NFL Survivor Picks Week 4: It's Time to Trust the Real Contenders
We're still "alive" with our NFL survivor picks for Week 4 because, well, because I said so.
So let's dive right into this week's pick before our target also changes their quarterback (and it's entirely possible because he stinks).
OK, I'm giving myself a mulligan for last week's survivor pick. I made it before the Carolina Panthers benched Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton.
Though I never imagined Dalton would have the type of game he did, the Panthers were much less of an easy target without Young under center.
In fairness, I always should have picked the Seattle Seahawks at home against the Skylar Thompson-led Miami Dolphins.
Will we target the hopeless Dolphins in Week 4, or is there a better option out there?
Teams used:
- Week 1: New Orleans Saints (vs. Panthers) ✅
- Week 2: Los Angeles Chargers (at Panthers) ✅
- Week 3: Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Panthers) 🙅
- Week 4: Houston Texans (vs. Jaguars) 👀
Week 4 survivor picks: Rankings
(NFL odds for Week 4 via bet365 as of Sept. 23. Rankings from most to least confident.)
| Team | Opponent | Moneyline | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Texans | vs. Jaguars | -210 | 67.74% |
| 2. 49ers | vs. Patriots | -575 | 85.19% |
| 3. Bengals | at Panthers | -240 | 70.59% |
| 4. Jets | vs. Broncos | -315 | 75.90% |
| 5. Titans | at Dolphins | -110 | 52.38% |
| 6. Lions | vs. Seahawks | -210 | 67.74% |
| 7. Cardinals | vs. Commanders | -230 | 69.70% |
| 8. Cowboys | at Giants | -210 | 67.74% |
| 9. Vikings | at Packers | +125 | 44.44% |
| 10. Steelers | at Colts | -125 | 55.56% |
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Who I'm picking: Texans (vs. Jaguars)
You'll notice by our rankings that I'm ready to start dipping my toes in the pool with the NFL's biggest teams now that we're through three weeks. Therefore, my pick is the Texans, but I'd be fine taking the 49ers, Bengals, or Jets, too.
At this point in real survivor pools, if you're still alive, you're likely one of the few. And it won't last much longer.
So we're done looking for cute picks and now hunting for potential slaughters. This profiles as a beatdown (at least it did as of Monday afternoon).
The Texans were faced with a harsh reality check on Sunday by the Minnesota Vikings - who are in the business of destroying the hopes and dreams of offenses around the league.
However, a home matchup against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars will be just what the doctor ordered for C.J. Stroud and Co.
The Jaguars' defense has done a whole lot of nothing through two games, which will allow Stroud and his group of talented receivers to feast.
Once again, though, I'm fine riding with any of the top four.
Meanwhile, if you're looking for moneyline value outside of the survivor parameters, I love the Vikings at +125 this week.
See all of our NFL picks for Week 4 for more help with your survivor picks. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Who I'm fading: Chiefs (at Chargers)
I'm fading the Chiefs because they've looked relatively terrible for three games now but are 3-0. So I'm just banking on regression to finally hit.
Now, is it a wise idea to back the Chargers to deliver that regression? Probably not, but we can dream.
I think the Chiefs are getting way too much credit at our best sports betting sites.
They serve as massive -315 road favorites at bet365 despite barely escaping each of their first three games with a victory.
I wouldn't go so far as to bet on the Chargers - because they'll be facing both the Chiefs and the officiating crew - but I also wouldn't pick the Chiefs in my survivor pool at this point.
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