NFL Passing Props 2023: Odds, Picks & Predictions
NFL passing props for the 2023 season have been available for months across our best sports betting apps, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers to share a number picks based on the latest NFL odds.
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner, and I’ve already started peeking at the NFL passing props available across our best sportsbooks and shared my NFL rushing props picks. There wasn’t much value to be found in the odds of a quarterback throwing for 5,000 yards, but the pursuit never ends and will continue right up to Week 1.
Here’s a look at my initial NFL passing props picks and the odds available across our best NFL betting sites.
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NFL most passing yards odds 2023
(NFL most passing yards odds as of Sept. 1)
| Quarterback | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +275 | +250 | +250 | +400 🔥 | +350 |
| Justin Herbert | +650 🔥 | +450 | +400 ❄️ | +450 | +550 |
| Josh Allen | +900 | +1200 🔥 | +900 | +900 | +1100 |
| Joe Burrow | +900 | +850 | +900 | +600 ❄️ | +700 |
| Kirk Cousins | +1000 | +1400 | +1400 | +900 ❄️ | +1100 |
| Dak Prescott | +1300 ❄️ | +2200 🔥 | +2000 | +1600 | +2000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1800 🔥 | +1600 | +1400 ❄️ | +1500 | +1600 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2000 | +3000 🔥 | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +2200 🔥 | +1800 | +2000 | +1500 ❄️ | +1200 |
| Jared Goff | +2500 | +2800 🔥 | +2500 | +1600 ❄️ | +2000 |
NFL most passing touchdowns odds 2023
(NFL most passing touchdowns odds as of Sept. 1)
| Quarterback | DraftKings | FanDuel | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +275 | +350 🔥 | +300 | +250 ❄️ |
| Joe Burrow | +450 | +600 🔥 | +400 ❄️ | +550 |
| Josh Allen | +500 | +600 🔥 | +500 | +400 ❄️ |
| Aaron Rodgers | +650 ❄️ | +1400 🔥 | +700 | +1200 |
| Justin Herbert | +1100 🔥 | +600 | +1000 | +500 ❄️ |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1600 | +1600 | +2000 🔥 | +1600 |
| Dak Prescott | +1600 | +1800 | +1500 ❄️ | +2200 🔥 |
| Kirk Cousins | +2000 | +1200 | +2000 | +1200 |
| Russell Wilson | +2500 | +3000 | +2000 ❄️ | +3300 🔥 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +3000 | +1800 ❄️ | +3000 | +2200 |
NFL passing props 2023: Picks
- Kenny Pickett Over 3,125.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Fields Over 2,775.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jordan Love Over 3,350.5 passing yards (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Anthony Richardson Over 2,475.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- C.J. Stroud Over 3,175.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
NFL passing props 2023: Handicap breakdown
Here’s a quick breakdown of my handicapping process:
- Create custom projections for passing yards and passing touchdowns
- Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
- Convert the probability to odds
- Compare my odd with the numbers across our best live betting sites
Kenny Pickett Over 3,125.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Not starting until Week 4 and sustaining a pair of in-game concussions took a toll on Pickett’s final stat line during his rookie season. The underwhelming numbers from his teammates didn’t help, either.
Despite tossing up a respectable 8.2 yard average target depth, his 6.2 yards per attempt ranked second lowest in the league. Additionally, Pickett’s 11.9 dropped-pass percentage was the fourth highest.
Still, another full offseason to develop chemistry, alongside another step forward from wide receiver George Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth are further reasons for optimism.
Finally, I also value Pickett’s improvements as the 2022 season played out.
He posted his five highest passing grades per Pro Football Focus between Weeks 13 and 18. The Pittsburgh pass offense ranked ninth by DVOA during the stretch, per Football Outsiders, and Pickett also checked out sixth in adjusted EPA per play.
I have Pickett projected for 3,341 passing yards.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over total | 3,300.5 | 3,125.5 | 3,125.5 | 3,250.5 |
| Over odds | +100 | -112 | -110 | -115 |
| My Over odds | -116 | -209 | -209 | -137 |
| Expected Value | 7% | 28% | 29% | 8% |
There’s a notable edge to be found betting this Over through BetMGM and to a slightly lesser degree via FanDuel.
Editor’s note: BetMGM has moved the total for Kenny Pickett’s passing yards to 3,299.5 (-115) as of Sept. 1.
Justin Fields Over 2,775.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
This is a pedestrian total, and Fields will have to either miss time or somehow negatively regress as a passer to fall shy. He averaged 162.1 passing yards per game over a 12-showing stretch from Weeks 4 through 17, and that prorates to 2,775.7 yards across 17 games.
The supporting cast around Fields is better, and another full offseason to further acclimatize to offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s offense will help. Chicago brought in a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver in D.J. Moore during the offseason, which will also reposition the rest of the pass-catchers into a more appropriate role relative to their skill set.
Scooping up offensive linemen Darnell Wright with the 10th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft was another plus.
Finally, I’m anticipating opposing defenses to make Fields and the Bears beat them through the air more this season. He ran for video-game numbers in 2022, so it’ll only take a slight uptick in pass attempts to cash in on this Over.
I project Fields to throw for 2,991 passing yards.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over total | 2,850.5 | 2,775.5 | 2,899.5 | 2,950.5 |
| Over odds | -105 | -112 | -110 | -115 |
| My Over odds | -163 | -225 | -137 | -115 |
| Expected Value | 21% | 31% | 10% | 0% |
FanDuel is hanging an outlier total for Fields, and there’s a clear edge in taking advantage. This is especially true when looking at the tighter total and price available through Caesars.
Jordan Love Over 3,350.5 passing yards (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
The Love era has arrived in Green Bay, and after three years of backup duty, the first-round selection of the 2020 NFL Draft has finally been handed the keys to the offense.
While what we know about Love as an NFL quarterback can fit under a block of cheese, the Packers will run out a veteran offensive line and one of the best running-back tandems in the league.
Unfortunately, the pass-catching corps can also snuggle in under the block of cheese alongside Love.
Green Bay will have sophomores Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs atop the wide receiver depth chart with 2023 second-rounder Jayden Reed projecting as the No. 3 at this stage of the game. The Packers used their first, second-round selection on unproven, but gifted tight end Luke Musgrave.
All the knowns and unknowns add up to my projection of 3,476 passing yards for Love.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over total | 3,350.5 | 3,325.5 | 3,399.5 | 3,200.5 |
| Over odds | +125 | -112 | -110 | -115 |
| My Over odds | -153 | -199 | -133 | -250 |
| Expected Value | 36% | 26% | 9% | 33% |
And, this is where things become fun …
While Caesars has the lowest yardage total to clear, the -115 odds actually return a lower expected value than the +125 price for the higher total through DraftKings. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the Caesars route, but math is math, so it’s highway DraftKings for me.
Anthony Richardson Over 2,475.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
I’m betting on Richardson’s unrivaled athleticism here, and that the Indianapolis Colts won’t leave him on the sidelines long— if at all this season.
Richardson remains a raw, 21-year-old prospect and rookie peaks and valleys are ahead, but it’ll be coaching malpractice for the best athlete on the team to be handling the clipboard instead of the football.
The available passing-yards totals don’t align with Richardson playing all 17 games, and in fact, it’s not required for him to skyrocket over the low benchmark FanDuel is hanging.
I have Richardson projected for 2,783 passing yards, so there are currently no bad bets on the board. There’s just an incredibly cushy total to capitalize on through FanDuel.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over total | 2,600.5 | 2,475.5 | 2,599.5 | 2,571.5 |
| Over odds | -120 | -112 | -120 | -115 |
| My Over odds | -165 | -234 | -165 | -181 |
| Expected Value | 14% | 33% | 14% | 16% |
Editor’s note: FanDuel has moved the total for Anthony Richardson’s passing yards to 2,700.5 (-112) as of Sept. 1.
C.J. Stroud Over 3,175.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
I have Stroud projected for 3,344 passing yards, with the Over 3,175.5 priced at -143. As a result, there’s a positive expected value of 11% attached to the -112 number through FanDuel.
DraftKings listing this total at a much higher 3,400.5 yards is also encouraging.
Admittedly, Stroud doesn’t have explosive playmakers at his disposal, and I anticipate the Houston Texans’ offense prioritizing the rushing attack with running backs Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary checking out as a solid one-two punch.
Still, I think Stroud opens the season as the starting quarterback and compiles his way Over this total.
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Editor’s note: FanDuel has moved the total for C.J. Stroud’s passing yards to 3,075.5 (-112) as of Sept. 1.
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