2023 NFL Wide Receiver Sleepers, Busts and Best Bets

The overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting is significant – so why not get two sets of advice in one place? We at Sportsbook Review have asked four of our top NFL betting analysts to offer their insight into the top wide receiver sleepers and busts, along with their top betting plays based on the latest NFL odds. Also, check out our top sleepers, busts, and best bets features for quarterbacks and running backs.

Wide receiver fantasy draft tactics might not be scrutinized to the same extent as running back strategies, but they're just as important. Finding the right mix of stud receivers who live up to their lofty billing and speculative plays who outperform their average draft position is the quickest path to a fantasy championship.

Have a look as four of our top NFL betting analysts share their thoughts on the 2023 NFL wide receiver landscape as part of our 2023 NFL betting guide based on the odds from our best sports betting apps (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Top 12 fantasy wide receivers by ADP

(1/2 PPR ADP courtesy Fantasy Football Calculator; receiving props via bet365; last updated Thursday, Aug. 24 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

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Wide receiver sleepers

Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans

Pick: Burks Over 725.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Even with nearly everything imaginable going wrong for Burks during his rookie season, he still flashed game-breaking athleticism. I'm projecting Burks for 846 receiving yards in Year 2, so I’d price this Over at -199 to present a positive expected value of 27% over the -110 line through DraftKings.

–– Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Kirk Over 5.5 receiving touchdowns (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kirk had eight receiving touchdowns in his first year with Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars but his 2023 betting line is down to 5.5 at DraftKings and 4.5 at FanDuel. I'll take the higher line for plus money. Jacksonville's addition of the returning Calvin Ridley is suppressing Kirk's betting total, but I'd expect Ridley's incoming target share to come from Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and the rest of a lackluster supporting cast more than the team's clear-cut No. 1 option in the passing game. We can also expect Lawrence to exceed 2022's 25 passing TDs.

–– Esten McLaren (SBR | Twitter/X)

Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders

Pick: Dotson Over 700.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Jahan Dotson operates under the shadow of Terry McLaurin but with a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy and a quarterback in Sam Howell who threw the ball all over the park at North Carolina, there should be enough production to go around in Washington. Caesars has this line at 775.5 yards, so we’ll gladly take the offering at DraftKings. 

–– Mike McClymont (SBR | Twitter/X)

Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Brown Over 800.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Arizona Cardinals will be unwatchable for much of 2023, and this pick is based in garbage-time fun. The Cards will need to air it out plenty while attempting comebacks, and Hollywood Brown is comfortable racking up yardage on short-to-intermediate routes. He finished with 91 grabs during the 2021 season for 1,008 yards, an average of just 11.1 yards per reception.

–– Sean Tomlinson (SBR | Twitter/X)

Wide receiver busts

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Kupp Under 10.5 receiving touchdowns (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kupp isn’t celebrating this much in 2023. I have him pegged for 8.5 receiving touchdowns, so I’d price this prop at -331 and with a huge positive expected value of 34%. Additionally, with FanDuel hanging Kupp’s touchdown total at 8.5, I’m all the more confident DraftKings is off the mark.

–– Neil Parker

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Lockett Under 5.5 receiving TDs (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At a modest 30 years old, Lockett suddenly finds himself as the old man out in a star-studded Seattle Seahawks passing offense run by Geno Smith. Smith's comeback 2022 season wasn't enough to convince me he can sustain three fantasy-worthy receivers. I'll trust the taller D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to get to the end zone more regularly.

–– Esten McLaren

DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans

Pick: Hopkins Under 850.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee is where veteran receivers go to die. Think Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, and Julio Jones. All failed to pan out with the Titans. The first two didn’t even record 100 yards with the team. DeAndre Hopkins will be the next in a long line of failed Tennessee receiver experiments.

–– Mike McClymont

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Evans Under 925.5 receiving yards (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tom Brady wasn’t exactly in his prime during the 2022 season. Still, the downgrade from him to Baker Mayfield will be significant, and it’s just one of many hurdles the Bucs face prior to the upcoming campaign. Similar to Brown’s situation with the Cardinals, there will be opportunities during garbage time and comeback attempts. But Chris Godwin will demand plenty of target volume too. 

–– Sean Tomlinson

Wide receiver best bets

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Godwin Over 800.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

This is a soft total by my numbers. Godwin has a set-in-stone role in the Tampa Bay passing attack, and I have him projected for 902 receiving yards. I’d price this Over at -177, so there’s a positive expected value of 21% based on my projection.

–– Neil Parker

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Chase to have the most regular season receiving yards (+750 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Chase is being mispriced in this market by FanDuel with DraftKings putting odds of +600 on the third-year star. The Bengals' crowded receiver room hasn't stopped QB Joe Burrow from targeting his college teammate often, leading to 2,501 yards in just 29 regular-season games. Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill are the other favorites in this market but they both play with inferior quarterbacks and their internal competition for targets got stiffer this offseason.

–– Esten McLaren

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+3000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

I’m in on the Zay Flowers hype. The rookie receiver has been drawing rave reviews from Baltimore Ravens camp and caught two passes for 37 yards and a touchdown in his only meaningful preseason appearance. He lands in a great situation, with Lamar Jackson looking to take bigger strides in his passing and Todd Monken infusing the offense with creativity.

–– Mike McClymont

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Metcalf Over 7.5 receiving touchdowns (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Metcalf receives a whole lot of targets, with his 141 in 2022 well ahead of the 117 given to Tyler Lockett. He’s easily Seattle’s leading red-zone option too, as Metcalf ranked second leaguewide in 2022 with 27 red-zone targets for a massive 60% of Seattle’s target share.

–– Sean Tomlinson

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