LSU vs. Kentucky Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
No. 10 LSU is one of three ranked SEC teams playing as a road favorite this weekend when it faces Kentucky, but my LSU vs. Kentucky prediction believes in the Wildcats’ ability to keep this game competitive.
LSU has enjoyed two easy victories over Texas A&M and McNeese by a combined 78 points since its only loss to Ole Miss, but I believe in Kentucky head coach Will Stein’s ability to keep this close.
Kickoff from Kroger Field in Lexington is set for 7 p.m. ET tonight, airing on ESPN. LSU is an 8.5-point betting favorite.
LSU vs. Kentucky picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 6 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Kentucky +8.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.93 units |
| O/U: Under 52.5 (-118 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 0.85 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.78 units
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LSU vs. Kentucky prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Kentucky +8.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
LSU is 40-17-1 all-time against Kentucky, but is also a less inspiring 16-12 in games played in Lexington. Meanwhile, the Wildcats appear headed in the right direction under Will Stein, who is the first coach to win four of his first five games at Kentucky since Bear Bryant in 1946.
Kentucky recorded its first win as a ranked team last week since 2022, and showed great resolve with the largest road comeback win in program history (it trailed South Carolina 17-0 in the second quarter).
It’s not just how the Wildcats came back last week that has me backing them this week; it’s how they have seemingly made adjustments all season. Kentucky’s halftime adjustments have resulted in a touchdown on its opening drive of the second half in four of five games, including three straight. Those haven’t been short possessions either, as each score has come off drives of 75+ yards.
The line has moved in Kentucky’s favor since opening at +9.5, but this is a play on the home ‘dogs at anything at +8.5 or higher.
📡 SBR Edge: Defense turns the tide as well
In addition to Kentucky's second half adjustments on offense, it has forced a punt on opponents' first possession of the second half in all five games.
Can Leavitt expose Kentucky's run defense?
LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt had the third-highest off-target rate (12%) among SEC quarterbacks through three games. Lately, he has been nursing a hamstring injury, which has hampered his dual-threat ability and chances to be most effective. In fact, earlier this year, Leavitt became the third LSU player in the last 30 seasons to record at least 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a game.
If Leavitt’s running ability is compromised, that plays into Kentucky’s defensive strength, which ranks 66th in pass success rate and 96th in rush success rate. But overall, the Wildcats' defense is 13th in adjusted EPA/Play and should perform well enough at home to help the team stay within this big number.
Score prediction: LSU 27, Kentucky 21
Live LSU vs. Kentucky odds
LSU vs. Kentucky opening odds
- Moneyline: LSU -375 | Kentucky +300
- Spread: LSU -10 (-105) | Kentucky +10 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-102) | Under 55.5 (-118)
How to watch LSU vs. Kentucky: Week 6
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Kroger Field (Lexington, Ky.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: WatchESPN
