MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Aug. 26
After a few close calls Tuesday night, my MLB home run picks sadly didn't turn a profit. With a loaded Wednesday slate - including afternoon games - there's plenty of opportunity to bounce back. My home run predictions today feature Shohei Ohtani, Ben Rice, and Fernando Tatis Jr.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 26
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+270 via BetMGM) | 0.74u β 2u | Ohtani has a .675 xSLG vs. fastballs, Smith-Shawver's go-to pitch vs. LHH. |
| Ben Rice to homer (+339 via DraftKings) | 0.59u β 2u | Rice is slugging .633 vs. fastballs, Lambert's most-used pitch vs. LHH. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. to homer (+575 via BetRivers) | 0.35u β 2u | Chandler throws primarily fastballs and breaking balls to RHH, and Tatis has a .493 and .483 xSLG against those pitches, respectively. |
Total wagered: 1.68 units | Max profit: 6 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+270)
Ohtani hasn't homered in five straight games. The last time he went six games without a home run was during a nine-game drought from July 17-26.
He has a good pitching matchup to snap his drought today. Fastballs are Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver's most-used pitch against left-handed hitters (45.4% usage in 2025), and Ohtani has a .675 expected slugging percentage against fastballs.
BetMGM's +270 odds for Ohtani to homer are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB Network, MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Check the Hard-Hit Rate
Smith-Shawver allowed the seventh-highest hard-hit rate in MLB in 2025 (min. 100 batted ball events). Ohtani ranks 11th in hard-hit rate this season.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+339)
Like Ohtani, Rice hasn't homered in any of his last five games, but he's in a good spot today to finally cash this bet.
He faces Astros starter Peter Lambert, who just allowed nine earned runs against the Angels last time out. Rice is slugging .633 against fastballs, which happens to be Lambert's most-used pitch (47.8%) against left-handed hitters. With Lambert posting a 6.98 ERA across his last four starts, Rice has a decent shot to go yard on a fastball.
Rice to homer (+339) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Prime Video, ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+575)
Tatis has been among the hottest hitters in MLB this month. He's slashing .294/.365/.682 in August and has homered four times across his last seven games.
He'll go against Pirates starter Bubba Chandler today, who throws 56% fastballs and 36.4% breaking balls to right-handed hitters. Tatis has a .493 and .483 expected slugging percentage against those pitches, respectively, and that includes his slow start to the season (he didn't hit his first homer until May 30).
Tatis to homer (+575) at BetRivers is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ More MLB player props
Looking for more? Dive into Mike Spector's Cubs vs. Diamondbacks prediction or his Dodgers vs. Braves prediction.
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | 1+ home runs | +250 |
| Ryan Gusto | Marlins | 4+ strikeouts | -125 |
| Joey Cantillo | Guardians | 7+ strikeouts | -115 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | Braves | Over 4.5 hits allowed | -110 |
| Bryan Woo | Mariners | Under 5.5 strikeouts | -150 |
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shohei Ohtani to homer
- Ben Rice to homer
- Fernando Tatis Jr. to homer
Best odds: +6607 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-58-4 | -12.74 units β | -18% β |
| Player props | 8-45-3 | -10.61 units β | -30% β |
| Game props | 8-6 | -0.08 units β | -0.3% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units β | -100% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
Related Articles
