Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions
In the upcoming game between the Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany, we provide our top NFL player prop predictions for Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes, utilizing the most favorable NFL odds available.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa currently leads the NFL in total passing yards and is the only player averaging over 300 passing yards per game. Additionally, he is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns with 18 and maintains an impressive average of 12.5 yards per completion, highlighting his exceptional performance in the passing game.
Patrick Mahomes endured a challenging game in Week 8 while failing to throw any touchdowns and instead throwing two interceptions, which contributed to his team's 24-9 loss against the Denver Broncos. Despite this performance, he maintains a strong position as the third-highest passer in the league in terms of passing yards per game.
Along with our Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction and Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL player props, here are our best Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for their Week 9 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop: Week 9
- Tua Tagovailoa to record more passing touchdowns (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes to finish with 300-plus passing yards (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 22.5 pass completions (+104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Tua Tagovailoa to record more passing touchdowns (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Tagovailoa has thrown for at least three touchdowns in four contests during 2023. Mahomes has hit that plateau just twice.
For as good as the Chiefs’ pass defense has been, they are tied for 19th in touchdown passes allowed per game. The Dolphins are tied for 25th in the same category, but they’re only 0.1 passing touchdowns per game behind the Chiefs.
Mahomes is favored in this category because of what the Dolphins have done against teams that are equal to or better than them. However, he and the Chiefs’ offense haven’t been impressive against even inferior opponents this year. They’ve scored 30 points just twice and 20 or fewer three times. At even-money, take the league leader in touchdown passes to defeat Mahomes.
I'm also counting on Tagovailoa to lean on his No. 1 receiver with my Tyreek Hill NFL player props for Sunday morning's matchup.
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Patrick Mahomes to finish with 300-plus passing yards (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tua may end up with more passing touchdowns, but Mahomes will likely end up with more passing yards. However, the price for Mahomes to have more yards than Tua doesn’t offer much value, considering Tagovailoa can put up crazy numbers in every game.
Therefore, we recommend playing Mahomes to have 300 or more passing yards. He has achieved this feat three times this season, and he has finished within 30 yards of 300 on two other occasions.
The Dolphins are allowing 221.5 passing yards per game, but they have benefitted from facing some weak offenses. Josh Allen recorded over 300 yards against them, and Jalen Hurts threw for 279. Based on those performances, how the Chiefs’ offense is run, and what Mahomes has already done this season, this alternate line provides a lot of value.
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Tua Tagovailoa Under 22.5 pass completions (+104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Tagovailoa has just three games with 22 or fewer completions this season. While that makes this a risky play, the price makes it worthwhile.
Considering Tua has nearly 100 yards more than any other quarterback, it may be shocking to learn that he’s tied for sixth in the league in completions. A lot of that has to do with the Dolphins’ incredible big-play capabilities. They’re currently first in the NFL in yards per play by a full yard over everyone else, and they’re second in the league in passing yards per completion.
Tagovailoa always ends up around this 22.5 number. Last week was the first time he completed 30 passes in a game this season. In Week 1, he completed 28 passes. In the six games in between, he completed between 21 and 25 passes in every game. Another vital stat to consider: the Chiefs allow just 19.4 completions per game, fifth-best in the league.
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Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 11/3/2023 at 12:19 p.m. ET.
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