Russell Wilson Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Will Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson be able to overcome the weather when his Steelers visit the Browns on TNF?

Mike Spector

Last updated: November 21, 2024 7:51 AM EST • 5 min read

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson warms up for a game as we make our best Russell Wilson TNF player prop bets. — Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson warms up for a game against the Baltimore Ravens at Acrisure Stadium. Photo by: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images.

Russell Wilson looks to lead his Pittsburgh Steelers to a sixth consecutive win in a Thursday Night Football divisional matchup as road favorites against the Cleveland Browns.

Wilson has won four straight starts since replacing Justin Fields as Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback
The Steelers are 1-4-1 in their last six games against the Browns, averaging 15.3 points per game in that span
Pittsburgh won its second game of the season without scoring a touchdown last week, 18-16 over the Baltimore Ravens (2-2 in four such games)

The Thursday Night Football odds peg the Steelers as 3.5-point road favorites, with the O/U of 36.5 points projected as the lowest game on the Week 12 slate per the Week 12 odds. As we continue our Week 12 NFL predictions, we use those odds as the backdrop to make our Russell Wilson picks and predictions.

The kickoff for this Steelers-Browns primetime matchup (which I have broken down in my Steelers vs. Browns prediction) is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, airing on Prime Video.

Russell Wilson prop predictions for Thursday Night Football

NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Russell Wilson Under 186.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Russell Wilson Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+180 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Russell Wilson Under 0.5 interceptions (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Russell Wilson player props

NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Russell Wilson Under 186.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

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Wilson is used to playing in the rain, having spent the first 10 years of his career with the Seattle Seahawks. But the amount of rain expected, coupled with the low temperatures and wind gusts of over 20 mph in Cleveland, will make moving the ball through the air extremely difficult in this matchup.

Wilson managed just 6.3 fantasy points last week (ranked 24th among quarterbacks) despite facing a Ravens defense that entered the week with the most passing yards per game and passing touchdowns allowed.

With the forecast looking gloomy, it seems up for a lot of volume for running back Najee Harris, who rushed for a season-high five first downs last week. Philip Wood likes Harris to have a heavy workload in his Steelers vs. Browns TNF prop bets.

Under backers are getting a great number at FanDuel, as BetMGM is on the low end of the market with an O/U of 182.5. Through FanDuel’s -113 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.85.

Russell Wilson Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+180) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +180 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 35.71%

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This game has an O/U of 36.5 points, and the Steelers’ team total has an O/U of 19.5, which means points should be at a premium.

That alone is worth a flier on the plus-money odds for Wilson to go without a passing touchdown for a second consecutive week.

Wilson went just 2-for-9 for seven yards with an interception on red zone passes last week and completed one of eight pass attempts when pressured. His 8.4 QBR in the red zone is also the worst among all quarterbacks, and Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the NFL under Wilson since Week 7 with a 39% red zone touchdown percentage.

This is a three-star play, as the Browns are one of eight teams allowing 50% or more of their touchdowns on the ground. If Wilson goes without a touchdown pass, our $10 wager would net $18 in profits.

Russell Wilson Under 0.5 interceptions (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Wilson has thrown an interception in back-to-back games after two consecutive starts to begin his Steelers tenure without throwing a pick. But given that he projects to attempt nowhere near the season-high 36 passes he threw last week, the lack of passing volume should keep him out of harm’s way.

The Browns' defense is tied for 30th with just two interceptions on the season. As one of three teams with seven or fewer takeaways on the year, they do not inspire much confidence in forcing the Steelers into turnovers this week.

BetMGM is the only top sports betting site charging less than -115 in juice to back the Under.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”