It was another profitable run for our NFL player props in Week 8, and we’re riding an 18-6 heater for 10.73 units over the past six weeks.
We endured a tough Sunday, but now we're looking to redeem ourselves ahead of Monday Night football.
NFL player props for Week 9
- Breece Hall Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
- Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
- Adam Thielen and Jonathan Taylor to combine for 180+ rush & rec yards (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
- Jordan Love Under 220.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
- Mike Evans anytime touchdown scorer (+170 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
- Patrick Mahomes 300+ passing yards (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
- George Pickens Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐ ✖️
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NFL player props for Week 9: Monday Night Football
Breece Hall Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Los Angeles Chargers are an average run defense at best, and Hall is coming off consecutive underwhelming showings with a total of just 56 rushing yards on 24 totes against the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants.
The New York Jets offensive line takes a lot of heat, and quarterback Zach Wilson remains a work in progress. Still, Hall is explosive. The OLine also grades well above average in run blocking per PFF, and checks out with the 15th-highest run-block win rate per ESPN.
I have Hall projected for 66.7 rushing yards, so I’d price this Over at -146 to present a positive expected value of 13% on the -110 bet365 price.
Our Mike Spector goes deeper into the Monday Night Football matchup with his Chargers vs. Jets predictions.
NFL player props for Week 9: Sunday
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
With four of his 12 receptions this season going for at least 20 yards, Valdes-Scantling can clear this total with a single catch. He’s pacing the Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers in offensive snap percentage and has been more involved in the offense the past two weeks with five receptions for 111 yards on nine targets.
I’m anticipating the Miami Dolphins focusing on KC tight end Travis Kelce, and Valdes-Scantling breaking open for at least one chunk play downfield. And, that’s all it will take for this prop to cash.
I have the second-year Chief projected for 22.1 receiving yards and would price the Over at -143. Based on my numbers, we’re landing a positive expected value of 13% compared to the -110 bet365 price.
See Anthony Wootton's Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction for more on this Sunday morning matchup in Frankfurt, Germany.
Patrick Mahomes 300+ passing yards (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
Tua may end up with more passing touchdowns, but Mahomes will likely end up with more passing yards. However, the price for Mahomes to have more yards than Tua doesn’t offer much value, considering Tagovailoa can put up crazy numbers in every game.
Therefore, we recommend playing Mahomes to have 300 or more passing yards. He has achieved this feat three times this season, and he has finished within 30 yards of 300 on two other occasions.
The Dolphins are allowing 221.5 passing yards per game, but they have benefitted from facing some weak offenses. Josh Allen recorded over 300 yards against them, and Jalen Hurts threw for 279. Based on those performances, how the Chiefs’ offense is run, and what Mahomes has already done this season, this alternate line provides a lot of value.
Pick made by Phil Wood; for more, see our Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patrick Mahomes NFL player props and Tyreek Hill NFL player props.
Adam Thielen and Jonathan Taylor to combine for 180+ rush & rec yards (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
The Carolina Panthers have leaned heavily on wide receiver Adam Thielen this season to help their rookie quarterback. The former Minnesota wideout is averaging 81 receiving yards as a Panther, leading the team in targets (70), receptions (57) and yards. He has posted three games of 100 or more receiving yards this year.
Carolina gets to take on a Colts’ defense that is giving up the eighth-most passing yards per game this season. In Week 8, New Orleans wide receiver Rashid Shaheed lit them up for 153 yards.
Since returning from his injury, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has gained 316 all-purpose yards in four games. However, his production has gained momentum these last two weeks. Taylor rushed for 75 yards against Cleveland, adding another 45 through the air. Last week, he ran for 95 yards against the Saints while tacking on another two receiving yards.
The Panthers are surrendering the fourth-most rushing yards in the league per game this season (139.4). Carolina has allowed four opposing running backs to gain at least 90 yards on the ground against them.
Pick made by Rodrigo Villagomez; for more, see his Colts vs. Panthers NFL player props.
Jordan Love Under 220.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been unable to get it done through the air in his last three games. During that span, he’s had two games of under 200 yards, including one against the Denver Broncos, who field the league's sixth-worst pass defense.
In the last three games when he's gone over 200 yards, most of that yardage has come with Green Bay down significantly. Last week against the Minnesota Vikings, his team trailed 24-3 in the fourth quarter before he led a 14-play 81-yard touchdown drive.
The Rams have struggled to pull away from teams this season, and if Stafford can’t play, then they may not lead in this game at all. That’s not good for Love, who is going up against a Los Angeles defense allowing just 218.5 passing yards per game.
Rams vs. Packers NFL player props made by Phil Wood.
Mike Evans anytime touchdown scorer (+170 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
Mike Evans has scored a touchdown in all but two games for the Buccaneers this season. Four touchdowns have come versus press coverage, which is the second-most in the league. The line for Evans’s receiving yards total in this matchup is 53.5, but the Texans only allow 236.1 passing yards per game this season, which is among the top ten pass defenses in the league. Evans has topped that total four times this year, but against this defense, I’d back Baker Mayfield’s primary target to find the endzone instead of playing the total.
Buccaneers vs. Texans NFL player props made by Anthony Wootton.
Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
This one is really simple. The Bengals lead the league in interceptions per game in 2023. And Allen has thrown at least one interception in each of his last four games.
The only reason this isn’t a five-star play is because the Bills could try to take advantage of the Bengals’ weak run defense. That would lead to fewer attempts from Allen, which would mean fewer chances to throw a pick.
Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow NFL player props made by Phil Wood.
NFL player props for Week 9: Thursday
George Pickens Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐ ✖️
This total has climbed leading into Thursday, so I’m not as confident in this bet as I was when there was a 48.5 available.
I have Pickens projected for 59.1 receiving yards and would price the Over 52.5 at -134. The difference in my numbers and the -110 bet365 odds is a positive expected value of 9%.
The Tennessee secondary is the defense's weakness, and the Titans allowed two Atlanta wide receivers to top this total in Week 8. Tennessee also traded its best defensive back, Kevin Byard, to the Philadelphia Eagles on Oct. 23, and it ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA, 26th in dropback EPA allowed, and 27th in dropback success rate.
I also value Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett being confirmed as the Week 9 starter.
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