College Football Best Bets for Week 7: Expert Picks & Predictions

My college football best bets for Week 7 look to build off the momentum of both plays on Unders of games with a projected total in the mid-40s, neither of which totaled more than 38 points.

My top four plays in our college football Week 7 predictions come from Power 4 games. I start with a noon kickoff in what should be a spirited battle between No. 25 Northwestern and Michigan State, as Spartans head coach Pat Fitzgerald faces his former team. I also explain why I expect Nebraska to keep it close against their former quarterback, Dylan Raiola, in the late-game Saturday slate.

College football best bets & expert picks: Week 7

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 7 based on the latest college football odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: +3.68 units

Best college football bets this week

Northwestern -5.5 first half spread (-110 via DraftKings)

Pat Fitzgerald will likely have his team fired up to face a Northwestern program that he coached from 2006-23, and where he starred at linebacker in the mid 1990s. But the Wildcats have too many advantages over the Spartans, and Michigan State’s offense didn’t come to life last week until the second half, forcing overtime after trailing 20-7 at halftime.

Northwestern’s offense ranks 24th in Rush EPA/Play, while the Spartans' defense ranks 90th in that same metric. Michigan State also ranks in the bottom 15 in quality drives allowed. That is an issue when preparing to defend Aidan Chiles, who had a 90.5 overall PFF offensive grade and a 92.8 PFF passing grade (third-highest in the country) last week.

Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech Over 57.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

Virginia Tech ranks third in the ACC in scoring and sixth in total offense, while Georgia Tech ranks 12th or worse in those categories. Still, neither defense should offer much resistance in what should turn into a track meet.

The Hokies rank 65th in EPA/Pass allowed, while the Yellow Jackets are outside the top 110 in that same metric. I expect Georgia Tech to target Virginia Tech's pass defense early and often, as the Hokies have allowed a stingy 86.5 rushing yards per game to opposing tailbacks. The same goes for the Hokies’ offensive strategy, as they rank in the top nine nationally in passing offense and completion percentage.

This line has been steamed up from an opening number of 55.5, and I would play it up to 58.5.

Texas Tech -14.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

Arizona State followed up an embarrassing 55-19 home loss to Baylor with an uninspiring non-cover as three-touchdown favorites in an 18-point win over Hawaii. In the only other game Arizona State played against a then-AP top-10 team, it allowed 48 points in a road loss at Texas A&M. 

The Sun Devils should struggle to score against a Texas Tech team whose defense ranks in the top 10 in Defensive Finishing Drives and Quality Drives allowed. The Red Raiders should also be able to bleed the clock late, facing an Arizona State defense that ranks 120th in Stuff Rate. 

Texas Tech is also 5-2 ATS off a bye since 2023, and has covered the spread in an astounding 80% of conference games (16-4-1 ATS) over the last three seasons.

Nebraska +7.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Nebraska is for real after starting 5-0 for the first time since 2016, and owning its best point differential (plus-147) through five games since 1996. The Cornhuskers had a golden opportunity to snap their 30-game losing streak against ranked opponents in last week’s 20-17 home loss to Indiana, but I walked away from that loss encouraged by Anthony Colandrea and the Nebraska offense.

Oregon had difficulty defending UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava’s dual-threat ability prior to his leg injury. That doesn’t bode well for its chances of success against Colandrea, who entered Week 6 17-for-26 for 246 yards and a 4-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio on throws outside the pocket.

For as well as Ducks quarterback Dylan Raiola played in relief of the injured Dante Moore against USC, he was awful last week. Raiola’s minus-1.20 EPA/Dropback was the worst single-game quarterback performance in that metric since 2024.