Premier League Best Bets Matchweek 7: EPL Expert Picks & Predictions

It's Matchweek 7 for the Premier League and I've broken down the entire slate to come up with plays from Saturday-Monday as I make my Premier League best bets.

I've lined up another big performance from Brighton as they look to build on early-season momentum, a player prop I think is mispriced, a big-favorite that should play keepaway, and more.

Premier League best bets: Matchweek 7

Here are my Premier League predictions for Matchweek 7 as part of our soccer picks this week.

Best Premier League bet: Brighton Over 16.5 shots (-125)

Brighton should stretch Palace's shape on Sunday, with Maxime De Cuyper and Kadioglu providing width and forcing Palace's wing-backs to choose between trying to engage and protecting the back line. Once the visitors are stretched, Yasin Ayari will attack the spaces opened up, creating plenty of shooting opportunities around the penalty area. Brighton's league-leading press keeps them having the bulk of possession, and short of a sizable lead threatening that type of play, they should keep the pressure on. 

The Seagulls have cleared this line in all of their home games, lodging 21, 20, and 17 shots in Premier League games at the Amex. We're not looking for unusual production here. 

I expect Leeds to put up a stern fight, but I’m banking on Arsenal winning 2-0.

More Premier League Matchweek 7 predictions

Everton vs. Chelsea pick: Thierno Barry Over 2.5 shots (+120)

The statistical backing here is simple: Barry has recorded three, four, give, three, and five shots across his last five Premier League games. Rather than looking to him to finish, or even get shots on target, we're going to look for that kind of consistency against a very mid-table Chelsea defense. I'm backing Everton to shoot plenty, and for him to account for 27-30% of those attempts. 

By attacking the spaces behind Chelsea's wandering wing-backs, Grealish and Johnson's runs will supply Barry centrally. Chelsea's three center-backs might make clean chances hard to come by, but Barry will be positioned to receive crosses and attack second balls, and we're getting attractive plus-money odds here. 

I actually have another quarter-unit on his Over 3.5 (+300) line - if Everton ends up chasing, which is entirely possible against an attack-minded Chelsea squad, that's not beyond the pale.

Manchester City vs. Ipswich pick: Manchester City Under 21.5 shots (-125)

This shouldn't be a challenging match for City, who haven't looked like their old selves since the international break and will be looking to get back on track. But even so, reaching 22 shots would be a major increase over their 13.83-shot average in domestic play. 

City will control possession after taking a comfortable lead, with Cherki and Fernandez recycling possession and looking to get Haaland into promising areas rather than forcing shots through defenders. With another European fixture fast approaching, a solid lead will give Maresca incentive to just run things out with patient circulation.

Feeling lucky? Under 17.5 (+250) is worth a quarter-unit too, but doesn't have as much give; 22 shots would be a season-high, 18 would not.

Tottenham vs. Coventry pick: Coventry Over 9.5 shots (-125)

Some Monday action to close things out, picking on a Tottenham side that has been looking better lately but still should give up chances. Coventry have passed this line in four of their six Premier League games, and landed directly on nine shots last time out. In that game, they scored four times, led for the sixth minute, and never had to chase. As much as it pains me to say it as a fan of another north London team, that won't be the case on Monday vs. the Spurs.

A Tottenham lead should force Coventry to commit more players forward, and a Tottenham defense that has allowed over 14 shots per game will be suspectable to Mason-Clark and Thomas-Asante finding space down the channels. Coventry doesn't need sustained possession to reach this very reasonable line to close out the week.