MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Sunday, August 23
Catchers aren’t usually a position that get a lot of love from me, but two make my home run predictions today thanks to some red-hot stretches at the plate.
While Alejandro Kirk and Patrick Bailey can be seen as more of my value MLB home run picks, I round out my four-pack of plays with two of the sport’s most consistent home run hitters. I expect Pete Crow-Armstrong and Pete Alonso to go yard again after each has homered earlier in their respective series.
I'm looking to build off yesterday's two home run cashes of +500 and +300 odds that turned in a profitable day.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds August 23
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk to hit a home run (+790 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.98u | All of Kirk's hits against Carlos Rodon have gone for extra bases |
| Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+320 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.8u | Alonso extended his career-long hitting streak to 14 games with a multi-hit game yesterday |
| Patrick Bailey to hit a home run (+450 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.13u | Colorado's pitching staff has allowed 63 runs over an eight-game home losing streak |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+321 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.8u | Crow-Armstrong has five home runs in his last six games |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.71 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Alejandro Kirk (+790)
Alejandro Kirk entered the weekend amid a 10-game hitting streak, during which he batted .410 with three home runs (five total extra-base hits) and 10 RBI. Kirk has never homered off of Carlos Rodon, but all three of his hits in an 11 at-bat sample size have gone for extra bases, resulting in a solid .545 slugging percentage in that split.
New York had allowed nine total runs over a five-game winning streak prior to yesterday. But Carlos Rodon’s 1.481 WHIP against the Blue Jays is his second highest against any opponent, and that should shake his confidence this afternoon.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: The pesky Blue Jays
Rodon has allowed five home runs in 52 2/3 innings against Toronto. But he could be due for regression in that department, as his 4.44 ERA in that split is his highest against any AL East opponent.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+320)
Pete Alonso cashed a +325 home run wager for us on Friday, and I’m going back to the well since he’s showing no signs of slowing down.
Alonso is one of five players in MLB history with at least seven seasons of 30-plus home runs in their first eight full seasons. He is the seventh active player to have at least seven 30-homer seasons and is six home runs away from becoming the 19th active player with 300-plus.
Alonso entered the weekend amid the longest hitting streak of his career (13 games). Over that span, he batted .480 with seven home runs and 14 RBI. He is 2-for-7 with a homer against Nick Martinez, making these great odds for Alonso to take him deep again.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN Unlimited
Home run pick: Patrick Bailey (+450)
Early-season acquisition Patrick Bailey has paid huge dividends for Cleveland of late. Bailey entered the weekend with a team-high four home runs and 14 RBI in 24 games since the All-Star Break.
Bailey may have a low .220 BABIP in that span, but when he connects, he has done so with great power, as one of five Guardians hitters with an ISO of .197 or better. He has also hit a home run on one of every five fly balls, which bodes well going forward with his 37% fly ball rate in that stretch.
Bailey should stay hot against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has allowed a home run in 10 straight starts, and multiple home runs if half of those.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+321)
Pete Crow-Armstrong entered the weekend having hit five home runs in a five-game span. Three of those have been leadoff homers, giving him seven on the season. That is the third-most by a Cubs player in the modern era (since the start of 1900), and one more would tie Rick Monday for second most (he hit eight in 1976).
Before this series began, Crow-Armstrong’s impact on the Cubs lineup since being moved to the leadoff spot on May 23 has been profound. In that span, he led the Majors in OPS (1.073), wRC+ (189), home runs (26), and fWAR (6.9). From an fWAR perspective, he is lapping the field, as the next closest player in that span is Gabriel Moreno (3.6).
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Alejandro Kirk to hit a home run (+625)
- Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+320)
- Patrick Bailey to hit a home run (+450)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+290)
Best odds: +65215 via bet365 (0.1u -> 65.2u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 239-389-1 | +48.14 units ✅ | +12.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 147-317 | +35.49 units ✅ | +15.8% ✅ |
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