Who Will Start at QB for 49ers? Betting Odds & Predictions for Brock Purdy vs. Trey Lance Battle

All eyes are on the San Francisco 49ers' quarterback competition this offseason, as who wins the Brock Purdy vs. Trey Lance battle could come with huge ramifications on the 2023-24 NFL campaign. Read on as we break down what the betting odds tell us about this camp battle based on the latest NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

Now that we've reached the dog days of the sports calendar, it's time to turn our attention back to football with NFL training camps on the horizon. Perhaps the league's most significant camp battle will take place in San Francisco, with quarterbacks Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, and Sam Darnold all competing for the starting job.

Darnold seems like a long shot, while Purdy should be considered the favorite. Tight end George Kittle recently said it's Purdy's job to lose, according to Sports Illustrated. The biggest question tied to Purdy is his health, as he underwent surgery on his throwing elbow in March after suffering a UCL injury during the NFC Championship Game.

With Purdy's health up in the air, it's truly uncertain who will take the first regular-season snap for the 49ers. The position battle is critical though, as the 49ers are a serious contender in the Super Bowl odds, and their offense is capable of making most quarterbacks look extremely good.

To help get a better idea of who their starting passer will be in Week 1, let's take a look at the different markets through the best live betting sites to see what we can learn.

MVP odds

It is interesting that Lance is getting better MVP odds at four of our five best NFL betting sites, despite most people projecting Purdy to start at quarterback. That probably speaks to Lance's ceiling as a player, a fact even Kittle acknowledges.

Lance, who was selected with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, has made just four starts and eight appearances in his two seasons at the professional level. There's still a great deal of mystery connected to Lance's game-breaking potential, particularly given his dual-threat ability.

As such, bettors who believe in Lance's upside should consider the +5000 price tag at FanDuel on him to win the MVP Award. We know the 49ers can win a lot of games, as they've triumphed during 23 contests over the last two seasons. Lance was a popular MVP dark horse at this time last year when he was priced at +4000 during the summer and +2500 in the preseason.

But that doesn't mean you can't touch Purdy's MVP odds either, especially at +7500 through DraftKings. The 49ers' offense can make life easy on quarterbacks, as Purdy learned when he threw for 13 touchdowns and 1,374 yards across five starts to close out the 2022 regular season.

Passing yards leader

Given the uncertainty about who will be the starter, the best sports betting sites don't currently offer season-long props for either Purdy or Lance. But DraftKings does include the two in the NFL passing yards leader market. 

Unlike the MVP race, Purdy comes with a better chance to lead the league in passing yards than Lance. Purdy has been given a 1.41% implied probability at this price, with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert the rightful favorites.

Purdy averaged 274.8 passing yards per game during his 5-0 finish to the regular season as a starter. He then threw for 546 yards across two playoff contests before suffering an injury during the NFC title game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Lance, who's only priced better than Will Levis of the Tennessee Titans in this market, has thrown for 797 total yards during his two-year career.

Player-specific props

It becomes more difficult to glean any further information from the best sportsbooks about this quarterback competition after those two main markets. We need to look at particular ways to bet on each player, rather than seeing how they compare to each other in a given market.

DraftKings offers team specials for all 32 clubs, and Purdy is the lone quarterback featured for the 49ers.

He's been given +150 odds to throw for 350-plus passing yards in three-plus regular-season games in 2023, and that seems like the best way to bet on Purdy winning the job. The most yards Purdy has thrown for in an NFL game was his 332-yard performance in a wild-card win over the Seattle Seahawks. Purdy is also +1400 to finish with 5,000-plus regular-season passing yards via DraftKings.

As for Lance, the obvious way to bet on his success is in the Comeback Player of the Year race. DraftKings and FanDuel are the only shops with such odds, but Damar Hamlin is the clear-cut favorite entering the year.

However, Lance is an intriguing long-shot pick in that market while being listed at +5000 at FanDuel and +3500 through DraftKings. Those odds are similar to his MVP prices, and he might only need to be in the MVP conversation to win Comeback Player of the Year.

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