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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 4: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 25, 2024 9:28 AM EDT • 3 min 52 sec read.

Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones catches a pass from quarterback Sam Darnold against the Houston Texans.
Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones catches a pass from quarterback Sam Darnold against the Houston Texans. Photo by Brad Rempel via Imagn Images.

NFL underdog backers are likely rolling in dough this week, as a whopping eight underdogs won outright last week, putting a bow on what has been a crazy season to this point.

  • In each of the first three weeks of the season, the top moneyline favorite has lost (last week, it was the Cincinnati Bengals)
  • In Week 3, the top four favorites (Bengals, 49ers, Buccaneers, and Browns) all lost outright as moneyline favorites of -300 or shorter
  • Our NFL upset picks this week involve backing an undefeated team and a favorite that became an underdog after the line jumped the fence.

For more coverage on who to select with your NFL upset picks, check out our NFL Week 4 predictions.

NFL underdogs to back: Week 4

NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Week 4 upset predictions

NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Vikings (+126) ⭐⭐⭐

Let me start off with one declaration, that a wager on the Vikings becomes a much more confident four-star play if Malik Willis is under center again in place of the injured Jordan Love.

Vikings fans and their moneyline backers can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that Sam Darnold’s knee injury that forced him to miss one play last week showed no structural damage. His availability is vital for Minnesota’s chances, as he is the only quarterback in the league with multiple touchdown passes in all three games this season.

Darnold’s eight touchdown passes are tied for the third-most in a player’s first three games with their new team in the Super Bowl era. His ability to take care of the football (he is coming off his first career game of four touchdown passes and no interceptions) is vital when facing a Packers team that leads the league in turnover margin (plus-7).

Minnesota’s implied probability to pull off the upset is as high as 47.62% based on BetMGM’s +110 odds, but the best return is at Caesars, where a winning $10 wager would net $12.60 in profit.

We also backed the Vikings to win outright in our NFL survivor picks.

Best odds: +126 via Caesars | Implied probability: 44.25%

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Rams (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you needed any vindication that Sean McVay is an elite NFL head coach despite already winning an AP Coach of the Year Award and a Super Bowl, look no further than last week’s upset of the San Francisco 49ers.

Los Angeles is arguably the most decimated team by injuries in the league, but it knocked off one of the NFC’s best teams and had the resiliency to come from two touchdowns down to pull the upset, its first such win since 2012.

In the absence of its two best receivers (Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp), Los Angeles relied on Kyren Williams to spring last week’s upset, as he turned in his second career three-touchdown game.

Meanwhile, our best sports betting sites still made the Bears favorites as Caleb Williams set a Bears rookie record for passing yards in a game last week (363). But they are overlooking the fact that Chicago is still just 11-26 in Matt Eberflus' tenure as Bears head coach, and that Williams’ turnovers continue to be an issue, with multiple interceptions in consecutive games.

Several of our best sports betting apps are aligned with L.A.’s best odds being +140, so I am making my $10 wager at BetMGM with the hopes of returning a $24 payout.

Best odds: +140 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 41.67%

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Browns (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Raiders actually made last week’s loss to the Panthers look respectable but trailed 33-7 in the fourth quarter, and they lost their home opener for the third straight season.

Cleveland opened as a -115 moneyline road favorite, but I don't agree with the line jumping the fence, even in the wake of Myles Garrett’s injury.

Las Vegas has still been outrushed by 75 or more yards in all three games this season, and head coach Antonio Pierce's statements about players making business decisions and implying that big changes may occur (he did not rule out a quarterback change) does not inspire the most confidence as the favorite this week.

I am jumping on Cleveland’s -105 odds now before other roster news breaks that could swing the line back in the Browns’ favor. A winning $10 wager at BetMGM would pay out $19.52.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”