MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Friday, Aug. 21
There is baseball being played at the hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight, and that almost always automatically signals a player from the Colorado Rockies or their opponent as one of my best home run predictions today.
It’s not just ballpark environments that factor into my MLB home run picks, as it is also to back red-hot batters. That is why Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis Jr. are added to my portfolio, with the last play coming from an Arizona Diamondbacks slugger amid a 13-game hitting streak.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds August 21
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno to hit a home run (+840 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 2.1u | Moreno is amid a career-high 13-game hit streak |
| Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+325 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.81u | Alonso needs one home run to record his sixth straight 30-homer season |
| Cole Carrigg to hit a home run (+690 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.73u | Carrigg is the best right-handed bat to take advantage of Cantillo at Coors Field |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+395 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.99u | Tatis Jr. hasn't looked back after going homerless through his first 50 games |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 5.63 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Gabriel Moreno (+840)
Gabriel Moreno brings a career-high 13-game hit streak into this series opener. Over that stretch, he batted .370 with 11 extra-base hits and 13 RBIs.
Moreno is 1-for-5 against Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo. But he has averaged a home run every 25 at-bats against left-handed pitchers compared to one every 42 at-bats against righties.
I look for Moreno to use his 1.056 OPS over the last 15 days to take Lodolo deep. Lodolo has allowed at least one homer in four of five road starts, including a season-high three in his last road outing.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+325)
Pete Alonso entered yesterday amid an 11-game hit streak, during which he batted .476 with six home runs and 11 RBI. His 163 wRC+ since May 18 is sixth-best (min 175 PA), and he was tied for fourth with 57 RBI during that span.
There is a historical factor in backing Alonso, as he ranks in the top 10 for most home runs hit through a player’s first 1,134 career games (292). But more recently, he has the fourth-highest hard-hit rate of any player in 2026 (min. 300 PA).
Alonso has power to all fields, with the fifth-highest slugging percentage to the non-pull side since 2025 (min. 250 PA). But he hasn’t relied on opposite field power, posting a career-low pull percentage (34.2%).
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple TV
📡 SBR Edge: Alonso in rarified air
Pete Alonso entered yesterday leading the Majors in both batting average (.424) and slugging percentage (.848) against pitches at least 96 mph this season (min. 40 PA).
Home run pick: Cole Carrigg (+690)
With Guardians southpaw Joey Cantillo on the mound in his first career start at Coors Field, I wanted to back a right-handed Rockies slugger given the southpaw's splits. Cantillo has allowed 12 of his 15 home runs to right-handed batters, and his OBA is 55 points worse on the road than at home.
Hunter Goodman and Kyle Karros are on the IL, which means Cole Carrigg slides in as my right-handed value pick of the day. Carrigg has quietly hit five home runs in 199 at-bats, but his stats are inflated at Coors Field (.323/.387/.510 slash line in home games). He also crushes left-handed pitching, with a .308 batting average and .495 slugging percentage.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+395)
From 2023-25, Tatis Jr. had a 61.2% non-pull percentage and a 13.7% pull air percentage. Over the first 50 games this season, he had a 52.1% non-pull percentage and 6.4% pull air rate. But over the last 75 games, his non-pull percentage plummeted to 37.6%, while he was pulling the ball 38.8% of the time, and in the air at a 13.2% clip.
Against fastballs over the last 75 games, he is batting .326 with a .494 slugging percentage and five home runs. And against breaking balls, he is batting .318 with seven homers, and his .625 slugging percentage in that split is tied for the eighth highest since May 24 (min. 50 PA).
It turns out the long wait for Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit his first homer this season was well worth it. In the first 50 games leading up to his first home run, Tatis Jr. slashed .238/.319/.276 with a 73 wRC+. He then hit his first home run in the 51st game, and over the next 75, slashed .306/.374/.528 with 15 long balls and a 149 wRC+.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Gabriel Moreno to hit a home run (+840)
- Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+309)
- Cole Carrigg to hit a home run (+690)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+395)
Best odds: +150243 via Sportsbook (0.1u -> 150.2u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 235-379-1 | +48.62 units ✅ | +12.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 144-308 | +35.67 units ✅ | +16.2% ✅ |
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