping Tampa Bay build an early lead. I am swapping out my Simpson to score a run prop given that he has gone much of the last two weeks without crossing the plate. Instead, with the Tigers as underdogs, I'm backing the trend of their offense producing low-scoring outputs in games they don't win.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Rays vs. Tigers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

In a matchup of two struggling teams, I thought long and hard about foregoing a moneyline play and instead focusing on the total. And while Tampa Bay's offense only scored eight runs in the weekend series against the Orioles, the combination of its bullpen pitching poorly and Detroit's offense breaking out for seven runs in a high-scoring loss had me pumping the brakes on backing the Under.

My threshold for betting on favorites on the moneyline is usually -160 (61.54% implied odds), so Tampa Bay's -148 odds to be leading after the first five innings are within my wheelhouse. It is starting to finally feel like trading Tarik Skubal is leading to Detroit's undoing down the final stretch.

📊 Live Rays vs. Tigers odds

Bettors seem much more concerned with Detroit's recent struggles than Tampa Bay's, as the moneyline movement has shifted massively in the Rays' favor overnight, moving as much as 15 cents (from -130 to -145 at BetMGM for example). While the betting splits are somewhat lopsided with 63% of the bets coming in on the road favorites, it's more likely than sharp support on Tampa Bay is causing a lot of the movement.

By comparison, there has been absolutely no movement on the total despite similar betting splits (62/38 in favor of the Over). The line has remained frozen at an O/U of 7.5 across the market overnight, with only slight fluctuations in the juice on either side of the total.

📈 Rays vs. Tigers betting trends

🚑 Rays vs. Tigers injuries

📺 How to watch Rays vs. Tigers

• Date: Monday, Aug. 24
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Comerica Park (Detroit)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (13-5, 3.01 ERA)
• Tigers starter: Framber Valdez (8-8, 4.35 ERA)