NFL Rushing Props 2023: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Week 1 of the season is right around the corner, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has evaluated the available NFL rushing props markets across our best sports betting apps and shares his picks based on the latest NFL odds.

Rushing the rock doesn’t return the same respect it once did, but you’ll be hard pressed to find a championship-caliber team that can’t move the chains with the ground and pound when needed.

Mobile quarterbacks are all the rage, there’s been an uptick in wide receivers handling the ball out of the backfield, and true No. 1 running backs are becoming more scarce by the season.

Committee rushing attacks are here to stay, and it adds another layer of analysis required to best approach NFL rushing props.

Following our NFL passing props picks, here’s a look at my initial NFL rushing props picks and the odds available across our best NFL betting sites.

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NFL most rushing yards odds 2023

(NFL most rushing yards odds as of Sept. 1)

NFL most rushing touchdowns odds 2023

(NFL most rushing touchdowns odds as of Sept. 1)

NFL rushing props 2023: Picks

• Aaron Jones Over 799.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• James Cook Over 600.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Rashaad Penny Over 600.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Rachaad White Over 674.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• J.K. Dobbins Over 799.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
• Dameon Pierce Over 850.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Travis Etienne Over 900.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Derrick Henry Over 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL rushing props 2023: Handicap breakdown

Here’s a quick breakdown of my handicapping process:

• Create custom projections for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns
• Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
• Convert the probability to odds
• Compare my odds with the numbers across our best live betting sites

NFL rushing props 2023: Predictions

Aaron Jones Over 799.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

I don’t expect the BetMGM total of 799.5 to last long, especially considering the 875.5 benchmark Caesars is hanging.

Jones has cleared 1,000 rushing yards in three of the past four seasons, with the 2021 campaign the lone outlier when he rushed for 799 across 15 games.

Having backfield running mate A.J. Dillion to share the workload with is also a benefit for Jones. The tandem attack keeps both rushers fresh and explosive. Jones’ career-high 236 carries came all the way back in 2019.

Add the Green Bay Packers turning the offense over to first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love, and making Jones and the rushing game a priority will be paramount to sheltering Love and sustaining lengthy, clock-eating drives.

I have Jones projected for 881 rushing yards.

As highlighted, there’s a huge gap in the total and attached expected value between the sportsbooks offering this prop. BetMGM is the best place to place this bet, and DraftKings is a close second.

Editor’s note: BetMGM has moved the total for Aaron Jones’ rushing yards to 849.5 (-110) as of Sept. 1.

James Cook Over 600.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

The Buffalo Bills handled Cook with baby gloves as a rookie last season, as he only played 257 offensive snaps. Still, he flashed the potential that made him a second-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft with 507 rushing yards on just 89 attempts and six totes for more than 20 yards.

Buffalo bringing in veteran backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray curbs some of the upside for Cook to have a true statistical breakout this season, but again, I’m viewing the shared backfield as a positive.

Additionally, Harris has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons, and Murray is a 33-year-old plodder with 1,481 career carries on the odometer. Plus, it’s Cook who is the prized talent the club invested draft capital in. 

If anything, Harris and Murray boost Cook’s production floor more than they lower his statistical ceiling.

I project Cook to run for 699 yards.

There’s a reason only one of our best sportsbooks has a rushing-yard total available for Cook. He’s a difficult player to handicap right now, so hat tip to Caesars for posting a number, and I see a lot of value in the Over based on my projection.

Editor’s note: The total for Cook's rushing yards is set at 675.5 (-115) through Caesars as of Sept. 1.

Rashaad Penny Over 600.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Penny hasn’t been able to stay healthy through his first five seasons in the league. He’s started just 11 games and been limited to only 337 rushing attempts.

Still, I’m encouraged about his signing with the Philadelphia Eagles. He’ll run behind an elite offensive line, and after rushing for 6.2 yards per tote the past two years, the former Seattle Seahawk is just another matchup nightmare opposing defenses will need to account for.

Additionally, while Penny has been routinely saddled to the sideline to this point of his career, it’s been a bit unlucky. We’re not talking about a serious injury that’s been aggravated time and time again. 

Penny will also have plenty of competition for snaps with the Eagles trading for running back D’Andre Swift during the offseason, and Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott each have an established role in the rushing attack. 

It’ll ultimately boil down to Penny suiting up for double-digit games and garnering 125 carries. My projection has Penny finishing with 723 rushing yards.

It’s almost fitting that the prop with the highest expected value after running the numbers is also the one I was least confident in at first glance because of Penny’s injury history. BetMGM has just over baked the risk and competition for carries into the total, and there’s a huge gap in its benchmark and my projection.

Just repeat after me, and multiple times if needed, Penny can miss multiple games and still cash the Over.

Rachaad White Over 674.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Admittedly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a true wild card on offense following quarterback Tom Brady’s retirement, and White rushed for just 3.7 yards per tote as a rookie last season.

Still, White emerged as the best Buc back in the second half last year and he’s positioned to see the bulk of the workload in 2023.

Tampa Bay invested a third-round pick in the Arizona State product, so I expect White to flirt with doubling his 129 carries as a freshman. 

I’ll add that Caesars has already dropped its total from 775.5 to 750.5, which reinforces that my projection of 771 rushing yards for White is a sturdy preseason flag pole.

The Caesars total is accurate based on my numbers, so we’re landing excellent value on the Over through both BetMGM and DraftKings. Just note that paying the shorter vig on a higher total through BetMGM results in a slightly better expected value.

Editor’s note: BetMGM has moved the odds for Rachaad White’s rushing yards total of 674.5 to -130 as of Sept. 1.

J.K. Dobbins Over 799.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

There are definitely a few red flags clouding over Dobbins’ offseason. He missed minicamp in June, and there are conflicting reports on why. 

Was it a contract issue, or was Dobbins nursing a soft-tissue injury?

Nonetheless, what we saw from the 2020 second-round selection down the stretch last year was proof of his upside as a rusher. He ran wild for 459 yards on just 70 attempts – 6.6 per tote - over his final five games, and that was while Baltimore Ravens No. 1 quarterback Lamar Jackson was sidelined with a season-ending knee injury.

I have Dobbins projected for 898 rushing yards.

I respect the total Caesars is hanging, and I’m not anticipating Dobbins to repeat the highlighted 6.6 yards per carry. Still, if he’s receiving double-digit carries and plays 15 games, a 5.5 mark will more than accomplish the job. For comparison, he’s rushed for 5.9 across 229 career attempts.

Editor’s note: The total for J.K. Dobbins’ rushing yards is only available through DraftKings (800.5, -120/+100), and Caesars (750.5, -115/-115) as of Sept. 1. 

Dameon Pierce Over 850.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

There’s value across the board with Pierce’s totals, but the largest edge is through FanDuel. I have the sophomore projected for 934 rushing yards, which is actually lower than the 939 he scampered for across 13 games last season.

I’m anticipating the Houston Texans to be one of the more run-heavy offenses in the league, and Pierce showed enough as a rookie to give me confidence he can turn in another solid campaign.

I have his Over 850.5 rushing yards priced at -163, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 17% on the FanDuel odds.

Finally, I also value the Singletary addition. Splitting carries out of the backfield will enable both Singletary and Pierce to stay fresh during games and hopefully healthy throughout the season.

Travis Etienne Over 900.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

This is another prop with an edge based on my projection of Etienne finishing the year with 978 rushing yards. I’d price the Over 900.5 at -135, which presents a 9% positive expected value on the -112 price through FanDuel.

Etienne played all 17 games with the Jacksonville Jaguars last year and finished with 1,125 rushing yards. And, he split playing time with James Robinson to start the campaign.

While it wasn’t all roses and sunshine, as Etienne struggled with drops and often lacked the rush-to-rush consistency to complement his explosiveness, I’m buying the benefit of another full offseason, added experience, and an undisputed No. 1 role out of the backfield heading into his second year. 

Editor’s note: FanDuel has moved the total for Travis Etienne’s rushing yards to 875.5 (-112) as of Sept. 1.

Derrick Henry Over 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Make no mistake, Henry’s best days as a rusher are in the rearview. But he's still been on cruise control to double-digit touchdowns each of the past five years, including across just eight games when injured in 2021.

Henry led the NFL in carries for the third time in four years in 2022, and he quickly silenced any concerns that a 2021 foot injury would linger or be Step 1 toward a decline.

Henry’s broken-tackle percentage and positive run rate were higher in 2022 than 2021, and I'm also confident in his durability and go-to role in the Tennessee Titans’ offense.

I've got Henry projected for 9.7 rushing touchdowns, so my Over on 8.5 is priced at -202 with an attached 19% positive expected value compared to the -128 through FanDuel.

Editor’s note: FanDuel has moved the total for Derrick Henry’s rushing touchdowns to 9.5 (-102) as of Sept. 1.

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