College Football ATS Picks Week 7: Predictions Against the Spread

For the second straight week, my college football ATS picks went 5-2, including two underdog plays (South Carolina +12.5 and Coastal Carolina +3.5) that won outright.

The SEC is a big focal point of my college football predictions for Week 7, including why No. 7 Texas and No. 22 LSU should cover in bounceback spots as big home favorites over Florida and No. 16 Mississippi State, respectively. All three of my highlighted ATS plays kick off at noon ET on Saturday, so be sure to get your wagers in early.

College football picks against the spread: Week 7

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 7 based on the latest college football odds.

Best college football ATS picks: Week 7

Texas -10.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Florida

If only Texas’ offensive line was as good in pass protection in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma as it was over the first three, the Longhorns likely could have ridden a stout defense to a low-scoring victory over the Sooners. 

Over the first three quarters, Arch Manning faced seven pressures and was 3-for-4 for 50 yards with a 1-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But in the fourth quarter alone, Manning completed only 2-for-5 passes for 25 yards and threw 2 interceptions for 0 touchdowns while facing six pressures.

Texas entered last week having allowed touchdowns on an FBS-best three of opponents’ 11 red zone opportunities. I expect the Longhorns to make Florida’s offense one-dimensional, just like when Missouri held running back Jadan Baugh to 13 rushing yards, the third-fewest in his career, in a dominant 45-17 victory.

Kansas +4.5 (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Kansas State

This line has steamed down from as high as Kansas +6.5 earlier in the week, and still remains too high (I would play it down to +3.5) in a rivalry game of this magnitude.

The Jayhawks are one of the rare underdogs with trench advantages on both sides of the ball. Kansas ranks fifth in stuff rate (10.5%), while Kansas State ranks 29th (14.1%). In stuff rate allowed, the Jayhawks also rank fifth among FBS teams, while the Wildcats rank 42nd. 

Jayhawks quarterback Isaiah Marshall ranks third in Pass EPA (and had six big-time throws against a stout Utah defense, per PFF), which is impressive given Kansas's 36th-ranked strength of schedule. Thus, the Jayhawks shouldn’t be this big of an underdog to a Wildcats team that ranks outside the top 85 in PFF coverage grading despite playing the 95th-ranked strength of schedule.

LSU -13.5 (-120 via BetMGM) vs. Mississippi State

LSU allowed 35 points in a road loss at Kentucky last week. But eight of those came in overtime, and the Tigers made outstanding adjustments in the second half to hold Kentucky without a touchdown.

Mississippi State has an advantage coming off a bye, but it likely needed all of those two weeks to come up with some sort of plan for pass protection. Alabama lived in the Bulldogs backfield with six sacks and 21 total pressures, and Kamario Taylor threw two interceptions when under duress.

Taylor became the first quarterback in team history with three or more passing touchdowns in four straight games. But LSU should limit his passing efficiency with two of PFF’s top three players in terms of individual coverage grade in all of FBS. 

This is also an LSU offense that two weeks ago totaled 735 yards against McNeese, its second-highest total in program history.