Notre Dame vs. BYU Prediction: Week 7 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
College Gameday is in Provo for this huge non-conference matchup between No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 8 BYU. My Notre Dame vs. BYU prediction expects the Fighting Irish to cover, but my best bet is the Under on the Cougars’ team total, given the Fighting Irish’s dominant defensive metrics.
Notre Dame is looking for its first true road win against an AP top-10 team since beating Oklahoma 14 years ago, while BYU hasn’t beaten a top-2 team since 1990.
Kickoff from LaVell Edwards Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday (ABC). Notre Dame is a 10.5-point betting favorite.
Notre Dame vs. BYU picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 7 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Notre Dame -10.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
| O/U: BYU team total Under 17.5 (-130 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.77 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.68 units
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Notre Dame vs. BYU prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
BYU team total Under 17.5 (-130 via BetMGM)
Without running back LJ Martin, who leads the team with 344 rushing yards and a 7.8 yards-per-carry average, it is hard to see how BYU will score consistently against Notre Dame if quarterback Bear Bachmeier has to shoulder the load in the running game.
While BYU is 17th in rush offense, Notre Dame leads the country in total defense (214.2 yards per game allowed) and run defense (58.3 yards per game allowed). If the Cougars are forced to be one-dimensional, that doesn’t bode well, considering they’re 88th in passing and have no single pass-catcher on the roster with 20 receptions or 400 receiving yards.
Notre Dame has a +13 turnover margin largely because its defense ranks in the top three in Havoc rate and is getting healthy at the right time, with All-American cornerback Leonard Moore back to take away BYU’s top receiving threat.
One can get appealing +105 odds at an Under of 16.5 at DraftKings. But I'm more comfortable laying the juice and backing the Under of 17.5 since it avoids the key number of 17.
📡 SBR Edge: Bucking a team total trend
While BYU has cashed its team total Over in five of its last seven home games (+2.7 units/33% ROI), I'm looking past that trend as the Under is 4-0 in its last four home games against teams with a winning road record.
Notre Dame's defensive advantages
The Fighting Irish defense ranks second in Scoring Position Drives (drives that scored or reached their 40-yard line), while BYU’s offense ranks 55th. Notre Dame also has a +41 edge in 3-and-out possessions, ranking 17th defensively while BYU is 58th in possessions that ended in a three-and-out.
Lastly, Notre Dame has a significant edge in available yards and explosive play rate, ranking fourth defensively in each metric while BYU’s offense ranks 43rd and 35th, respectively.
Score prediction: Notre Dame 31, BYU 13
Live Notre Dame vs. BYU odds
Notre Dame vs. BYU opening odds
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -450 | BYU +350
- Spread: Notre Dame -11 (-110) | BYU +11 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-112) | Under 47.5 (-105)
How to watch Notre Dame vs. BYU: Week 7
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 17
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo, Utah)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
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