Does a Week 1 Loss Matter for Your Favorite Team's Super Bowl Odds?

So your favorite team lost in Week 1. Fortunately, 15 other NFL teams are staring down an 0-1 record, too, after the New York Jets lost on Monday Night Football.

That isn't a death sentence for a team's Super Bowl odds. Just look at last season, when the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Detroit Lions in the NFL season opener before eventually winning their third Lombardi Trophy in five years.

Still, a Week 1 loss certainly makes for a tougher road ahead - especially if you don't have the NFL MVP odds favorite on your side.

Here's a look at the most recent Super Bowl champions that started 0-1 and which teams could follow that path in 2024 with odds via our best Super Bowl betting sites.

Super Bowl champions that started 0-1

If you're feeling down about your team's Week 1 loss, you only have to look back 12 months to find an example of a team shaking off an 0-1 start to win the Super Bowl.

The bad news is that Kansas City's epic run last year is one of just 11 examples in NFL history of a team losing its season opener and eventually winning it all.

Such a turnaround has happened only twice in the last decade and five times in the last 20 years - and one of Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, or Eli Manning was at the helm for all five instances.

Brady was responsible for two other such comebacks (2001, 2003), while the other four teams relied on a Hall of Fame quarterback and coach or an all-time defense.

All told, just under 19% of all Super Bowl champions withstood a Week 1 loss. Only three teams - the 2007 Giants, 2001 Patriots, and 1993 Cowboys - survived two consecutive losses to open the year before eventually flipping the switch.

Which teams have best Super Bowl odds after Week 1 loss?

Super Bowl odds from our best NFL betting sites | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds

Baltimore Ravens (+1200)

The biggest consolation for the Ravens after their Week 1 loss is that it came at the hands of the two-time defending champions ... who also lost the first game of last season.

The reality check? Lamar Jackson was running for his life behind a patchwork offensive line that was at full strength, unlike many of the other injured units in Week 1.

It'll take some time for Baltimore's offense to gel, and its defense will surely endure some growing pains under new coordinator Zach Orr. I'd expect this team to improve as the year progresses, but the offensive line remains a legitimate concern.

Best odds: +1200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 7.69%

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Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)

I've mentioned this in a few articles already, including in my NFL Week 1 betting takeaways, but I wouldn't write off the Bengals just yet.

As surprising as Sunday's loss to the New England Patriots was on paper - Cincinnati was favored by 7.5 points, the biggest spread of any Week 1 game - we've come to expect this from the Bengals under head coach Zac Taylor, who is now 1-5 in season openers.

Ironically, the only win came in 2021 when the team eventually reached the Super Bowl. That isn't the best omen here. But there's simply too much talent on this roster, especially offensively, to let a Week 1 loss define the season.

Best odds: +2000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 4.76%

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New York Jets (+2200)

Monday's loss to the San Francisco 49ers wasn't unexpected - New York was a 3.5-point underdog - but it still felt like a missed opportunity for the Jets after an offseason full of hype.

Aaron Rodgers' arm was lively but couldn't fully overcome his immobility in the pocket, while the defense was gashed by backup running back Jordan Mason (147 yards) with Christian McCaffrey sidelined in the Niners' 32-19 win.

Much like with the Ravens, you don't want to read too much into a Week 1 loss against one of last year's Super Bowl contestants. Rodgers should be healthier as the season rolls on, but this defense has some questions to answer moving forward.

Best odds: +2200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 4.35%

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Green Bay Packers (+3500)

The Packers not only lost their season opener but also their franchise quarterback in Jordan Love, who sprained his MCL and is expected to miss the next month.

That isn't a great way to start the 2024 campaign for a team that had become the trendy Super Bowl pick among the NFL intelligentsia. That said, are we sure it's appropriate to double this team's title odds if Love does come back in a few weeks?

I bet on the Packers on Saturday afternoon once it became clear that Love wasn't facing a season-ending prognosis. That's the bigger concern compared to a Week 1 loss, and neither should end Green Bay's title hopes.

Best odds: +3500 via bet365 | Implied probability: 2.78%

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My favorite Super Bowl bet among 0-1 teams

Los Angeles Rams (+4000)

Entering the season, I thought the Rams' title odds of +3000 were a relative bargain. I'm even more bullish now that those odds have dipped to +4000.

Los Angeles nearly pulled off a stunning Week 1 win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football despite missing its top two tackles and losing star wideout Puka Nacua in the second quarter. He'll be placed on IR and miss at least four weeks.

The health of this roster is a concern, but the Super Bowl isn't played until February. Assuming this team can avoid mass attrition over the next 17 weeks, it sure looked like a potential playoff team even at less than full strength on Sunday.

With one of the NFL's best coach and quarterback tandems and enough roster talent around them, the Rams could make this Week 1 discount look like the value of the season in a few months' time.

Best odds: +4000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 2.44%

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