MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Saturday, Aug. 22
Ballpark factors like the altitude at Coors Field and proven sluggers who are atop statistical leaderboards (like AL home run leader Yordan Alvarez) factor into my home run predictions today.
Yordan Alvarez and Mickey Moniak are two left-handed batters playing at home in mouth-watering matchups. But I also add two NL East sluggers (Heriberto Hernandez and Francisco Lindor) to my MLB home run picks, as each has had success in a small sample size against today’s opposing starting pitcher.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds August 22
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+310 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.78u | Alvarez remains a solid Triple Crown threat despite a recent cold spell |
| Heriberto Hernandez to hit a home run (+500 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.25u | The Nationals have had one of MLB's worst pitching staffs while playing to the second worst record in the league of late |
| Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+400 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1u | Lindor has been a thorn in the Nationals side since joining the Mets |
| Mickey Moniak to hit a home run (+300 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.75u | Tanner Bibee has allowed five home runs in his last three starts |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.78 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+310)
Yordan Alvarez remains a viable Triple Crown threat despite recent struggles at the plate. Entering yesterday’s series opener, he was batting .216 with three extra-base hits (one home run), two RBIs, and eight strikeouts in his last 11 games.
Alvarez should regain his MVP form against an Athletics pitching staff that ranks 29th in starting pitching ERA and dead last in bullpen ERA and HR/9 rate (1.57). In the series opener, he was 2-for-3 with two doubles and two RBIs.
He is 1-for-2 with a home run against Jacob Lopez, and came into this series with a 1.293 OPS in 15 at-bats against the division rival this season.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Getting the best of the Athletics
Yordan Alvarez has hit 23 career home runs against the Athletics, his second most against any opponent. He has hit 27 home runs against the Rangers, but in five more games.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Heriberto Hernandez (+500)
Washington struggled to a 6-15 record (second-worst in MLB) since July 29 entering yesterday’s series opener. Poor pitching was a big reason for the inconsistent play, as the Nationals pitching staff ranked 23rd in ERA, and 27th in xERA and FIP in that stretch.
Jake Irvin has allowed at least one home run in seven of his last eight starts. He’s one of three Nationals starting pitchers with a HR/9 rate of 1.51 or worse. Of those starting pitchers, he has the second-lowest ground ball rate (36.8%).
Heriberto Hernandez entered yesterday as one of 47 MLB hitters who had recorded at least one hit in 80% of their last 10 games. He has also homered in three of the last four series.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
Home run pick: Francisco Lindor (+400)
No player with at least 10 at-bats against today’s opposing starting pitcher has a higher OPS than Francisco Lindor has against Luis Castillo. In 15 career at-bats, Lindor has eight hits, with five of those going for extra bases, including two home runs. That has resulted in an eye-popping 1.667 OPS, and it’s clear Lindor sees the ball well out of Castillo’s hand, with just one strikeout in that split.
Castillo’s numbers have regressed the last several years, with this year being on pace for his lowest strikeout rate and highest ERA and xERA of his career. Castillo ranks in the 14th percentile in barrels and has allowed career-worsts in pull air percentage in each of the last three seasons.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Mickey Moniak (+300)
Rockies slugger Mickey Moniak has used the Coors Field altitude to his advantage, ranking second among all MLB sluggers in average distance of home runs hit.
Moniak is one of three current Rockies that has homered in their career off of Guardians righty Tanner Bibee. Of the eight pitchers who have thrown 150-plus innings this season, Bibee’s 1.5 HR/9 rate is the worst, and his ground ball rate is third-worst.
That doesn’t play well at hitter-friendly Coors Field, especially against Moniak, who has hit 16 of his 20 home runs at home this season. Seventeen of those 20 have come against right-handed pitchers, a split where Moniak has a .569 slugging percentage.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+310)
- Heriberto Hernandez to hit a home run (+500)
- Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+400)
- Mickey Moniak to hit a home run (+300)
Best odds: +49100 via bet365 (0.1u -> 49.1u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 237-384-1 | +48.89 units ✅ | +12.6% ✅ |
| Player props | 145-313 | +35.24 units ✅ | +15.9% ✅ |
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