Skip to main content

NFL passing props for the 2023 season have been available for months across our best sports betting apps, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers to share a number picks based on the latest NFL odds.

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner, and I’ve already started peeking at the NFL passing props available across our best sportsbooks and shared my NFL rushing props picks. There wasn’t much value to be found in the odds of a quarterback throwing for 5,000 yards, but the pursuit never ends and will continue right up to Week 1.

Here’s a look at my initial NFL passing props picks and the odds available across our best NFL betting sites.

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!

NFL most passing yards odds 2023

(NFL most passing yards odds as of Sept. 1) 

QuarterbackDraftKings FanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Patrick Mahomes+275+250+250+400 🔥+350
Justin Herbert+650 🔥+450+400 ❄️+450+550
Josh Allen+900+1200 🔥+900+900+1100
Joe Burrow+900+850+900+600 ❄️+700
Kirk Cousins+1000+1400+1400+900 ❄️+1100
Dak Prescott+1300 ❄️+2200 🔥+2000+1600+2000
Trevor Lawrence+1800 🔥+1600+1400 ❄️+1500+1600
Aaron Rodgers+2000+3000 🔥+2000+2000+2000
Tua Tagovailoa+2200 🔥+1800+2000+1500 ❄️+1200
Jared Goff+2500+2800 🔥+2500+1600 ❄️+2000

NFL most passing touchdowns odds 2023

(NFL most passing touchdowns odds as of Sept. 1)

QuarterbackDraftKingsFanDuelCaesars bet365
Patrick Mahomes+275+350 🔥+300+250 ❄️
Joe Burrow+450+600 🔥+400 ❄️+550
Josh Allen+500+600 🔥+500+400 ❄️
Aaron Rodgers+650 ❄️+1400 🔥+700+1200
Justin Herbert+1100 🔥+600+1000+500 ❄️
Tua Tagovailoa+1600+1600+2000 🔥+1600 
Dak Prescott+1600+1800+1500 ❄️+2200 🔥
Kirk Cousins+2000+1200+2000+1200
Russell Wilson+2500+3000+2000 ❄️+3300 🔥
Trevor Lawrence+3000+1800 ❄️+3000+2200

NFL passing props 2023: Picks

  • Kenny Pickett Over 3,125.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐
  • Justin Fields Over 2,775.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐
  • Jordan Love Over 3,350.5 passing yards (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐
  • Anthony Richardson Over 2,475.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • C.J. Stroud Over 3,175.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

NFL passing props 2023: Handicap breakdown

Here’s a quick breakdown of my handicapping process:

  • Create custom projections for passing yards and passing touchdowns
  • Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
  • Convert the probability to odds
  • Compare my odd with the numbers across our best live betting sites

Kenny Pickett Over 3,125.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM⭐⭐⭐

Not starting until Week 4 and sustaining a pair of in-game concussions took a toll on Pickett’s final stat line during his rookie season. The underwhelming numbers from his teammates didn’t help, either.

Despite tossing up a respectable 8.2 yard average target depth, his 6.2 yards per attempt ranked second lowest in the league. Additionally, Pickett’s 11.9 dropped-pass percentage was the fourth highest. 

Still, another full offseason to develop chemistry, alongside another step forward from wide receiver George Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth are further reasons for optimism.

Finally, I also value Pickett’s improvements as the 2022 season played out.

He posted his five highest passing grades per Pro Football Focus between Weeks 13 and 18. The Pittsburgh pass offense ranked ninth by DVOA during the stretch, per Football Outsiders, and Pickett also checked out sixth in adjusted EPA per play.

I have Pickett projected for 3,341 passing yards.

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesars
Over total3,300.53,125.53,125.53,250.5
Over odds+100-112-110-115
My Over odds-116-209-209-137
Expected Value7%28%29%8%

There’s a notable edge to be found betting this Over through BetMGM and to a slightly lesser degree via FanDuel.

Editor’s note: BetMGM has moved the total for Kenny Pickett’s passing yards to 3,299.5 (-115) as of Sept. 1.

Justin Fields Over 2,775.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel⭐⭐⭐

This is a pedestrian total, and Fields will have to either miss time or somehow negatively regress as a passer to fall shy. He averaged 162.1 passing yards per game over a 12-showing stretch from Weeks 4 through 17, and that prorates to 2,775.7 yards across 17 games.

The supporting cast around Fields is better, and another full offseason to further acclimatize to offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s offense will help. Chicago brought in a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver in D.J. Moore during the offseason, which will also reposition the rest of the pass-catchers into a more appropriate role relative to their skill set.

Scooping up offensive linemen Darnell Wright with the 10th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft was another plus.

Finally, I’m anticipating opposing defenses to make Fields and the Bears beat them through the air more this season. He ran for video-game numbers in 2022, so it’ll only take a slight uptick in pass attempts to cash in on this Over.

I project Fields to throw for 2,991 passing yards.

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesars
Over total2,850.52,775.52,899.52,950.5
Over odds-105-112-110-115
My Over odds-163-225-137-115
Expected Value21%31%10%0%

FanDuel is hanging an outlier total for Fields, and there’s a clear edge in taking advantage. This is especially true when looking at the tighter total and price available through Caesars.

Embed content Vhjj7NuYQkg image

Jordan Love Over 3,350.5 passing yards (+125 via DraftKings⭐⭐⭐

The Love era has arrived in Green Bay, and after three years of backup duty, the first-round selection of the 2020 NFL Draft has finally been handed the keys to the offense.

While what we know about Love as an NFL quarterback can fit under a block of cheese, the Packers will run out a veteran offensive line and one of the best running-back tandems in the league.

Unfortunately, the pass-catching corps can also snuggle in under the block of cheese alongside Love.

Green Bay will have sophomores Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs atop the wide receiver depth chart with 2023 second-rounder Jayden Reed projecting as the No. 3 at this stage of the game. The Packers used their first, second-round selection on unproven, but gifted tight end Luke Musgrave.

All the knowns and unknowns add up to my projection of 3,476 passing yards for Love.

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesars
Over total3,350.53,325.53,399.53,200.5
Over odds+125-112-110-115
My Over odds-153-199-133-250
Expected Value36%26%9%33%

And, this is where things become fun …

While Caesars has the lowest yardage total to clear, the -115 odds actually return a lower expected value than the +125 price for the higher total through DraftKings. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the Caesars route, but math is math, so it’s highway DraftKings for me.

Anthony Richardson Over 2,475.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

I’m betting on Richardson’s unrivaled athleticism here, and that the Indianapolis Colts won’t leave him on the sidelines long— if at all this season.

Richardson remains a raw, 21-year-old prospect and rookie peaks and valleys are ahead, but it’ll be coaching malpractice for the best athlete on the team to be handling the clipboard instead of the football.

The available passing-yards totals don’t align with Richardson playing all 17 games, and in fact, it’s not required for him to skyrocket over the low benchmark FanDuel is hanging.

I have Richardson projected for 2,783 passing yards, so there are currently no bad bets on the board. There’s just an incredibly cushy total to capitalize on through FanDuel.

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesars
Over total2,600.52,475.52,599.52,571.5
Over odds-120-112-120-115
My Over odds-165-234-165-181
Expected Value14%33%14%16%

Editor’s note: FanDuel has moved the total for Anthony Richardson’s passing yards to 2,700.5 (-112) as of Sept. 1.

C.J. Stroud Over 3,175.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

I have Stroud projected for 3,344 passing yards, with the Over 3,175.5 priced at -143. As a result, there’s a positive expected value of 11% attached to the -112 number through FanDuel.

DraftKings listing this total at a much higher 3,400.5 yards is also encouraging.

Admittedly, Stroud doesn’t have explosive playmakers at his disposal, and I anticipate the Houston Texans’ offense prioritizing the rushing attack with running backs Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary checking out as a solid one-two punch.

Still, I think Stroud opens the season as the starting quarterback and compiles his way Over this total.

Win $150 + NBA League Pass 🏀

New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $150 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Editor’s note: FanDuel has moved the total for C.J. Stroud’s passing yards to 3,075.5 (-112) as of Sept. 1.

Ready to get in on the action, Kentucky bettors?

Kentucky bettors can register to bet on sports soon! With the upcoming Kentucky sportsbooks launching, pre-launch offers are starting to appear. Kentucky sportsbook promos will be available on top soon-to-be-legal Kentucky sportsbook apps.

21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages