Rocket Richard Trophy Odds 2023: Can Anyone Catch McDavid?
Connor McDavid raced out to an early lead and has continued to pull away from the field in the battle for the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league's top goal scorer. Here is a look at the Rocket Richard picture via the best NHL odds.
McDavid starting scoring early this season and quickly emerged as the favorite, after entering with odds ranging from the third- to fifth-shortest among our best sportsbooks.
We could see a handful of players reach the 50-goal plateau – but with a whopping 10-goal advantage over runner-up David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins, this award is McDavid's to lose. The only way the Oilers mega-star get passed is if he suffers an injury.
To that end, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and PointsBet have all taken down their Rocket Richard Trophy odds, which indicates just how lopsided the market has become.
Here are updated odds and predictions for the Rocket Richard Trophy.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars, and Barstool Sportsbook.
2023 Rocket Richard Trophy odds
| Player | DraftKings | Caesars | Barstool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | -8000 ❄️ | -5000 | -5000 |
| David Pastrnak | +3500 🔥 | +3000 | +2500 ❄️ |
| Tage Thompson | +6500 🔥 | +500 ❄️ | +4000 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +7500 🔥 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Mikko Rantanen | +7500 | +7500 | +6500 ❄️ |
| Jason Robertson | +15000 🔥 | +9000 ❄️ | +12500 |
| Jack Hughes | +15000 🔥 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | +25000 🔥 | +8000 | +8000 |
Rocket Richard Trophy best bets
(As of March 8)
- Connor McDavid (-5000 via Caesars)
- David Pastrnak (+3500 via DraftKings)
Check out our Vezina Trophy best bets.
Rocket Richard Trophy pick: Favorite
Connor McDavid (-5000 via Caesars)
Challengers had a brief window in mid-February when McDavid's scoring slowed, at least relative to his usual breakneck pace; he tallied just once in a seven-game span between Feb. 7-19, and saw his goal lead over Pastrnak dip to just one on Feb. 20.
Then, McDavid started doing McDavid things again, reeling off six multi-goal games in an eight-game stretch to extend his lead and become the prohibitive favorite.
Even if McDavid were to miss time, his advantage is so great that Pastrnak would need to catch fire down the stretch to even have a chance of challenging him.
Check out our Hart Trophy odds!
Rocket Richard Trophy pick: Underdog
David Pastrnak (+3500 via DraftKings)
Given that McDavid hasn't gone more than four games without scoring, it's going to be next to impossible for Pastrnak to make up the difference if McDavid remains active.
At his current rate of .70 goals per game, Pastrnak would have a shot to surpass McDavid if the Oilers center doesn't score any more goals this season. But the odds suggest that Pastrnak's implied probability to win the award ranges between 2.78% and 3.85%.
That seems about right under the circumstances.
Rocket Richard Trophy pick: Long shot
Tage Thompson (+6500 via DraftKings)
If Pastrnak is highly unlikely to catch McDavid, then Thompson is virtually out of the running despite being the No. 3 favorite. Thompson did score 30 goals in a 30-game stretch earlier in the season, and could make things interesting if he can find that kind of scoring touch again.
As a side note, it looks like Caesars is missing a '0' in their odds, since Thompson is at +500 at Caesars but +6500 at DraftKings and +4000 at Barstool.
Rocket Richard Trophy pick: Fade
Field
We are already at the point at which the players with the second- and third-shortest odds combine for about 4.3% of implied probability at DraftKings, so anyone else is going to be an extreme longshot.
Recent Rocket Richard Trophy winners
Odds from SportsOddsHistory.com.
| Year | Player | Team | Preseason odds |
| 2021-22 | Auston Matthews | Toronto Maple Leafs | +350 |
| 2020-21 | Auston Matthews | Toronto Maple Leafs | +450 |
| 2019-20 (tie) | David Pastrnak | Boston Bruins | +1600 |
| 2019-20 (tie) | Alex Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | +550 |
| 2018-19 | Alex Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | +650 |
| 2017-18 | Alex Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | +500 |
| 2016-17 | Sidney Crosby | Pittsburgh Penguins | +1400 |
| 2015-16 | Alex Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | +250 |
| 2014-15 | Alex Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | +300 |
| 2013-14 | Alex Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | +350 |
| 2012-13 | Alex Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | +400 |
Note: The 2012-13, 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons were shortened.
Rocket Richard Trophy FAQ
Who won the Rocket Richard Trophy last year?
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews won the Rocket Richard Trophy for the 2021-22 season, scoring 60 goals, finishing ahead of Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl and New York Rangers left winger Chris Kreider.
When will the Rocket Richard Trophy be decided?
The award is given to the player who scores the most goals during the National Hockey League regular season. The 2022-23 regular season ends on April 14.
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