MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Monday, Aug. 24)
We beat the closing line on our MLB home run picks last time out, but unfortunately, they went 0-for-3. My home run predictions today look to bounce back with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bryce Harper, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Crow-Armstrong and Harper have favorable pitching matchups, while Tatis has been among the hottest sluggers in MLB.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 24
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong to homer (+343 via DraftKings) | 0.58u β 2u | Kelly throws primarily fastballs and offspeed pitches to LHH. Crow-Armstrong is slugging .562 and .600 against those pitches, respectively. |
| Bryce Harper to homer (+460 via FanDuel) | 0.43u β 2u | Harper is slugging .574 against fastballs, Gilbert's go-to pitch vs. LHH. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. to homer (+468 via DraftKings) | 0.43u β 2u | Tatis has homered 9 times across 20 games in August. |
Total wagered: 1.44 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+343)
Not only has Crow-Armstrong homered six times across his last seven games, but he has a pitching matchup he should be able to take advantage of today.
Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly throws 50.7% fastballs and 33% offspeed pitches to left-handed hitters. Crow-Armstrong is slugging .562 and .600 against those pitches, respectively.
He's hit two or more home runs in each of his last two series, so he has a strong chance of going yard again. DraftKings' +343 odds for Crow-Armstrong to homer are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
💵 SBR Edge: Fading "Barrel Kelly"
Kelly ranks in the second percentile in barrel percentage (12.6%), while Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 81st percentile (12.4%).
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+460)
Harper homered Saturday against the Cardinals, ending an 11-game home run drought. He followed that performance with two doubles on Sunday, so I think it's safe to say he's seeing the ball well right now.
His pitching matchup today is Mariners starter Logan Gilbert, who throws 46.4% fastballs to left-handed hitters (his most-used pitch in that split). Luckily for Harper, he's slugging .574 against fastballs, so his payout should be lower on this prop.
Harper to homer (+460) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+468)
It's hard not to look at Padres box scores lately and go, "ahhh, why didn't I bet Tatis to homer?"
He's among the hottest hitters in MLB this month, hitting nine home runs in August, including four across his last five games. He's slashing .316/.391/.737 in the month and is coming off a two-homer performance against the Twins on Sunday.
Tatis' season-long stats may not look great - he didn't hit his first home run until May 30 - but he's definitely making up for it in August. Tatis to homer (+468) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ More MLB props today
Looking for more? Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today and Mike Spector's Rays vs. Tigers prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Crow-Armstrong to homer
- Bryce Harper to homer
- Fernando Tatis Jr. to homer
Best odds: +13309 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-51-4 | -10.68 units β | -16.5% β |
| Player props | 8-39-3 | -8.09 units β | -24.6% β |
| Game props | 7-5 | -0.55 units β | -2.5% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units β | -100% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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