Rays vs. Orioles Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, Aug. 23
The Tampa Bay Rays will attempt to avoid getting swept on the road by the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday afternoon. My Rays vs. Orioles prediction includes a First 5 moneyline, two player props, including a home run, and an SGP.
The Orioles are currently 1 game out of the final A.L. Wild Card seed. The Rays' lead atop the American League has been cut to 3 games after losing seven of their previous nine games.
Nick Martinez takes the bump against Shane Baz ahead of today's 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore (MLB.TV, ESPN Unlimited). The Rays are slight -106 road favorites.
⚾ Rays vs. Orioles picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Orioles First 5 Innings Moneyline (-112 via FanDuel) | 2.24u → 2u | Nick Martinez has allowed 17 hits and 10 earned runs in his last two starts for the Rays. |
| Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+137 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1.37u | Beavers has recorded Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in 4 consecutive starts for the Orioles. |
| Coby Mayo Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.06u | Mayo ranks 88th in hard-hit percentage (48.7) and 83rd percentile for barrel rate (12.6) in 2026. |
Total wagered: 3.49 units | Max profit: 4.43 units
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🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Orioles?
Shane Baz has pitched fairly well in recent starts, however, the Orioles' lineup hasn't given him run support. That changes in Camden Yards today, with Baltimore mashing Nick Martinez to the tune of a 6-4 win to complete the sweep over their A.L. East rivals.
Score prediction: Orioles 6, Rays 4
💰 Rays vs. Orioles prediction & best bet
Orioles First 5 Innings Moneyline (-112)
Nick Martinez has not had his best stuff lately. Tampa Bay's pitcher has surrendered at least eight hits in consecutive starts, while allowing 10 earned runs during this two-game slump.
The Orioles' lineup, led by Pete Alonso, is trending upward right now. Baltimore has also won five of the last six head-to-head matchups against the Rays.
Baz is 1-1-1 as a starter toward the First 5 moneyline across his last three starts. If it's a tie, we push (void) this wager.
Go to FanDuel for the best odds on the Orioles' First 5 Innings Moneyline at -112 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Home Dogs Bark The Loudest
The Orioles have won each of their last eight games as a home underdog against the Rays.
🔥 Best Rays vs. Orioles player prop bet
Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+137)
One of the most consistent pieces of the Orioles' offense lately has been Dylan Beavers. The LF has recorded Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in four straight starts for Baltimore.
He'll face Nick Martinez, who ranks poorly in key pitching metrics. Martinez is in the second percentile for whiff percentage (17.3), strikeout percentage (14.5), and sixth percentile for xBA (.279) in 2026.
Beavers has three home runs and a double during his active four-game streak. He's also facing a favorable matchup against Martinez today. Head to DraftKings to bet on Dylan Beavers' Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at +137 odds.
💣 Rays vs. Orioles home run prediction
Coby Mayo to hit a home run (+425)
We've already spent time analyzing how poorly Nick Martinez is pitching right now. Let's take a look at one of Baltimore's power hitters, Coby Mayo.
Mayo has gone yard in two of his last five starts for the Orioles. He's 90th in avg exit velo (92.2), 88th in hard-hit percentage (48.7), and 83rd percentile for barrel rate (12.6) this season.
Mayo has amassed 17 home runs in 2026. Martinez's barrel percentage sits at 7.3 in the 54th percentile, so Mayo is primed to find the bleachers in Baltimore this afternoon.
bet365 has the best line on Coby Mayo's home run prop at +425 odds.
🚀 Rays vs. Orioles same-game parlay
The NRFI has won in five of the last six head-to-head matchups between the Rays and Orioles. Coming off an extra-innings result on Saturday, it's unlikely we'll see a second straight game go past the 9th inning. This SGP nets +103 odds on DraftKings.
💵 Rays vs. Orioles SGP picks
- NRFI (-115)
- Extra Innings: No (-1200)
Best odds: +103 via DraftKings (1u -> 1.03u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 56-109-3 | -16.72 units ❌ | -10.2% ❌ |
| Game picks | 19-20-2 | -1.58 units ❌ | -3.85% ❌ |
| Player props | 22-65-1 | -8.10 units ❌ | -11.5% ❌ |
| Parlays | 15-24 | -7.04 units ❌ | -20.0% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Rays vs. Orioles: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm staking a total of 4.49 units on four bets in today's Rays vs. Orioles game to win 5.46 units of profit. It starts with a 2.24 unit wager on the Orioles' First 5 Innings Moneyline to win 2 units. Then, it's a 1 unit play on Dylan Beavers to net 1.37 units of profit.
A 0.25 unit play on Coby Mayo's home run prop hauls in just over 1 unit of profit. Then, a final SGP on NRFI/Extra Innings: No lands 1.03 units of profit with a 1 unit stake at plus odds.
📊 Live Rays vs. Orioles odds
The Orioles' moneyline has stayed almost the same since opening at +100, moving down to +101. The run total hasn't moved at all, sitting at 8.5.
66 percent of public money is on the Rays' moneyline, while 55 percent of run line bets are on the Orioles at +1.5. It's a 51-49 public split in favor of Over 8.5 total runs.
📈 Rays vs. Orioles betting trends
| Rays | Statistic | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| 76-53 | W-L record | 63-67 |
| 71-58 | Run line record | 68-62 |
| 59-66-4 | O/U record | 64-61-5 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 3.85 | Team ERA | 4.20 |
| .261 | Team batting avg. | .236 |
| .735 | OPS | .716 |
🚑 Rays vs. Orioles injuries
📺 How to watch Rays vs. Orioles
- Date: Sunday, Aug. 23
- First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Md.)
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
- Rays starter: Nick Martinez (12-4, 3.05 ERA)
- Orioles starter: Shane Baz (4-13,4.02 ERA)
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