2023 NFL Quarterback Sleepers, Busts, and Best Bets
The overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting is significant – so why not get two sets of advice in one place? We at Sportsbook Review have asked four of our top NFL betting analysts to offer their insight into the top quarterback sleepers and busts, along with their top betting plays based on the latest NFL odds. Also, see our top running back and top wide receiver sleepers, busts and best bets.
Landing a great quarterback will usually keep you in the hunt in your fantasy football leagues – but it can be difficult to do if you don't snag one of the leading options.
Discourse on when to draft a quarterback is always spirited. But if you're like most fantasy players and leave the QB decision to later in your draft, you'll want to be sure you're landing a player with significant upside. Conversely, if you do take the plunge early, it's essential that you avoid high-profile QBs who ultimately underperform.
Those same principles apply to your QB futures bets. You need to know which unheralded quarterbacks are great bets to exceed their sportsbook totals, and which star signal-callers are due for negative regression. That's the difference between turning a profit and coming up empty-handed.
Have a look as our analysts share their thoughts on the 2023 NFL quarterback landscape as part of our 2023 NFL betting guide based on the odds from our best sports betting apps (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Top 12 Fantasy Quarterbacks by ADP
| Rank | Player | Team | ADP | Pass Yd Prop | Pass TD Prop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 17.8 | 4,800.5 (-110/-110) | 36.5 (-105/-115) |
| 2 | Josh Allen | Bills | 24.1 | 4,350 (-105/-115) | 32.5 (+100/-125) |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 24.8 | 3,650 (-110/-110) | 22.5 (+100/-120) |
| 4 | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 35.4 | 3,550.5 (+105/-130) | 23.5 (-115/-105) |
| 5 | Joe Burrow | Bengals | 40.6 | 4,425.5 (+105/-130) | 33.5 (+110/-140) |
| 6 | Justin Herbert | Chargers | 44.9 | 4,500.5 (+100/-125) | 29.5 (-115/-105) |
| 7 | Justin Fields | Bears | 46.7 | 2,950.5 (+110/-130) | 17.5 (-120/+100) |
| 8 | Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 55.9 | 3,950.5 (-130/+105) | 25.5 (-125/+100) |
| 9 | Deshaun Watson | Browns | 70.9 | 3,625.5 (-105/-115) | 24.5 (+100/-120) |
| 10 | Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 77.3 | 4,050.5 (+110/-140) | 26.5 (+100/-125) |
| 11 | Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 81.1 | 3,800.5 (-110/-110) | 26.5 (-105/-115) |
| 12 | Kirk Cousins | Vikings | 91.1 | 4,350.5 (+100/-125) | 29.5 (+100/-120) |
(12-team ADP courtesy Fantasy Football Calculator; passing props via bet365; last updated Thursday, Aug. 24 at 11:30 a.m. ET)
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2023 Quarterback Sleepers
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Pick: Love Over 3,350.5 passing yards (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Just because the back of his jersey doesn't read "Rodgers," there's a prevailing narrative that Jordan Love won't succeed in 2023. The Packers have been observing him in practice for years and made the choice to trade Rodgers and elevate Love to the starting position. They wouldn't have taken that step if the team wasn't confident in his ability. I've come across projections for Love that forecast him throwing for 3,717 yards, a figure that would notably exceed the totals posted at some of our best sportsbooks.
–– Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+900 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
With Anthony Richardson slated to start in Week 1, we don’t have to temper expectations for the rookie quarterback. Four of the top five EPA (expected points added) seasons among rookie quarterbacks since 2010 have come from passers who run a lot, according to the preview at ClevAnalytics.com. That includes Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton. Colts head coach Shane Steichen will help Richardson hit the ground running.
–– Shane Jackson (SBR | Twitter/X)
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Ridder Over 2,500.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
There’s plenty of buzz tied to the Atlanta Falcons heading into the 2023 NFL season, and I'm conservatively projecting Ridder to record 2,817 passing yards. My price for the Over on 2,500.5 yards is -215, which presents a positive expected value of 29% compared to FanDuel's odds.
–– Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Pick: Jones Over 17.5 touchdown passes (-112 via FanDuel)⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
I know, I know. Daniel Jones doesn't throw touchdown passes. In fact, he's averaging fewer than one TD toss per game over his past three seasons combined. But the times are a-changing for the Giants, who shocked the world with nine wins in 2022, and they've now added several passing-game weapons, chiefly standout tight end Darren Waller. Jones's 2023 touchdown total is woefully low given the depth and skill around him, and he should clear it with ease.
–– James Bisson (SBR | Twitter/X)
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2023 Quarterback Busts
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Pick: Allen Under 4350.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
First, a clarification: I'm going with "most likely to disappoint relative to his betting odds." Josh Allen is among the NFL's elite quarterbacks, but I believe his totals are slightly inflated heading into 2023. I'm seeing Allen projected to throw for 4,337 yards, yet his total is trading at 4350.5 through DraftKings and bet365.
–– Jon Metler
Fear not Buffalo Bills backers, as I’m not billing Allen to be a bust this season. I’m just seeing a slight edge in my numbers and this total. I’ve got Allen projected for 4,252 passing yards and would price this prop at -125. So we’re gaining a slight positive expected value of 6%.
–– Neil Parker
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Pick: Tagovailoa Under 26.5 passing touchdowns (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is in a dream scenario, with Mike McDaniel calling plays along with the big-play ability of receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But don’t forget that Tua ended the season on a sour note, finishing as the 27th-ranked QB in EPA from Week 12 onward. Tua’s 2023 preseason expectations are probably priced closer to his ceiling after a career-high touchdown rate during a 25-score campaign.
–– Shane Jackson
Pick: Tagovailoa Under 3,850.5 passing yards (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I watched more than my share of Miami Dolphins highlights in 2022. I understand the excitement, but I just don't buy into it. Tagovailoa surprised plenty of opposing defenses in 2022 en route to leading the NFL in yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, and yards per catch. But two huge games padded his overall yardage stats, and he's coming off consecutive scary concussions suffered in 2022. I simply can't trust the guy, especially with such a high yardage total.
–– James Bisson
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2023 Quarterback Best Bets
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Pick: Love to record 4,000-plus regular-season passing yards (+750 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
I can't believe I'm featuring Love twice in this article as a Minnesota Vikings fan, but here we go. Love is listed at +230 to throw for 4,000-plus passing yards through FanDuel, and he's priced at +500 at bet365. The price difference between FanDuel and bet365 stands out, but it becomes even more appealing when you see Love's odds at +750 through DraftKings. The trading team at DraftKings doesn't like Love this season, which is why I'm targeting his passing yards total and this prop at their sportsbook.
–– Jon Metler
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Dak Prescott Under 12.5 interceptions (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s interception total is a bit inflated due to some bad turnover luck after leading the league with 15 picks in 2022. Prescott ranked 13th in the league with 18 turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus. We'll bet on some regression as Prescott plays in a more conservative offensive scheme this year.
–– Shane Jackson
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Richardson Over 16.5 passing touchdowns (+125 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
I’ve already put Richardson to throw for Over 2,447.5 passing yards in my portfolio, and it's one of my favorite NFL passing props. This is another way to get in on the athletically gifted quarterback. I'm pegging Richardson for 17.4 touchdown passes, and I’d price this Over at -142. The difference checks out as a positive expected value of 32% over Caesars.
–– Neil Parker
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Hurts Over 22.5 passing touchdowns (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jalen Hurts' touchdown total for 2023 is sitting pretty much where he finished 2022, and that's odd to me. Not only has Hurts pushed his TD tally up substantially in each of his second and third NFL seasons, but he's also armed with one of the best receiving tandems in football. He should also be in more competitive games than 2022, when the Eagles boasted a plus-89 point differential during the first half of their opening seven contests. Hurts shouldn't struggle to blow past this number, even in Philly's run-heavy offense.
–– James Bisson
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