Giants vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, Aug. 22

After San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers homered in his return to Fenway Park for the first time as a visiting player since being traded by the Boston Red Sox, he is the focus of one of my player prop wagers. My Giants vs. Red Sox prediction expects a slugfest, and that means Willson Contreras is a big part of my MLB picks.

The starting pitching matchup is between Blade Tidwell and Patrick Sandoval, and first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). The Red Sox are -210 betting favorites.

⚾ Giants vs. Red Sox picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Giants vs. Red Sox?

Boston hasn’t played well since a historic five-week stretch, but I trust it more than a San Francisco squad that is playing out the string for the last month of the season.

Score prediction: Red Sox 6, Giants 5

💰 Giants vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet

Over 8 (-113)

Instead of speculating whether the Red Sox are the right side after a recent 5-8 stretch, I expect each offense to do enough to cash the Over.

Patrick Sandoval is unbeaten in three home starts in a Red Sox uniform while pitching to a 3.68 ERA. But that is due for regression with a .333 OBA, and he faces a Giants lineup that ranks in the top 10 in BABIP against southpaws. Meanwhile, in three games since being stretched out as a starting pitcher, the Giants have allowed eight runs per game in Blade Tidwell’s three starts.

🔥 Best Giants vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (+150)

Rafael Devers homered in his first game back at Fenway Park yesterday after being traded from the Red Sox. But since he has struggled in lefty-lefty matchups, we’re getting great value on the total bases prop for one of San Francisco’s most feared sluggers.

Devers is slashing .187/.249/.301 against left-handed pitching, and his OPS is 374 points lower in that split than against righties. He also 57 extra-base hits this year, but less than 20% of those have come against southpaws. However, Sandoval has reverse splits with a 1.324 OPS allowed to left-handed batters, and a much more manageable .730 OPS to righties.

Devers is 2-for-5 in a small sample size against Sandoval, and he has as good of a chance to produce an extra-base hit as he does a multi-hit day.

💣 Giants vs. Red Sox home run prediction

Willson Contreras to hit a home run (+440)

Willson Contreras is a perfect 3-for-3 with a home run in a small sample size against Blade Tidwell.

Tidwell has allowed just two home runs in 27 innings this season. But he has been pushed more of late with pitch counts of 96-plus in two of three starts, and that should mean good things in the middle innings for Red Sox hitters. Opposing batters in their third plate appearance in a game against Tidwell are batting .400 with a .971 OPS, and a .444 average on balls put in play.

Contreras entered yesterday ranked in the top 10 in BABIP since July 1, and that has also resulted in the third-highest OPS of all MLB hitters in that span.  

🚀 Giants vs. Red Sox same-game parlay

If the Over is to cash in this Giants-Red Sox tilt, each team's biggest sluggers will likely have to produce. Devers has gone Over this projected total in five of the last seven games, while Contreras drove in a run in four straight, while homering yesterday. Thus, I am comfortable ignoring Devers' poor lefty-lefty splits, since five of his last six hits have gone for extra bases.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Giants vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy

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I have no faith in any Giants pitcher besides Logan Webb (who started yesterday), especially after Robbie Ray was traded. While I toyed with the idea of laying the 1.5 runs with the Red Sox, San Francisco's solid offensive numbers against southpaws titled my opinion towards the Over as the best bet.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Over 1.5 on Devers' hits/runs/RBI prop considering it has cashed it six of seven games. But seemingly every hit Devers collects of late is an extra-base hit, so I viewed his total bases prop as the safer bet.

📊 Live Giants vs. Red Sox odds

There is a wide 20-cent gap between Boston's shortest -200 moneyline odds (carrying a 66.67% implied probability) and the -220 odds on the high end of the market at BetMGM. There hasn't been much movement yet despite San Francisco attracting 40% of the moneyline wagers. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that not much of that betting support to this point has been sharp action.

The total is at 8 runs at all the top sports betting sites except for bet365, which is the only one at 8.5. Other sportsbooks like BetMGM had opened at 8.5 before ticking down to 8. That's a case of reverse line movement, as 60% of the early wagers have backed the Over.

📈 Giants vs. Red Sox betting trends

🚑 Giants vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Giants vs. Red Sox

• Date: Saturday, August 22
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Giants starter: Blade Tidwell (0-0, 4.33 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Patrick Sandoval (1-2, 4.76 ERA)