Braves vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, Aug. 21

The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers are two of three 75-win NL teams and will provide a potential playoff preview in a three-game series starting tonight at American Family Field. My Braves vs. Brewers prediction expects the home favorites to win behind Cy Young Award favorite Jacob Misiorowski.

I also expect Joey Ortiz to improve upon his stellar career numbers against Chris Sale, while Austin Riley is a great value play to go deep with the last of my MLB picks. This is the earliest game on Friday's slate, with a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch (ESPN Unlimited). The Brewers are -150 betting favorites.

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🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Brewers?

Milwaukee has a much better record than Atlanta against teams over .500, and I also expect travel concerns to catch up with the Braves in this series opener.

Score prediction: Brewers 4, Braves 2

💰 Braves vs. Brewers prediction & best bet

Brewers ML (-141)

Atlanta is amid a scheduling nightmare with this being its third straight game in three different cities. While the Braves did well to rebound from a three-game road sweep against the Twins, their offense still managed just two runs. That followed a 10-game stretch where the team ranked 22nd in batting average and 26th in wRC+ while going 2-8. 

With Atlanta’s bats struggling, it is difficult to envision a path to consistent offense when facing the flamethrowing Jacob Misiorowski. His 291 strikeouts are the second most through the first 200 innings as a starter in the expansion era since 1961. 

🔥 Best Braves vs. Brewers player prop bet

Joey Ortiz Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+180)

Oddsmakers rightfully predict a pitcher’s duel in this matchup between Sale and Misiorowski. That means we’re getting great value on a player who not only has been red hot at the plate, but who also is one of the few players with great career success against the Braves southpaw.

Joey Ortiz has slashed .353/.410/.647 with four home runs and 15 RBI over the last 23 games. And in a 10 at-bat sample size against Sale, he has a .864 OPS with two of his three hits going for extra bases.

While Sale has made five consecutive quality starts, he has also allowed three earned runs twice in that span. There’s an outside chance this Over will cash with a multi-hit game from Ortiz, but I’ll take my chances that he gets there by either driving in a run and/or scoring at least once.

💣 Braves vs. Brewers home run prediction

Austin Riley to hit a home run (+700)

Chris Sale’s 0.56 HR/9 rate is the lowest among all qualified pitchers, and he faces a Brewers lineup that has hit the fewest long balls in the Majors. That combination has me backing a Braves slugger to go yard, even though Jacob Misiorowski also sits in the top 10 in lowest home run rate.

Misiorowski has reverse splits, allowing a slugging percentage 102 points worse against right-handed batters than lefties. In his last start, he threw four-seam fastballs 63.8% of the time the first time through the batting order, and 80% fastballs the second time around. That fits Riley’s wheelhouse, as he is due positive regression with a .428 xSLG against four-seamers compared to his actual .318 slugging percentage in that split.

If you're looking for more taters today, I have you covered with my best MLB home run predictions today.

🚀 Braves vs. Brewers same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely in helping Milwaukee’s chances of winning outright. I didn’t want to load up this SGP too much with offensive player props given the low O/U of 6 runs for the game. But Ortiz has gone Over this projected total in three straight games and six of the last seven. Meanwhile, Ozzie Albies entered yesterday batting .201 in his previous 51 games. That was the sixth-lowest average in the Majors since June 22 (min. 200 PA).

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There haven't been many starting pitching matchups better this season than Sale vs. Misiorowski, so my first thought naturally was to back the Under. But even though Atlanta's offense has struggled, I have too much respect for the Brewers' ability to put the bat on the ball. That not only lowers Sale's ceiling for strikeouts, but also makes for the likelihood of a shorter outing. 

If anyone prefers a play on the total, the only one I would advise at these odds is Atlanta's team total Under 2.5 (-115 is the best price at bet365), as the full game O/U of 6 runs doesn't provide great value.

📊 Live Braves vs. Brewers odds

Milwaukee's shortest moneyline odds are at DraftKings (-141, 58.51% implied odds), but that's a result of a big movement off the opening number of -150, which aligned with where the rest of the high point of the market is currently. BetMGM and bet365 remain at -150, but those best sports betting sites could shorten the Brewers' odds as well if the Braves continue to get nearly half of the betting support they've already gotten (49%).

There is major reverse line movement on the total, as all sportsbooks have lowered from an original number of 6.5 to 6 despite the Over receiving 62% of wagers. That also signals sharp action on the Under in a matchup of two standout starting pitchers.

📈 Braves vs. Brewers betting trends

🚑 Braves vs. Brewers injuries

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Brewers

• Date: Friday, Aug. 21
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Braves starter: Chris Sale (12-8, 2.16 ERA)
• Brewers starter: Jacob Misiorowski (12-5, 1.75 ERA)