Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
For just the second time in the more than 130-year-old rivalry between No. 2 Georgia and No. 6 Alabama, the two SEC rivals meet in the regular season with 5-0 records or better. Instead of my best bet being on either side of the point spread, my Georgia vs. Alabama prediction makes the contrarian play on the Under in a game where both teams have done historic things offensively to this point.
Georgia has had the last laugh recently in SEC Championship and National Championship Game matchups, but the Crimson Tide have won five straight regular season games in this rivalry.
Kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa is set for 7:30 p.m. ET tonight, airing on ABC. Alabama is a 1.5-point betting favorite.
Georgia vs. Alabama picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 6 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Georgia +1.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.93 units |
| O/U: First Half Under 26.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.95 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.88 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Georgia vs. Alabama prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
First Half Under 26.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Alabama’s 45+ points in five straight games is the second-longest streak in program history, and a sixth in this matchup would match its streak set in 2018. In addition, the Crimson Tide’s 56 points against then-No. 16 Mississippi State were the third most scored against an AP-ranked team in the AP Poll era.
On the other side, Georgia’s 219 points through their first four games were its most since 1910 (237), and it has averaged an FBS-high 51.4 points per game. So what could go wrong backing the Under in a game pitting the two-highest scoring offense in FBS?
For starters, Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell is being hit too much, taking more than two sacks per game on average. And the Crimson Tide have relied too much on his arm at times, as they have below average run blocking grades while Daniel Hill has averaged fewer than five yards per carry.
Weather is expected to have a huge impact on this game, as Hurricane Isaias heads towards Tuscaloosa. The storm has the potential to bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and the possibility of severe weather to the area, which is a big reason the full-game total has plummeted from an opening number of 56.5 down to 51.5. I would play this first half Under down to 24.5.
📡 SBR Edge: Trust in Alabama's defense
The Crimson Tide defense ranks in the top 20 in success rate and has held three of the four Power 4 opponents they've faced to 23 or fewer points. Meanwhile, none of Georgia's five opponents have scored more than 20.
Georgia's defensive metrics are more impressive when excluding garbage time
Georgia has allowed 10 total touchdowns, with five of those coming late in fourth quarters after the game was already decided. By comparison, the Bulldogs have allowed just three first-half touchdowns in five games and are surrendering less than a field goal’s worth of points whenever opponents start a new set of downs within Georgia’s 40-yard line.
My biggest reason for making the first half Under my best bet as opposed to the full game total is that Georgia’s offense ranks 116th in plays run per game. That deliberate pace should continue for the first 30 minutes as the two teams feel each other out, but that methodical pace would also go out the window in the second half if Russell and the Crimson Tide build a lead.
Score prediction: Georgia 21, Alabama 20
Live Georgia vs. Alabama odds
Georgia vs. Alabama opening odds
- Moneyline: Georgia -118 | Alabama -102
- Spread: Georgia -1.5 (-108) | Alabama +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (-112) | Under 56.5 (-105)
How to watch Georgia vs. Alabama: Week 6
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: WatchESPN
