Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Prediction & Odds: NHL Picks (Oct. 24)
The league's hottest team hosts a Toronto squad that's rediscovered its offensive spark as I break down my Maple Leafs vs. Oilers prediction. My best bet breaks down who will win the latest matchup between Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews.
Tonight's puck drop is set for 7 p.m. ET from Rogers Place in Edmonton (ESPN+, Sportsnet+). The Oilers are priced as at least a -185 home betting favorite across the market.
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers picks & odds today: Oct. 24
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.
| Pick | Best odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Oilers ML | -185 via DraftKings | 1.3 units to profit 0.7 units |
| Over 6.5 | -125 via DraftKings | 1 unit to profit 0.8 units |
Total wagered: 2.3 units | Max profit: 1.5 units
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Maple Leafs vs. Oilers prediction & best bet
Oilers ML (-185)
Amid injuries and poor play, the Maple Leafs have been as leaky as it gets on the back end. Few teams spend more time in their own zone than the Leafs, and they've allowed the third-most shots as a result.
No opponent is more dangerous for them than an Oilers squad that leads the NHL with an absurd 18.5% shooting percentage (i.e., they score on nearly 20% of their shots).
So while I wouldn't be surprised if the Maple Leafs cover the +1.5 spread on the road, there's more value in backing the Oilers moneyline anywhere below -200.
Score prediction: Oilers 4, Maple Leafs 3
📡 SBR Edge: McDavid's limitless ceiling
Connor McDavid reached 30 points in just 10 games this season, joining Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Mike Bossy as the only players in NHL history to accomplish the feat.
Best Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Over/Under bet
Over 6.5 (-125)
On the strength of Connor McDavid's historic start, the Oilers are the NHL's highest-scoring team, while the Maple Leafs are no slouch at eighth-best in the league.
Much of these teams' offensive success in the early stages of the season is due to their elite power-play units (Oilers rank second, Leafs third). And even while Toronto's penalty kill has been nearly flawless, it hasn't faced a test quite like this Oilers attack. But even if Edmonton is kept in check on the man advantage, there will be plenty of damage to be done at even strength against Toronto: The Maple Leafs have the third-most expected goals against at five-on-five, per MoneyPuck.
I wouldn't necessarily shy away from a 7-goal total, but I like the odds available at DraftKings on a 6.5 line. I would look for Over 7, however, if the odds stretch beyond -130.
Live Maple Leafs vs. Oilers odds
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers betting trends
| Maple Leafs | Statistic | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-2 | W-L record | 8-1-1 |
| 6-6 | ATS record | 7-3 |
| 7-5 | O/U record | 6-4 |
| 3-1-1 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers injuries
How to watch Maple Leafs vs. Oilers
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 24
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Place (Edmonton, Alta.)
- TV: Sportsnet
- Streaming: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
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