Pirates vs. Dodgers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, Aug. 22
The Pirates take on the Dodgers today following an extra-innings loss to open this series Friday. My Pirates vs. Dodgers prediction features a run line, two player props, and an SGP.
The Dodgers sit comfortably in second place overall in the National League. However, the Pirates are in win-now mode, currently 6½ games back from the final NL Wild Card seed.
Jared Jones squares off today against Tarik Skubal, with first pitch from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX, MLB.TV). The Dodgers are a -260 betting favorite.
⚾ Pirates vs. Dodgers picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates +1.5 (-102 via BetMGM) | 1.02u → 1u | Tarik Skubal is 0-3 as a run line favorite (-1.5) during his tenure with the Dodgers. |
| Max Muncy Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110 via DraftKings) | 2.2u → 2u | Muncy has cashed O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in 4 of last 5 starts for the Dodgers. |
| Rafael Flores Jr. to homer (+586 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.46u | Flores has mashed 5 of his 6 home runs in August. |
Total wagered: 3.47 units | Max profit: 4.46 units
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🏆 Who will win Pirates vs. Dodgers?
Expect fireworks at Dodger Stadium with two of the league's top-five hitting lineups going head-to-head tonight. Oneil Cruz's return from injury has already spiked the Pirates' production, while Skubal just gave up 7 hits in his last start. Dodgers find a way to post a 6-5 win.
Score prediction: Dodgers 6, Pirates 5
💰 Pirates vs. Dodgers prediction & best bet
Pirates +1.5 (-102)
It's tough to fade the Dodgers on any given night. However, Los Angeles is only 55-74 on the run line in 2026. This includes newly acquired ace Tarik Skubal, going 0-3 on -1.5 run lines since being acquired in a trade from the Tigers.
Pittsburgh's lineup is among the best in the MLB. It's ranked third in batting average (.255) and fourth in OPS (.743). It's the pitching and bullpen that have slid the Pirates outside of the playoff picture.
Jared Jones is in the 74th percentile for xBA (.219) and in the 88th percentile in whiff rate (31.0) in 2026. He struggles with his barrel percentage and hard-hit rate, but we only need Pittsburgh to cover +1.5 tonight.
Let's go to BetMGM and bet on the Pirates' +1.5 run line at -102 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Bounce-Back Road Warriors
The Pirates are 31-17 on the run line following a road loss in 2026.
🔥 Best Pirates vs. Dodgers player prop bet
Max Muncy Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
Max Muncy is batting cleanup in the Dodgers' lineup tonight. The veteran 3B has been hot at the plate lately, going Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in four of his last five starts.
Jared Jones has allowed 18 hits across his last three starts for the Pirates. This includes 12 earned runs and at least one home run in every outing.
Muncy's hitting metrics pop off the page. He's 86th in xSLG (.478), 90th in barrel rate (13.8), and 76th in hard-hit percentage (45.7) this season.
Head to DraftKings to bet on Max Muncy's Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs prop at -110 odds.
💣 Pirates vs. Dodgers home run prediction
Rafael Flores Jr. to hit a home run (+586)
Rafael Flores Jr. has been mashing the baseball in August. Called up in June, the Pirates' 25-year-old catcher logged two home runs against the Tigers on Aug. 19.
Tarik Skubal's in the 53rd percentile for barrel percentage (7.3). Flores' power at the plate can easily go yard at Dodger Stadium tonight.
Flores is flying under the radar in a game filled with Dodgers star power and Oneil Cruz in the Pirates' lineup. Bet on Flores' home run prop at +586 odds on DraftKings.
🚀 Pirates vs. Dodgers same-game parlay
Shohei Ohtani has at least 1 hit in four of his past five starts for the Dodgers. Nick Gonzales has a three-game hit streak intact for the Pirates, amassing five total hits during this recent stretch, including a pair of multi-hit efforts. Bet this SGP at +121 odds on FanDuel.
💵 Pirates vs. Dodgers SGP picks
- Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits (-230)
- Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 Hits (-185)
Best odds: +121 via FanDuel (1u -> 1.21u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 53-104-3 | -17.45 units ❌ | -11.4% ❌ |
| Game picks | 18-19-2 | -0.58 units ❌ | -1.49% ❌ |
| Player props | 20-62-1 | -11.10 units ❌ | -17.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 15-23 | -5.77 units ❌ | -17.0% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Pirates vs. Dodgers: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
In tonight's Pirates vs. Dodgers game, I'm staking a total of 4.47 units on four total wagers to win 5.67.
It starts with a 1.02-unit play on the Pirates' run line to win 1 unit. Then, hiking up to 2.2 units on Max Muncy's Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs to win 2 units of profit.
A 0.25-unit play on Flores wins 1.46 units. Then, a final 1 unit play on a two-leg 1+ hits SGP on Shohei Ohtani and Nick Gonzales yields 1.21 units of profit.
📊 Live Pirates vs. Dodgers odds
Since opening, the Dodgers have crept down from -260 to -253 moneyline favorites. The run total has stayed neutral at 7.5.
Public money is hammering the Dodgers with 91 percent of bets, including 78 percent of run line wagers. 68 percent of action is also on over 7.5.
📈 Pirates vs. Dodgers betting trends
| Pirates | Statistic | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| 63-67 | W-L record | 78-51 |
| 59-71 | Run line record | 55-74 |
| 72-54-4 | O/U record | 60-66-3 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 4.29 | Team ERA | 3.70 |
| .255 | Team batting avg. | .259 |
| .743 | OPS | .764 |
🚑 Pirates vs. Dodgers injuries
📺 How to watch Pirates vs. Dodgers
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 22
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Pirates starter: Jared Jones (2-5, 4.78 ERA)
- Dodgers starter: Tarik Skubal (7-7, 2.85 ERA)
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