Giants vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, August 23

Jake Bennett takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox in today’s series finale against the San Francisco Giants, but the NL squad’s solid numbers against southpaws have me backing the Over with my Giants vs. Red Sox prediction. And given Matt Wilkinson’s inexperience in the big leagues, I am high on Ceddane Rafaela’s and Caleb Durbin’s player props to round out my MLB picks.

First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 3:15 p.m. ET (NBC). The Red Sox are -210 betting favorites.

⚾ Giants vs. Red Sox picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Giants vs. Red Sox?

Boston's dramatic come-from-behind victory in erasing a 2-0 deficit with three runs in the ninth inning yesterday should provide it enough momentum to finish the sweep of San Francisco.

Score prediction: Red Sox 5, Giants 4

💰 Giants vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet

Over 8 (-115)

San Francisco should be comfortable against a Boston southpaw for the second consecutive day. Prior to facing Patrick Sandoval, the Giants ranked in the top 10 in BABIP against left-handed pitching. And by loading up their lineup with mostly right-handed batters, they are at an advantage taking aim at the Green Monster instead of Fenway Park’s cavernous right field.

Trends support a high-scoring interleague affair. The Over has cashed in five of six games for the Red Sox, and is 5-1 in their last six games against NL West opponents.

🔥 Best Giants vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 runs (-105)

Giants lefty Matt Wilkinson is making just his second MLB appearance after pitching two scoreless innings against the Guardians last Wednesday. He allowed five fly balls to just two ground balls in that limited work, and that's a dangerous way to live at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Ceddane Rafela began the week becoming the first Red Sox player with three doubles in a game since Trevor Story in 2023. He has scored multiple runs in six games this month, and should put himself in scoring position offense with an OPS that is 59 points higher against left-handed pitchers than righties.

Boston is one of three AL teams that is at least seven games over .500 against left-handed starting pitching, and I expect its offense led by Rafaela to be the catalyst in another victory.

💣 Giants vs. Red Sox home run prediction

Caleb Durbin to hit a home run (+850)

Caleb Durbin entered this series as arguably the best third baseman in the Majors since June 1. In that span, he hit 11 home runs and was slashing .309/.380/.498 with a 144 wRC+. A big reason he led all third basemen in fWAR in that span is because he cut down his strikeout rate significantly as well (12.4%).

Durbin has already set a single-month high for RBI this season in August (18), and he needs one more long ball to guarantee a third consecutive month with at least three homers.

He is the perfect target to fade the fly ball pitching Wilkinson early, even if the majority of his at-bats will come against a Giants bullpen that ranks 19th in ERA since the start of July.

🚀 Giants vs. Red Sox same-game parlay

If the Over is to cash in this Giants-Red Sox tilt, Boston's biggest sluggers will likely have to produce. Rafaela has gone Over this projected total in three of the last five games, with four runs scored in that span. Meanwhile, Durbin has hit safely in six of seven games, with nine total hits in that stretch. Given that Durbin is more of a flier than a sure bet to homer, backing him to record a hit is the more conservative play that gives this SGP a better chance to cash.

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💡 How I'm betting Giants vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy

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I have no faith in any Giants pitcher besides Logan Webb (who started Friday), especially after Robbie Ray was traded. While I toyed with the idea of laying the 1.5 runs with the Red Sox, San Francisco's solid offensive numbers against southpaws titled my opinion towards the Over as the best bet.

These two teams combined for just two runs entering the ninth inning yesterday, but it is important to remember that baseball changes drastically day-to-day with new pitching matchups. In addition, temperatures were cooler in Boston last night than they will be for today's mid-afternoon tilt.

📊 Live Giants vs. Red Sox odds

There is a wide 15-cent gap between Boston's shortest -210 moneyline odds (carrying a 67.74% implied probability) and the -225 odds on the high end of the market at BetMGM. There hasn't been much movement yet despite San Francisco attracting 39% of the moneyline wagers. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that not much of that betting support to this point has been sharp action.

The total is at 8 runs at all the top sports betting sites except for bet365, which is the only one at 8.5. With a dead even 50/50 betting split on each side of the total so far, it seems the only things that will cause movement in the total before first pitch are sharp action or a change in the weather forecast.

📈 Giants vs. Red Sox betting trends

🚑 Giants vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Giants vs. Red Sox

• Date: Sunday, August 23
• First pitch: 3:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: NBC
• Giants starter: Matt Wilkinson (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Jake Bennett (7-6, 3.46 ERA)