USC vs. Penn State Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
No. 19 USC is the only ranked team left on Penn State’s schedule, though the Nittany Lions haven’t taken advantage of a soft conference schedule with back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern. But my USC vs. Penn State prediction explains why the Nittany Lions are not as mediocre as their 3-2 record suggests, and should take advantage of a weary Trojans team given how many built-in advantages they have.
This Big Ten clash kicks off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET, airing on NBC. Penn State is a 1.5-point betting favorite.
USC vs. Penn State picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 6 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Penn State -1.5 (-106 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 0.94 units |
| O/U: Under 54.5 (-104 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 0.96 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.9 units
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USC vs. Penn State prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Penn State -1.5 (-106 via FanDuel)
This line jumped the fence from USC as a small 1.5-point favorite to Penn State laying the 1.5 points, and I couldn’t agree more with the line movement.
There are several factors working against the Trojans in this matchup, starting with the fact that they are traveling to the Eastern Standard Time Zone for the second time in four weeks. USC has not been a great fit in the conference given the demanding Big Ten travel, as it has lost four of its six league games where it has had to travel two or more time zones.
USC could be a weary bunch as it is the only team other than Eastern Michigan to have played in Week 0 and be playing its seven consecutive game without a bye week this week. In addition, the Trojans just had two physical games against old Pac-12 rivals (Oregon and Washington) prior to making this East Coast trip, and they trailed by double digits in the second half at some point in each game.
The story is usually the same when evaluating the Trojans’ chances, as one must decide if their high-powered offense can mask and overcome their defensive deficiencies. But Penn State ranks fifth in adjusted defensive EPA, so the Trojans offense should face more bumps in the road than they’re used to.
📡 SBR Edge: A poor ATS record
USC is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games and it's fair to wonder if looking ahead to next week's bye week will have an effect on this matchup.
The D'Anton Lynn factor
Prior to D’Anton Lynn joining Matt Campbell’s Penn State staff as defensive coordinator, he spent the last two seasons under Lincoln Riley in the same role at USC. His knowledge of the Trojans’ playbook and play-calling tendencies should loom large in this matchup. But the Nittany Lions were always built to slow down talented Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava, as their defense ranks third in EPA/Pass.
Lastly, Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht has proven himself in big games. Entering this season, Becht was 4-2 in his last six starts against AP-ranked teams. In that span, he completed 63% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt, with a 17-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Score prediction: Penn State 28, USC 24
Live USC vs. Penn State odds
USC vs. Penn State opening odds
- Moneyline: USC -120 | Penn State +100
- Spread: USC -2 (-108) | Penn State +2 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-105) | Under 55.5 (-115)
How to watch USC vs. Penn State: Week 6
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
