Astros vs. Yankees Win Probability: Who Will Win Tonight’s MLB Game? (Aug. 26)

RHP Peter Lambert and RHP Elmer Rodriguez square off tonight in the second game of a three-game set as we break down the Astros vs. Yankees win probability.

The Yankees have a 52% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be higher considering how poorly the Astros have played lately. First pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., is set for 7:05 p.m. ET (Prime Video, ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV).

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🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Yankees? Live MLB win probability

The Yankees have a 52% win probability, and more than $356,000 has already been traded in this market. New York's win probability opened at 60% Monday morning, but money has come in on the Astros as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Yankees are available at 54¢, with more than $291,000 in liquidity at that price.

The Astros won for just the third time in nine games with a 9-7 victory over the Yankees in Tuesday's series opener. Yordan Alvarez (2-for-5, 1 RBI) hit a go-ahead triple in the eighth inning, and Yainer Diaz (3-for-4, 3 RBIs) hit two solo shots and added an RBI single in the ninth to extend the lead to two runs.

The Yankees lost for just the second time in eight games Tuesday. Luis Garcia Jr. (2-for-5, 3 RBIs) hit a two-run homer in the fifth inning, and Cody Bellinger (1-for-5, 3 RBIs) hit a three-run shot in the third. The Yankees are 20-15 since the All-Star break, despite still being without Aaron Judge (ribs).

My prediction: Yankees win (54¢). New York is 10-4 after a loss since the All-Star break and has scored seven or more runs in back-to-back games. Against Lambert, who has a 6.98 ERA across his four starts in August, the Yankees' offense will likely be productive enough to pick up the win.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Astros vs. Yankees?

While Yordan Alvarez hasn't homered in nine straight games, he still leads the American League with 36 home runs on the season, so it makes sense that he has the highest probability in this market at 23%.

Yankees sluggers Ben Rice (20%), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (17%), and Bellinger (14%) have the next-highest probabilities. Chisholm last hit a home run Sunday at Yankee Stadium, while Bellinger homered two nights later.

My prediction: Ben Rice to hit a home run (20¢). Lambert throws 47.8% fastballs against left-handed hitters (his most-used pitch), and Rice is slugging .633 against fastballs. The Astros starter ranks in the 38th percentile in fastball velocity (93.8 mph), so Rice shouldn't struggle to hit one hard tonight. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Astros vs. Yankees?

More than $7,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 50% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 52¢, you can instantly get more than $30,000 filled.

The Astros have had a first-inning run scored in 56% of their games, while the Yankees have seen a first-inning run in 49% of theirs. Lambert has allowed a first-inning run in three straight starts, while Rodriguez has allowed one in just one of his four career starts.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (52¢). It's hard to buy No contracts in this market with Lambert starting for the Astros. He's struggled early on in recent starts, and Garcia and Bellinger are a combined 6-for-14 against him in their careers with a home run and two doubles. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of my NRFIs today.

🔢 Astros vs. Yankees confirmed lineups

Last updated at 4:38 p.m. ET.

📊 Astros vs. Yankees win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Astros vs. Yankees

• Date: Wednesday, Aug. 26
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
• TV: Prime Video, ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
• Astros starter: Peter Lambert (8-7, 3.68 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Elmer Rodriguez (0-2, 4.76 ERA)