Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, Aug. 26

Two teams competing for an NL wild card spot meet in the rubber match of a three-game series as the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Chicago Cubs at Chase Field. In a matchup of two left-handed starting pitchers (Matthew Boyd vs. Eduardo Rodriguez), my Cubs vs. Diamondbacks prediction backs the home underdogs given their success against southpaws.

I also add player props from one of each team’s players to round out my MLB picks, including Nolan Arenado and Nico Hoerner. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), and the game is a virtual pick'em, with each team having -110 moneyline odds.

⚾ Cubs vs. Diamondbacks picks & odds today

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Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.17 units

🏆 Who will win Cubs vs. Diamondbacks?

Eduardo Rodriguez is one of 11 pitchers with 13-plus wins, and I expect him to lead Arizona to a victory in this series finale.

Score prediction: Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 4

💰 Cubs vs. Diamondbacks prediction & best bet

Diamondbacks ML (-104)

While Chicago is 24-14 against left-handed starting pitchers this season, Arizona has outdone the Cubs in that split going 23-11.

I fully trust Eduardo Rodriguez more in this spot than I do Matthew Boyd. Rodriguez has pitched to a 1.93 ERA and an 18:4 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, with the team logging a plus-18 run differential in that span. Even more impressive is that two of those wins came against two of the NL’s three best teams, and two of the league’s top eight offenses (Braves and Dodgers).

🔥 Best Cubs vs. Diamondbacks player prop bet

Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-140)

Nico Hoerner was the subject of an MLB.com feature following an impressive 4-for-5 performance last week. That is because he led the NL in batting average in the 31 games post-All-Star Break to that point (.358), while his .301 xBA was third in the Majors behind just AL MVP candidates Yordan Alvarez and Bobby Witt Jr.

Hoerner's BABIP splits from the first half of the season to the second half are eye-popping. He had a .243 BABIP prior to the All-Star Break, bottoming out at .216 after May 1. But he entered last weekend with a ridiculous .383 BABIP in the second half. 

I’m looking to Hoerner’s hits + runs + RBIs prop because of how consistently clutch he has been. Since 2022, Hoerner ranks in the top 21 in batting average with runners in scoring position (min. 500 chances).

💣 Cubs vs. Diamondbacks home run prediction

Nolan Arenado to hit a home run (+600)

In most offensive categories, Nolan Arenado is enjoying his best season since 2022 when he led the NL in WAR. After already reaching the 2,000-hit milestone this season, he looks to wrap up another one by the end of next season, as he is 26 home runs away from the 400-home run club.

I’m giving Arenado a pass for a poor beginning to the series (an 0-for-3 effort) as he was 3-for-21 in his career against Kevin Gausman entering that game. While he is just 2-for-9 in his career against Matthew Boyd, the southpaw has allowed a troubling eight home runs in 25 innings this month, with 13 of his 14 on the season coming against right-handed batters.

🚀 Cubs vs. Diamondbacks same-game parlay

The Diamondbacks stand a much better chance of winning outright if Nolan Arenado has a big day at the plate. While I am being more aggressive with a play on him to homer as a standalone wager, I'm taking the more cautious route with him need to record just one base hit to cash that leg of this SGP. Hoerner hit safely in 11 of 13 games prior to two hitless games to start this series, while Arenado had four multi-hit games in his previous 10.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cubs vs. Diamondbacks: MLB strategy

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Going against a Chicago team who has been one of MLB's best for the last two months is risky. But it's less risky when realizing that Arizona is 6-1 in Rodriguez's last seven starts and 10-3 in his last 13 home outings.

I also looked into backing some of Corbin Carroll's player props, like the Over on 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365 is the best price). He has hit four triples in August and 16 total this year, leaving him one shy of tying his single-season high from 2025. He is also looking to become the first player with 20 triples in a single season since 2007. However, I backed off of that when realizing that Boyd has limited left-handed batters to a .275 slugging percentage this year.

📊 Live Cubs vs. Diamondbacks odds

Money started coming in on Chicago early Tuesday morning, slightly shifting the betting split from 69/31 to 65/35 in the 7 a.m. ET hour. While those changes did not drastically impact the odds, it wouldn't be surprising to see bet365 and DraftKings align more with the rest of the market at a virtual pick'em, especially since the former is the only one of the best sports betting sites where one can back the Cubs at plus-money odds (+101, 49.75% implied probability).

The best MLB betting sites all align on an O/U of 8.5. But given the 55/45 betting split in support of the Over and juice as high as -120 on that side of the total, we may see some O/Us tick up to 9 before first pitch.

📈 Cubs vs. Diamondbacks betting trends

🚑 Cubs vs. Diamondbacks injuries

📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Diamondbacks

• Date: Wednesday, Aug. 26
• First pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Chase Field (Phoenix)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cubs starter: Matthew Boyd (8-2, 4.15 ERA)
• Diamondbacks starter: Eduardo Rodriguez (13-4, 2.61 ERA)