2023 NFL Running Back Sleepers, Busts and Best Bets
The overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting is significant – so why not get two sets of advice in one place? We at Sportsbook Review have asked four of our top NFL betting analysts to offer their insight into the top running back sleepers and busts, along with their top betting plays based on the latest NFL odds. Also, check out our top quarterback and top wide receiver sleepers, busts, and best bets.
The running back position in fantasy football has become the ultimate risk-reward slot. Come out of your draft with the right combination of rushers, and you'll be in the hunt for that fantasy title; land even one marquee back who underperforms or winds up injured, and it's off to the consolation bracket with you.
NFL bettors find themselves with a similar quandary. It's one thing to invest in Overs on a running back expected to see the bulk of the work for his team – but circumstances can change in an instant, in the form of competition from an unheralded backup, negative game script, a serious injury, or some other calamitous event.
Have a look as four of our top NFL betting analysts share their thoughts on the 2023 NFL running back landscape as part of our 2023 NFL betting guide based on the odds from our best sports betting apps (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Top 12 Fantasy Running Backs by ADP
| Rank | Player | Team | ADP | Rush Yd Prop | Rush TD Prop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 2.3 | 875.5 (-125/+100) | 7.5 (+100/-120) |
| 2 | Austin Ekeler | Chargers | 2.7 | 825.5 (+105/-130) | 8.5 (+100/-120) |
| 3 | Nick Chubb | Browns | 6.1 | 1,225.5 (-110/-110) | 8.5 (-140/+110) |
| 4 | Bijan Robinson | Falcons | 7.2 | 1,125.5 (+100/-125) | 8.5 (+100/-120) |
| 5 | Saquon Barkley | Giants | 9.6 | 1,000.5 (-110/-110) | OTB |
| 6 | Derrick Henry | Titans | 12.1 | 1,150.5 (-115/-105) | 9.5 (-110/-110) |
| 7 | Tony Pollard | Cowboys | 13.6 | 1,050.5 (+110/-140) | 8.5 (+120/-150) |
| 8 | Josh Jacobs | Raiders | 19.5 | OTB | OTB |
| 9 | Jonathan Taylor | Colts | 21.2 | OTB | OTB |
| 10 | Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots | 24.3 | 925.5 (-110/-110) | OTB |
| 11 | Najee Harris | Steelers | 26.2 | 925.5 (-125/+100) | OTB |
| 12 | Travis Etienne | Jaguars | 27.7 | 950.5 (+100/-125) | OTB |
(1/2 PPR ADP courtesy Fantasy Football Calculator; rushing props via bet365; last updated Thursday, Aug. 24 at 11:30 a.m. ET)
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Running Back Sleepers
D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Swift to lead the NFL in scrimmage yards (+6600 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
D'Andre Swift is my top under-the-radar running back, enough so to make him the centerpiece of the return package I received in a dynasty fantasy trade involving Tyreek Hill. The Eagles have a crowded backfield but general manager Howie Roseman has too good of a track record to believe he wasted assets in acquiring the former second-round pick.
–– Esten McLaren (SBR | Twitter/X)
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: White Over 674.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Rachaad White is the starting running back no one’s talking about. The 2022 third-round pick was in the shadow of Leonard Fournette last year but will have the backfield to himself in 2023. Our Neil Parker projects for White to go over his rushing yards prop of 674.5 yards at BetMGM and I’m right there in lockstep with him.
–– Mike McClymont (SBR | Twitter/X)
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Pick: Cook Over 625.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
I got an early bet in on James Cook to clear a 600.5 rushing yards total through Caesars in July, and the sportsbook has since moved the number to 650.5 and then back down to 625.5. I have the Buffalo Bills sophomore projected for 699 rushing yards, so my price for the Over 625.5 is -157 and presents a positive expected value of 14% over the Caesars number.
–– Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Pick: James Conner Over 5.5 rushing touchdowns (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sure, the Cardinals will be awful, excruciating to watch, and they’ll struggle to move the ball in every sense. But even putrid teams score touchdowns, and the human bowling ball that is James Conner is well-positioned to do plenty of scoring for Arizona. There’s a clear health risk, as Conner has yet to suit up for a full NFL season. But he scores a whole lot when healthy and racked up seven rushing touchdowns over only 13 games in 2022, and he’s one season removed from 15 TDs on a modest 202 carries.
–– Sean Tomlinson (SBR | Twitter/X)
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Running Back Busts
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Pick: Pierce Under 900.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
FanDuel has the line for Dameon Pierce's 2023 rushing total set at 850.5 with equal -112 odds on either side. With DraftKings offering a 50-point cushion on its line, I'm more than happy to pay the extra three cents on an Under for a sophomore running back working with a rookie quarterback in a new offense.
–– Esten McLaren
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Mattison Under 900.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Forgive me for being the buzzkill on Alexander Mattison. A fantasy darling for years as an injury replacement for Dalvin Cook, he’s now the bellcow for the Minnesota Vikings, but I’m not convinced the 25-year-old will meet lofty expectations. Give me the Under on his 900.5 rushing yards prop.
–– Mike McClymont
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Pick: Hall Under 875.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐
Exceeded injury optimism has been the downfall of punters and poolies for decades, and blindly banking on Breece Hall (knee) returning to his 2023 form could quickly prove to be fool’s gold. So, even while I have Hall optimistically projected for 936 rushing yards, there’s just too much risk that he’s eased back into action, aggravates the injury or simply isn’t as explosive following his surgery. Plus, I don’t have any confidence in the New York Jets' offensive line.
–– Neil Parker
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Pick: Jones Under 875.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Aaron Jones defined the boom-or-bust player in 2022. He erupted for 157 total yards in one game, and was held to just 44 in another. Those extremes could easily continue in 2023, especially with Jordan Love trying to find his footing and Jones facing more negative game scripts as a result.
–– Sean Tomlinson
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Running Back Best Bets
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Ekeler Over 750.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Austin Ekeler has been one of the league's top dual-threat running backs and amassed 1,637 scrimmage yards last season. However, with the Chargers' additions of rookie receiver Quentin Johnson and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, I expect the 28-year-old back to be used in a more traditional manner this season and do his damage on the ground.
–– Esten McLaren
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Pick: Chubb to lead the NFL in rushing yards (+650 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
It may be chalk, but give me Nick Chubb to lead the league in rushing, especially at +650 odds at bet365. No longer ceding carries to Kareem Hunt, Chubb will have a full workload and a full season of the threat of a passing game from Deshaun Watson this season. He’s also motivated to honor former Cleveland Browns great Jim Brown.
–– Mike McClymont
Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Penny Over 600.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Running behind an elite Eagles offensive line will clear the way for Rashaad Penny to soar Over this pedestrian total. I have Penny conservatively projected for 723 rushing yards, and my price for him to go Over 600.5 rushing yards is -181. It all adds up to a positive expected value of 23% over the BetMGM number. This is my favorite rushing prop pick for the 2023 NFL season.
–– Neil Parker
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Pick: McCaffrey to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1400 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
The 49ers’ offense is loaded with weapons, and therefore also competition for touches. But Christian McCaffrey is still in an ideal spot to lead the charge, especially with a relatively inexperienced passer under center, no matter who wins the team’s quarterback battle. McCaffrey is fresh off producing six games with 100-plus yards from scrimmage in 2022, including outbursts for 149, 138, and 193 yards.
–– Sean Tomlinson
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