Ole Miss vs. Alabama Free College Football Picks for Week 5

Lane Kiffin returns to Alabama as his Rebels look to upset Alabama. Will they at least cover the spread?

The top sportsbooks have released their college football odds for Saturday's contest between Ole Miss and Alabama.

Both teams are currently undefeated: Ole Miss is 3-0 while Alabama is 4-0. The 12th-ranked Rebels are 14.5-point underdogs against the number one Crimson Tide.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this game.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson 

Saturday, October 02, 2021 - 03:30 PM EDT at Bryant-Denny Stadium

Betting Strategy 

Alabama's most difficult game came against Florida: the Gators were 14-point home underdogs, yet lost by only two points to Alabama. I find this game against Florida very important to consider for Saturday's upcoming game because of the way that Florida made the game against the Crimson Tide so close. In that game, Florida ran fifteen more times than it passed and accrued 245 rushing yards.

https://youtu.be/PwVoD9giej4

Ole Miss is interesting because it ranks very close to the Gators in run play percentage. The Gators run with the 28th-highest frequency, Ole Miss with the 26th-highest. However, just because a team likes to run the ball, doesn't mean that it will do so well.

Therefore, I want to look at the kind of things that Florida was able to do against Alabama and at the sort of stuff that the Rebels like to run on offense in order to answer the following question: Can Ole Miss run on Alabama with the same level of success that Florida did in their upset bid?

Jameson Williams #1 of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

What Florida Did Against Alabama 

Video footage reveals that Florida's play-calling and scheming, led by well-reputed genius Dan Mullen, deserves a lot of credit for its offensive success against the Tide. Something that Mullen loves to do, and does well, creates numerical advantages through movement.

He'll spread out the defense and then have a pass-catcher run a delayed route where he waits a bit before running his route. In the game against the Tide, this delay would create a two-on-one advantage against the defense, forcing the defensive back to either attack this extra pass-catcher and leave a deeper pass open or to stay back and allow the short pass attempt to remain open.

Head coach Dan Mullen of the Florida Gators. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

Mullen also used motion to create a numbers advantage. For example, with ten minutes left in the first quarter and just over twelve minutes left in the third, he sent a man in motion to block safety on a specific side of the field in order to allow for more running room.

Something else that Mullen likes to do a lot is to stack wide receivers on one side and isolate a wide receiver on the other side in order to create a ton of space on that side. He'll then have his running back go 1 v. 1 against the opposing linebacker.

https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/1442205923041325058?s=20

We also saw a lot of options, taking advantage of Emory Jones' mobility. In sum, Ole Miss, to replicate Florida's success, will want to have creative play-calling, comfort sending guys in motion when it makes sense to do so, a mobile quarterback, and versatile pass-catchers. Keep these needs in mind for your sports betting.

Ole Miss vs. Alabama Defense 

My argument is that Ole Miss has what Florida has and more and can therefore even surpass the level of success that the Gators obtained against the Tide. Video footage shows that the Rebels like to do some options, which makes sense because quarterback Matt Corral is a very able runner --  he has 158 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC so far this season.

Looking at the beginning of the Tulane and Louisville games, the Rebel offense likes to either run and then have the quarterback pretend like he still has the ball to throw or to execute a play-action.

There seems to be a lot more repetition in the Rebel play-calling than there is in Florida's. But this is ok because the Rebel offensive play-calling makes up for being easier for the defense to recognize by playing faster.

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1438540684026281985?s=20

At their tempo --  they rank fourth nationally in plays per game -- they force defenses to recognize what they're doing at a faster rate. This is hard for defenses to do, especially when the faster tempo also makes them more fatigued and keeps them in the same personnel.

The Rebels will also aptly send guys in motion, like when they did so with over thirteen minutes left in the first quarter against Louisville in order to fake a hand-off.

Head coach Lane Kiffin of the Mississippi Rebels. Frederick Breedon/Getty Images/AFP

We saw in the Bama vs. Florida game that Tide safeties were often rendered powerless when the Gators had a guy in motion. Lane Kiffin's offenses are well-known for their explosiveness as Kiffin is justly regarded as a genius innovator, which is why he left Alabama for head coaching jobs in the first place. Keep Kiffin in mind for your best bets.

With pass-catchers stepping up into bigger roles to gain more chemistry with Corral and with a versatile group of running backs that outcompetes all but the top Rebel wide receivers for receiving yardage, Ole Miss has the talent to make explosive plays against a vulnerable Bama defense. Plus, the Rebels have returned a veteran offensive line this year to protect Corral. Corral is the team's biggest asset, a guy who can reliably make passes, that Florida lacked in the passing game.

Whereas Emory Jones has thrown more picks than interceptions and often fails to make routine throws, Corral has nine touchdowns to zero interceptions. Know for your NCAAF Picks that Corral's tremendously superior passing ability gives the Rebel offense an edge that Florida lacked with the frequently incompetent Jones passing the ball and trying to make correct decisions.

Rebel Defense 

I know that I haven't talked about Ole Miss' defense. But this is a team that regularly scores 40+ in a game, so asking Alabama to cover a two-touchdown spread despite having to deal with this powerful Rebel offense already seems like a tall task.

But the massive improvement in Ole Miss' defense is worth observing. While people talk about Ole Miss missing its top pass-catchers from last year, the same thing can be said about Alabama's, plus the Tide break in a new young quarterback, Bryce Young. As the game flow against Florida showed, Young can be inconsistent and his offense can go long stretches without any productivity.

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1441963047589793796?s=20

The Rebels have improved about 40 spots in stats like opposing passer rating compared to last year. They locked down Louisville's Malik Cunningham especially before the game was finally out of reach -- it was 36-10 in the fourth quarter. In terms of passer rating, his worst game came against the Rebels despite garbage time help.

For the above reasons, take the generous amount of points being offered by the sports betting site.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.