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Raiders vs. Broncos Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Cash in on the Adams Advantage

Neil Parker

Last Updated: September 10, 2023 2:45 PM EDT • 2 min 57 sec read.

Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has taken a deep dive based on the latest NFL odds across our best sports betting apps and offers his top Raiders- Broncos predictions and pick for Sunday’s AFC West showdown.

The Denver Broncos acquired quarterback Russell Wilson to lead them in the Mile High City last season, but after Wilson's first season struggles, the organization hired Sean Payton to be the head coach for the 2023 season. Surely, Denver won't end up as the lowest-scoring team in the NFL again, will they?

The Las Vegas Raiders also have their fair share of new faces, with Jimmy Garoppolo taking the helm in Year 1 to lead the offense, and they'll benefit from having running back Josh Jacobs in the mix after the NFL's rushing-yards leader agreed to a pay raise, ending his contract dispute with the club.

Here is our best Raiders-Broncos prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL Week 1 predictions, NFL Week 1 survivor picks, and NFL player props for Week 1.

Raiders vs. Broncos prediction

Davante Adams Over 5.5 receptions (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

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We’re landing a decreased total through Caesars.

The rest of our best NFL prop betting sites are showing the number at 6.5, so there’s an immediate edge in that regard. Additionally, I have Adams projected for 6.1 receptions, which would price this Over at -150. That leads to a positive expected value of 12%.

Adams gets a ton of targets, and I’m anticipating Garoppolo looking his way early and often Sunday. 

Finally, Adams thrived against Denver in 2022 with 16 receptions for a healthy 242 yards across two games, and shutdown cornerback Patrick Surtain II was no match for the spry receiver.

Join me in cheering on the Adams advantage Sunday.

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Raiders vs. Broncos best odds

Caesars (-115)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
6.56.56.55.56.5
+100+106+120-115+120

The outlier total drew me to this bet because I have the Over on 6.5 priced at +132 and carrying a negative expected value of 5% on the +120 price. Additionally, the best price for the Under 6.5 is -130 through DraftKings, and I grade that with just a 1% positive expected value.

Raiders vs. Broncos odds

Raiders vs. Broncos odds analysis

This spread opened with the Broncos trading at -3.5 through four of our five best sportsbooks. BetMGM was the exception with Denver listed at -3, but it's since moved to -3.5. Additionally, DraftKings and FanDuel moved to the key number of 4, but there's been a return to the consensus 3.5 as of Friday afternoon.

The total has dipped into the key range of 43-44, and it remains there across our best sports betting sites. It opened as high as 45 through DraftKings and FanDuel, but I’m not expecting significant moves leading into Sunday.

Raiders vs. Broncos game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: 73 degrees, 80% chance of precipitation, 7-mph N wind

Raiders-Broncos prediction made Friday, Sept. 8 at 4:30 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Neil Parker
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.